So They Had a Draft? What's That Mean For Yours?

By: Matt Prendergast

Hey kids! Long time no talk....been busy with my macrame sculptures and innovations in the field of 'sitting around', but we're at that time....WELCOME TO THE RELAUNCH OF FANTASY CORNER AT RECLINERQB!

Yes, I know. It's June. And I hear you: 'Why in the good gosh darn would I think about my fantasy football league in June? I have Kobe Beef and British Colombian Salmon on my new Big Green Egg! THESE THINGS ARE GETTING RUINED WHILE I READ THIS! Also, please don't ask why I invested well over twelve-hundred dollars specifically on this get-together with my neighbor who has that kick-ass riding mower. That dude needs to know who's the boss, that's all.'

And that kind of attitude is exactly why you take seventh every freaking year in your re-draft league.

Now. Right now. This is when you begin to plan....and that's why ReclinerQB.com is here today; to lovingly take care of you. So let's get to the point of caressing of your wondering mind in regard to the newly christened 'changers of the game'!  Specifically, how should you be approaching the big-named players that scattered throughout the league in last month's NFL Draft?

THAT WHICH YOU DO NOT EXECUTE:

'I may not even put on my helmet the whole year'

1) DO NOT DRAFT ANDREW LUCK - Certainly deserving of his destined position as 'first pick of the whole entire draft OMG!'. Also certainly not deserving of any of your picks in your fantasy draft. And by that I mean: you'd be much better off using your eighth round pick on Alex Smith, or Blaine Gabbert, or possibly a punter.

Did you see the Colts last year? I'm being serious, did you watch ANY of their games, even for five minutes? That is a HORRIBLE team. In one of those 'maybe if we close our eyes for seven years it'll be all right' definitions of 'horrible'.  Peyton Manning might get my vote for 'All-Time MVP of the NFL Ever' for the fact that he clearly covered a nearly-incomprehensible number of holes on that team. And those holes? This year with even more gaping power.

Oh yes, and to welcome Andrew in? They let everybody even halfway decent go. Except for Reggie Wayne, who passed by the deserved 'I just want to win another ring' exit strategy in lieu of choosing the 'I won't get hit the next two years because this guy won't have time to find me' route. Smart choice. Oh, and Dwight Freeney, who doesn't catch footballs.

Vintage Double D:
Sure hands across the middle for victory.

2) DO NOT DRAFT ANY OF THE ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS -  But you're saying 'remember AJ Green last year'? Yes I do. I also remember two other things: a) he was available in 80% of my leagues in week 2, and b) He didn't do one god-freaking thing to help out during the playoff run.  Now granted, I play primarily in Non-PPR leagues, so I may have a grudge against dudes that only score one touchdown the last six weeks, but that's me. (Don't come at me with your Julio Jones nonsense, btw, that was an aberration of a rookie WR season).

Who's the biggest impact from-out-of-nowhere WR this year? Some dude you didn't even think about, that's who. (See: Cruz, Victor) Truth being truth, you should easily pick up ANY of the rookie WRs before week three, so use that draft choice you're thinking about in round eleven on  Donald Driver (the only GB receiver to actively participate in 'catching' during their last playoff game), or Santana Moss (yes, I said that out loud) or even Whatever Bears' Cast-off Ends Up the #3 Wideout on the Vikings (This year it's Jerome Simpson! Wait, he's not a former Bear! Tricky, Vikings....). I still prefer any veteran in a situation where they can maybe shine early to a rook with breakout potential at the start of the season. Because the best rookie receiver will have been either taken way too high, or not taken at all.

THAT WHICH YOU DO EXECUTE:

'I said: Where's. My. GATORADE. AT. REX?'

1) DRAFT RGIII - Okay, I say this with a caveat emptor: where you should take him, you won't get him. The absolutely perfect 'Cam Newton Part II' selection, but because the Redskins have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, he'll be taken in the fifth or sixth round of your draft, and by a guy who's intending on starting him. Let that go.

But on the off-chance that Robert Griffin the Third is still there in the ninth round: just do that thing. And then sit back and be patient, for his time will come, maybe even early and often.

The 'Skins brought a lot of hungry receiving talent in - rather than break the bank on one marquee dude (like Vincent Jackson), they went with a couple of young guys that have shown some flash, but still have big axes to grind in Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan - with Santana Moss still hanging around to provide the veteran stability, and the critical re-upping of Fred Davis (plus Cooley's still hobbling about), Washington put a lot of little pieces together nicely to help aid RG3 in his quest to make Cam Newton 2011 look like a chump.  Good luck to you.

Has Hillis beat in hat/hair/glasses category already

2) GO AHEAD WITH THAT TRENT RICHARDSON IDEA, AND PLAN ON STARTING HIM - Let's think about this, rationally. The Browns have next to nothing going for them. Still. A QB Battle between  Colt Malt Liquor and Red Wheeden? There's no winners there, not this year. There's losers, though, namely Greg Little and Mohammed Massaquoi (who, let's be honest, has looked like a potentially shiny diamond ring the last two years primarily because you're viewing him inside a giant box brimming over with dung).

But the one thing the Browns can kinda do is block, son. Ask Peyton Hillis or Montario Hardesty - in the last two years, both had flashes of world-conquering magic as Cleveland Freaking Browns. Barring a catastrophic leg injury between now and week one, they've got a headlining act in Richardson - and even if he's somehow healthy this year, Montario isn't going to be cutting in on those carries much.

