Q & A: What is the safest Position In The Draft?

By:  Bobby Shores
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Question:  With the 2012 NFL Draft coming up, the Cowboys needing to fill multiple holes and with multiple players that could/should be available at those positions of need when they pick at #14 (Courtney Upshaw-OLB, David DeCastro-G, Dre' Kirkpatrick/Janoris Jenkins/Alfonzo Denard-CB, Mark Barron S); what do you consider to be the safest position in the 1st round of the draft?

ReclinerQB Thoughts:  The first thought that came to mind when I heard this question was interior lineman, so I thought I would do some quick research and look at the interior offensive linemen (guards and centers) taken in the first round for the past 14 years (all the way back to 1998). Remember I did this fairly quickly and am only picking players that were drafted as interior linemen, not players that were drafted as tackles and then moved to the interior line (Leonard Davis and Robert Gallery for example), and I am also basing this strictly off what I know of the player and not advanced scouting, if I run into a player I am not very familiar with then I will do a quick search.

1. Verdict Still Out-Mike Pouncey(2011)-15-Dolphins - Was playing very well until his season was ended with an ankle injury.
2. Verdict Still Out-Danny Watkins(2011)-23-Eagles - Watkins was expected to be able to contribute immediately, but struggled and was benched early in the season and did not see the field again until late. Obviously way to early to make a determination on someone after only 1 year, and I believe that the lockout severely hurt the 2011 rookie class.
3. Good-Mike Iupati(2010)-17-Niners - Instant starter and has been very impressive since being drafted, quick, strong and works hard.
4. Good-Maurkice Pouncey(2010)-18-Steelers - Instant All-Pro and instantly one of the best Centers in the league.
5. Good-Alex Mack(2009)-21-Browns - Pro Bowl Center and one of the better Centers in the league, will be a stalwart on the Browns offensive line.
6. Good-Ben Grubbs(2007)-29-Ravens - Been a solid starter since entering the league and will be the 2nd best guard in free agency this year behind Carl Nicks.
7. Good-Davin Joseph(2006)-23-Bucs - Resigned with the Bucs last year on a $50+ million dollar deal which shows that he is one of the better guards in the league.
8. Good-Nick Mangold(2006)-29-Jets - Probably the best Center in the league, 'Nuff Said!
9. Average-Chris Spencer(2005)-26-Seahawks - Probably the worst player on this list, he is an average player, nothing more, nothing less.
10. Good-Logan Mankins(2005)-32-Patriots - While he had kind of a down year, or at least a down 2nd half to the season he is one of the best guards (I am kinda getting tired of typing nearly the same thing every time).
11. Average-Jeff Faine(2003)-21-Browns - He has played for a long time in the league and played well, in fact he played better after the Browns traded him earning a Pro Bowl nod as a Saint (of course the Browns traded him before his prime....surprise!)
12. Average-Kendall Simmons(2002)-30-Steelers - Had some good years, sandwiched between numerous injuries, probably would have been much better if not for injuries 
13. Good-Steve Hutchinson(2001)-17-Seahawks - While his game is finally starting to tail off, he was the premier offensive guard in the NFL for many many many years.
14. Good-Damien Woody(1999)-17-Patriots - Good player for a lot of years, eventually playing all positions on the offensive line during his career, best years were probably with the Patriots (except Shotgun snaps)
15. Good-Alan Faneca(1998)-26-Steelers - Future Hall of Famer

Wow! Wow! Wow! Wow! So I do not even think I will check other positions, as interior line is BY FAR the safest position in the draft, and it is not even close!! There is basically about 1 taken per year in the first round of the draft, and I don't consider any of them to be "busts", there are 7 of them that are/were/will be perennial All-Pro and Pro Browl Players (Faneca, Hutchinson, Mankins, Mangold, Iupati, Ma. Pouncey and Mi. Pouncey), with most of the others having at least one Pro Bowl appearance on their resume. In fact, I would label only Chris Spencer as not living up to expectations, and the notes I have on him (2004 was the first year I really got into the draft) say that he was a reach at #26, and realistically was maybe a second rounder but probably a third rounder.

Because interior linemen are not valued as highly as other positions, it means that only the "Best of the Best"
 are taken in the first round, and teams do not "reach/project" as much, and the general consensus is that you can get an impact player in the first and get nearly as good quality player for your interior offensive line in the second and later rounds (which is not entirely true).

The person that asked this question, did so on the basis of whether or not the Cowboys should draft Stanford Guard David DeCastro at #14 if he is available, which looking at this list he would be as no interior lineman has been taken higher than #15 in the last 15 years. I said well I think taking DeCastro would be a "safe pick", as I have seen no glaring weakness in his game and I think he would fit very well in the Cowboys scheme.

So I would not be disappointed if the Cowboys took DeCastro at #14 as the numbers tell me there is about a 93% success rate, and I will go on a limb and say its about 98% if you do not reach for the player. I believe that DeCastro would form one of the best sides of a line in the NFL for at least 10 years if you teamed him with rookie sensation Tyron Smith (Think Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson). While it is not as big a need position as say cornerback or pass rusher, he will be the closest thing to a "Guarantee" in this draft.

I am even going to start picking the best interior lineman in every single draft and calling him the "safest pick in the draft" and I think I will be right 90% of the time. Anytime you get a 10 year starter in the first round, then you are doing good.

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Q & A: Should Carl Nicks Be A Cowboy?

