The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

Just so everybody knows, I am trying something new with this article, it was written by Judson Coleman who I met on Twitter (@jacalope37) and expressed interest in someday doing what I do here, which is writing football articles.  He has written a very well thought out and interesting article into what he thinks the Vikings are thinking (hmmm don't know if the double "think" works there but I will find out) with draft day 2011 fast approaching.  And if anyone else is looking to do the same thing then you know how to contact me, I am very open to anyone contributing to this website in almost any fashion.  So let's get to the point, completely unedited by me, here is Judson's article....

The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

by Judson Coleman

With the NFL draft less than two weeks away, I don't remember a time when the Vikings draft plans were surrounded by more questions.  Obviously the labor dispute has a lot to do with this and has a particularly large impact on teams with holes at quarterback like the Vikings.  With no opportunity to tap in to the free agent market, quarterback needy teams are left with the draft as their only current option to fill that need.  This is also a big part of why a draft deep at the position could challenge the 1983 draft class' record of 6 quarterback selected in round one.  Further complicating things for the Vikings is the location of their picks in rounds one and two.  The consensus top two quarterbacks, Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be off the board before the Vikings 12th pick in round one and the only other player in the discussion at this point is Washington's Jake Locker who most feel would be a reach at this point.  Locker, whose stock seems to be on the rise again after a rocky senior season that saw his status as the number one quarterback prospect erased, is rumored to be a Vikings favorite who some within the organization feel resembles Brett Favre.  Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, TCU's Andy Dalton, FSU's Christain Ponder and Nevada's Colin Kapernick round out the rest of the second tier of quarterbacks.  Each of these signal callers, with the exception of Kaepernick, are expected to be off the board before the Vikings selection at 43 in round two.  So what are the Vikings to do?  Here's my attempt to answer that question through exploring their options as draft day approaches.

Coach Leslie Frazier has made it clear that he wants a quarterback of the future and his goal is to draft and develop that player.  If the Vikings are to accomplish this they will have to find a way to select one of the five players mentioned above and smart money says they don't feel comfortable waiting to see whats left at 43.  Naturally a trade seems to be in order, whether it be a move down in round one or a move up from the second.  The Vikings have the additional picks necessary to make a move even without the third round pick shipped to the Patriots in exchange for four weeks of Randy Moss.  While making a trade is easier said than done, I expect them to make a move for a number of reasons.  I don't think the team loves Locker enough to reach for him at 12 and bypass their focus on drafting the best player available.  The team has mentioned a number of times that they would like to recover a third round pick in this draft and a trade down from 12 could accomplish this.  While the team was rumored to be hot after Kaepernick at the Senior Bowl, there's been no recent buzz surrounding him and the team.  Perhaps more importantly, he's the rawest of this group of quarterbacks and I don't feel the team is willing to wait what most feel will be two years before he's ready to step in as a starter.  I think this effectively eliminates Kaepernick from consideration unless the Vikings are unable to make a trade and are left with either he or Iowa's Ricky Stanzi as a consolation prize.  This leaves Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder as their targets in this draft.  Based on mock drafts and recent buzz, Locker's draft range seems to be somewhere between Washington's pick at 10 and Seattle's at 25.  Of the other three, Mallett seems to have the highest draft ceiling at Miami's pick at 15, Dalton's seems to be to Seattle at 25 and Ponder's is likely at the top of round two.  Each of these three is expected to be off the board no later than Washington's round two selection at 41.  So, you can see the Vikings will have to find their way in to the mid to late first round in order to get the player they want unless they feel Locker is the best player at 12, which as mentioned above I don't think they do.  