By:  Bobby Shores

While I am still working on my Breakdown Series, unfortunately my paying job has kept me busier than anticipated and not allowed me to make the progress I have wanted on that series and it takes quite a bit of time and research to put one of those together. So in the meantime I am going to start doing a question and answer article to get some new information out there (well I am taking questions that I either read on other sites, hear on radio or have people I know ask me and answer them). I have no name for this column and hope to maybe post quick little blurbs every day or every couple of days, please leave possible name suggestions in the comments or contact me through email, twitter, facebook, etc.

Also send me questions about anything and everything football!!

Question:  I have heard lots of people (from every Cowboys website, Cowboys radio/podcast segment, Cowboys fan that I know) saying in one form or another that the Cowboys MUST go after free agent Guard Carl Nicks, NO MATTER WHAT.

ReclinerQB Thoughts:  Was Guard really the weakest position we had last year? Was it even the weakest position on the offensive line? In my opinion, not even close (Center was the weakest offensive position), yes they had some problems with consistency, and by that I mean having the same people playing from week to week. I even believe that some of the struggles that Doug Free had this year can be directly traced back to the revolving door at left guard, the team went through Bill Nagy, Kyle Kosier (before he settled in at Right Guard) Derrick Dockery, Montrae Holland and even David Arkin from the preseason on. It is very hard for a tackle to get comfortable when he is constantly having to adjust to the different style of player next to him, especially when some of them are inexperienced (both in the NFL and the style of offense you run).

With all that said, signing Carl Nicks would be a huge upgrade for just about any team as he is one of the best guards in the NFL, and at only 26, is not even in his prime. That means that there will be a lot of teams out there that will bid his price up, and there are a lot of teams that have more cap space than the Cowboys. Whichever team signs Nicks will undoubtedly be making him the highest paid guard in the history of the NFL, and he will be that teams starting guard for 5-7 years (I believe he will want a 4-5 year contract so that he can get another MONSTER payday when he is 30-31 years old, so while the contract may be publicized as a "7 year deal" it will probably be only a 4-5 year deal, realistically).

As I said on my Guard Breakdown, I (and from what I hear people in the Cowboys organization) believe that Arkin will be a starting guard in the NFL, and the team also thinks highly of Nagy (me not so much at Guard but maybe Center), and we have to remember that none of the rookies had anywhere near a regular off season due to the lockout. I think that the jump we will see in some of these players from last year to this year will be HUGE as they will have a full off season to watch film, work in the weight room, study playbooks and work with their coaches.

I am willing to go out on a limb and say that the Cowboys should only pursue Nicks if they can get him at a decent price. I would be more comfortable going after a more reasonably priced Guard in free agency (Ben Grubbs or Dan Connolly) to start at one spot and letting Arkin, Holland and Dockery battle in training camp for the other spot and keeping one of the veterans for depth (preferably Holland as I believe him and Fiammetta were the biggest reason our running game took off). In this scenario I believe we give Kosier a chance to win the starting center job as he made many of the line calls already last year and then draft a center to groom for the future (unless we can somehow land a top center in free agency).

I agree with most people that we need improved play from our interior linemen, unlike most people I believe that we have the players already on our roster, they just did not have a chance to develop because of the lockout, and we do not need to break the bank on a guard, we just need to add a strategic piece or two. The bulk of our cap space should be used to upgrade our defensive line and secondary.

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How Two Arkansas O-Linemen will benefit in the NFL due to Bobby Petrino's offense

While it may seem that I am singling out Razorbacks to talk about in my articles lately, it is.  The reason is because I have rarely missed their games in the past 10+ years (especially since Petrino took over and there games are actually on TV in my area) and I know about them, so I am going to write what I know.  In a previous article I talked a lot about how Bobby Petrino's offense greatly benefited Ryan Mallett, and D.J. Williams, well it benefits most all the players on the offensive side of the ball, and since they have a couple of tackles and what I consider to be an elite Tight End available in the draft I thought I would talk about how they were helped also.

Another position that benefited from Petrino's offense is the linemen, specifically the tackles, and to a lesser extent the guards.  For this exercise we are focusing on the two tackles that are draft eligible:  DeMarcus Love and Ray Dominguez.  In Petrino's offense there is not a "left tackle" and a "right tackle" there is the "strong tackle" and the "weak tackle".  The tackles are constantly switching sides trying to take advantage of specific match ups the defense gives them.  For a tackle (even though Dominguez will probably be a guard in the NFL) this means that both guys have experience playing with either hand down, and will be comfortable playing on either side of the line in the NFL.  And we all know that NFL coaches value a "swing tackle" or any versatile player (especially O-linemen) very much at the pro level.  This gives NFL teams flexibility, and increased continuity if there is an injury on the line, it's another aspect that gives NFL coaches more control (and NFL coaches are super control freaks).  Another big advantage these two players have is that at Arkansas they ran a lot of zone blocking which translates to quite a few teams in the NFL.

Neither one of these guys is expected to be a high pick, I project them both to be mid-round guys (3-5 for Love and 5-7 for Dominguez), but they bring other assets to the table.  For DeMarcus Love he has good size for a left tackle, but will probably play right tackle in the league, but his work ethic on and off the field are unrivaled, along with his dedication to community service, he is quiet but leads by example.  Ray Dominguez on the other hand is to slow with to short of arms and not powerful enough to be an effective tackle in the NFL at this point.  Given some time in an NFL weight room I believe he will be at most an effective Right Guard in the NFL, and at the worst he will be a great insurance policy as a guy that can line up at many spots on the line.

So no matter which way you slice it these two guys provide good value in this draft.