We've effectively broken things down to four players and their draft ranges.  The next step, figuring out who best fits the Vikings offense, is tricky.  Why?  Well, we don't know much about the Vikings offense.  About all Coach Frazier and new Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave have shared is that the offense won't be bound by one system and will be built around the skill sets of the players.  While it hasn't been said, the expectation is that the offense will move away from the west coast version the previous regime ran to something closer to what Musgrave ran in Atlanta with Matt Ryan.  Ponder is said to be a perfect fit for the west coast offense and I expect that and his lack of arm strength puts him at the end of the Vikings wish list.  Dalton continues to rise up draft boards despite not wowing you with any part of his game other than simply winning and it's worth noting that the Vikings brought him to their recent top 30 prospect visit.  He doesn't possess the arm strength of Locker or Mallett, but he also has zero on or off field issues, making him the safest pick of the three.  I don't sense that this is enough to rank him ahead of Locker or Mallett and their considerably higher potential however, and feel the Vikings are eyeing one of these two as their quarterback of the future.  Locker's competitiveness, drive and work ethic put him at the top of the list in spite of his less than stellar completion percentage and overall performance.  Many of his issues can be attributed to only being a true quarterback for the last two years of his college career and more importantly being forced to carry a team that was seriously lacking in talent.  Mallett on the other hand had plenty of success on the field in college football's toughest conference, but his rumored character concerns off the field drop him slightly behind Locker.  He possesses without question the strongest arm in this draft class and if not for his limited athletic ability, he might be the top prospect from a pure quarterbacking standpoint.  Teams can survive poor character at other positions, but not at quarterback where you are often the face of the franchise and expected to be a leader on and off the filed.  Mallett's teammates and coaches at Arkansas gave him rave reviews which make these concerns seem to be more of a maturity thing that he can grow out of.  I'm sure the Vikings explored this thoroughly when they hosted Mallett at their top 30 visit.  This leaves us with a draft board of Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder, any of whom the Vikings will have to make a trade to get.

The Vikings have said they are eyeing defensive end, offensive tackle, quarterback, safety and possibly even wide receiver at 12.  Reading through the smoke screen that's so prevalent this time of year, you can break that down further to DE, QB or trade down.  From a value standpoint there is no safety worth taking that high, their interest in offensive tackles I believe is overblown and a story for another day, and taking a receiver would effectively guarantee Sidney Rice isn't coming back and I don't believe they want to burn that bridge.  I do believe that the Vikings are very interested in Robert Quinn and Da'Quan Bowers at 12, and if Quinn is available I think they take him without question.  It's more likely that Bowers will still be available after a recent questions about the health of his knee have driven his stock down.  I think the Vikings would be more than happy with him but, I see them exploring trade down options in this scenario, banking on a team jumping at the chance to move up for a top 5 talent.  If neither is there, they'll focus entirely on trading down with reaching for Locker as the backup plan.  If Quinn or Bowers is the pick at 12, I fully expect that the team will try to trade back in to round one with possible targets being New England at 17 and any number of teams at the back end of the round beginning with New Orleans at 24.  If unable to make a move, they take whats left over at 43, likely Kaepernick, or if they miss out on the quarterback run entirely look at tackle, safety or defensive tackle.  As you can see, things can go any number of directions, but I think you can bank on the Vikings doing everything in their power to come away with a quarterback before pick 43.  I could be right or I could be completely wrong, but that's the unpredictable nature the draft.  The only thing you can count on is that it starts on April 28th, and for this Viking's fan that can't come soon enough.

How Two Arkansas O-Linemen will benefit in the NFL due to Bobby Petrino's offense

While it may seem that I am singling out Razorbacks to talk about in my articles lately, it is.  The reason is because I have rarely missed their games in the past 10+ years (especially since Petrino took over and there games are actually on TV in my area) and I know about them, so I am going to write what I know.  In a previous article I talked a lot about how Bobby Petrino's offense greatly benefited Ryan Mallett, and D.J. Williams, well it benefits most all the players on the offensive side of the ball, and since they have a couple of tackles and what I consider to be an elite Tight End available in the draft I thought I would talk about how they were helped also.

Another position that benefited from Petrino's offense is the linemen, specifically the tackles, and to a lesser extent the guards.  For this exercise we are focusing on the two tackles that are draft eligible:  DeMarcus Love and Ray Dominguez.  In Petrino's offense there is not a "left tackle" and a "right tackle" there is the "strong tackle" and the "weak tackle".  The tackles are constantly switching sides trying to take advantage of specific match ups the defense gives them.  For a tackle (even though Dominguez will probably be a guard in the NFL) this means that both guys have experience playing with either hand down, and will be comfortable playing on either side of the line in the NFL.  And we all know that NFL coaches value a "swing tackle" or any versatile player (especially O-linemen) very much at the pro level.  This gives NFL teams flexibility, and increased continuity if there is an injury on the line, it's another aspect that gives NFL coaches more control (and NFL coaches are super control freaks).  Another big advantage these two players have is that at Arkansas they ran a lot of zone blocking which translates to quite a few teams in the NFL.

Neither one of these guys is expected to be a high pick, I project them both to be mid-round guys (3-5 for Love and 5-7 for Dominguez), but they bring other assets to the table.  For DeMarcus Love he has good size for a left tackle, but will probably play right tackle in the league, but his work ethic on and off the field are unrivaled, along with his dedication to community service, he is quiet but leads by example.  Ray Dominguez on the other hand is to slow with to short of arms and not powerful enough to be an effective tackle in the NFL at this point.  Given some time in an NFL weight room I believe he will be at most an effective Right Guard in the NFL, and at the worst he will be a great insurance policy as a guy that can line up at many spots on the line.

So no matter which way you slice it these two guys provide good value in this draft.

Why Ryan Mallett is my hands down #1 QB in the 2011 Draft

I have openly said before that I think the hands down, no questions asked #1 overall QB in this upcoming draft is Ryan Mallett, and I am not saying this as a Razorback "homer", in fact I am taking my "hog glasses" off to write this piece.  I will go ahead and openly admit that as an Arkansas Alumnus and die hard Razorback fan, that I do have a bias toward Razorback players, but right now I am writing a completely unbiased piece about the advantages that Ryan Mallett has going into the draft because of Bobby Petrino's offense. 
Why do I believe Ryan Mallett is the best QB in the draft?  Well he came out of Bobby Petrino's pro-style offense at Arkansas.  Yes, it is an "open style" pro offense, but a pro offense none the less.  For Mallett it gave him experience calling plays in the huddle and then giving him the freedom to change them at the line of scrimmage, just like an NFL offense.  He would be given a play to call in the huddle, and at the same time he would be given another play or two that he could audible to at the line of scrimmage depending on what the defense showed him.  Did he make some bad audibles, especially in some big games in college? Yes.  But it also gave him the experience and the tools to do it.  Now compare this to a QB like Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton, these guys were essentially given a formation and half a play call to make in the huddle.  When they reached the line of scrimmage, and saw how the defense was set, the players would all turn their heads and look to the sidelines where there would be 5-10 coaches or backup players making a myriad of hand signals, gestures, or holding up signs that would tell each player what to do, including the QB, so at least Mallett has already had plenty of "on the job training".  So essentially the coaches are reading the defense and telling the individual players what they should do.  So how does that translate to the NFL?  It doesn't.  Does that mean that in 3-5 years Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert won't be a better QB than Ryan Mallett?  No it doesn't, it just means that they have a much steeper learning curve, and maybe in 2 years the team that drafts them finds out that they just do not have the ability to read a defense at all, ever.  Then the team is set back a few years and has to start all over at the most important position on the field.

There are some questions out there about the character of Mallett, and I have heard some of them myself, but most of them come from him being labeled as "cocky" which is not necessarily a bad trait for an NFL QB.  Other concerns are that of past drug use, while I did hear of some "marijuana use" in college by him, the majority of players in the NFL either did use or still use to some extent, it does not mean that it is a problem (heck a lot of non-NFL people use it on a regular basis and most tried it in college).  At the most I believe he just needs a solid support system at the next level (which all teams should be providing to their rookies anyways, except the Bengals of course).  I think the background of his parents, both are teachers and his dad is a football coach, should be viewed as a positive by most NFL clubs.  I do not think his leadership can be challenged, not only did he turn himself into a leader at Arkansas by his final year, I read numerous reports of him at the combine being the leader of his QB group and also of other players congregating around him because of his leadership qualities, and these are future NFL players so he should have no problem commanding an NFL locker room or huddle. 

I did not touch on his physical abilities much in this piece because I think by now everybody knows there is not much to talk about there.  He has the height to see over even the tallest offensive linemen and clearly see the field and plays develop.  His arm strength is unparalleled and once he in the NFL will be regularly talked about as one of, if not the, strongest arm in the league.  He can make all the throws with ease, and his accuracy is only questioned when he has to throw on the move (even then there is not much bad you can say), and with some work it is an easily fixable problem at the next level.  While he may have been ridiculed as of late due to a slow even for O-line standards 40 yard dash, he moves around the pocket very well and has solid, though not spectacular footwork.  He is not a QB that will make plays with his feet, his arm strength, mechanics, and even footwork makes up for his lack of athletic ability.

Of course, even though Mallett came from a pro system and appears to be a solid leader it does not guarantee success at the pro level,  but in my opinion it gives him a distinct advantage over other college QB's, combine that with his throwing ability and other physical tools, and it looks to me like you have a pretty sure bet of a player that will be effective in the NFL.