An additional plus point here: since he is a rookie on the Browns, unless you're playing in a dynasty or die-hards league, he'll be there in the fourth or fifth round. That's solid value for what should be a weekly starting 2nd RB with minimal time-sharing. Just hope to god he doesn't get injured like every other Cleveland RB draft pick in the last six years.

NOTE: This is advice for your 2nd RB only. If you decide to go 'all in' on any Brown BEFORE the fourth round, at the VERY earliest, I wish you a tremendous day at your job taste-testing used gum for 'flavor retentionability'.

So there you have it: Four early rookie questions answered....come early August, when the other league owners are just picking up their Pro Football Weekly preview mags, you'll already be winning the draft.

More soon.....

Follow Matt on Twitter:  @amazingmattyp.  He is filled with jolly things

Don't Forget to Follow ReclinerQB's other contributors on Twitter:  @ReclinerQB, @heartsfootball, @SonnyPrier, @CoreyDoiron, and @mwyche2 . If you don't, Terrell Owens is going to coach your kid's Pop Warner team this year.

2011 NFL Draft "All-Bust" List

While most NFL writers are working on their "mock drafts" right now (which 99% of them will be blown up before the 5th pick) I am going a different route.  I am going to do my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Bust" List, which is definitely subject to change after the draft depending on where people go though I believe some will be busts no matter where they are drafted.  Since I am not a scout or established writer with "sources" and access to game film, this list is based largely on my perception, and the games I did see these players play in (since I watch a lot of football I have seen these guys play quite a bit). So here we go, and by the way this list is not in any particular order, even though I do think that Jake Locker will be a bust no matter where he goes (even if he does play in Shanahan's bootleg heavy offense).

1)  Jake Locker-QB-Washington - He had a very overrated college career and I believe all the pre-draft hype on him has been centered around the fact that he was "supposedly a #1 overall pick prospect" (cough-cough McShay) coming into his Senior year.  But honestly what NFL team would draft a guy that I consider a 3rd-tier version of Tim Tebow (Who I did not think was worthy of a 1st round pick).  He was unable to make his team a winner (which I thought everybody considered a "Must Have" trait of an elite QB), his team won an unspectacular 32% of their games over his 4 year career there, I figure an "elite" QB should muster a few more than 16 wins over his college career.  Also his senior year he only competed:
-55.4% of his passes for 6.82 YPA(Yards Per Attempt) compared to
-64.7% & 9.41 YPA for Ryan Mallett,
-63.4% & 6.71 YPA for Blaine Gabbert and
-66.1% & 10.19 for Cam Newton (man this stat makes Newton look better than I think he is, I will have to blow this out of the water with further analysis in another article)

Another issue I have with Locker is his durability, he has taken a beating over his career thus far and suffered some injuries due to his style of play, and the guys hit a lot harder at the next level.....  The few times I saw him play I was always expecting big things because of what I heard from ESPN (cough-cough McShay) and instead I saw a guy that seemed slow to pick up on what the defense was doing, to quick to tuck and run (i.e. read #1 then run), not enough zip on his intermediate to deep routes, and just plain bad accuracy.  All that plus at his recent pro day, where a guy is supposed to "shine" he played it safe with mostly short and intermediate distance throws (click here to read more detail on it from my Twitter buddy @evansilva at ProFootballTalk.com). 

Overall I really do not see Jake Locker being successful in the NFL under any system, especially if Steve Sarkisian (a noted QB guru) could not make much of him.  I understand the guy is a great leader and fairly smart, so maybe he will provide good locker room presence and be a great "coach" on the sidelines (i.e. the next Jason Garrett), but I just do not see him as a starting caliber QB in the NFL...ever.



2)  Marcell Dareus-DL-Alabama - I know I am going to get reamed for this one, but to me Dareus is just not a "star".  I watched most of his college games and while he racked up some good numbers, I did not see him making a bunch of "impact plays" (yes I know he had some, i.e. National Championship game against always over-rated Texas).  Honestly this past year he reminded me of DeMarcus Ware, Ware led the league in sacks, but none of them ever seemed to be game changers, they all seemed to be in garbage time or at least "non-critical" moments in the game.  I believe that Marcell will have a solid, but unspectacular, NFL career, he will probably be in the league for 10-15 years and be a contributor, just never "the guy".  In fact he could be one of the better 3-4 ends (which is where I think he will eventually end up) in the league, which is like saying that you are the best long snapper, important but nobody notices.

Whenever I say that he didn't make "impact plays" I am always told that it was because "he played end in a 3-4, and in the NFL he will play 3-4 tackle".  Hmmmm....Let me see, Alabama runs an NFL style 3-4, and Nick Saban is a great defensive coach, don't you think that if Dareus was an impact player he would have had him at the position where he would make the most impact (tackle) and not at DE where he just takes on blockers to free up linebackers and plays the run?  Guys, this isn't like a college 4-3 DE being converted to 3-4 OLB.  The system will probably be nearly identical for him from college to the pros, and if he wasn't able to play the "impact" position in college, against inferior opponents, what makes you think he will be that guy in the NFL against far superior opponents? 

All this leads me to believe that Saban's coaching and solid 3-4 ends are hard to find.  He will never make the impact that a Top 5 pick should (and yes I know he will be a Top 5 pick, probably 1 or 2) and never be worth the huge money he will be paid and that is why I think he will be a bust.



3)  Blaine Gabbert-QB-Missouri - The guy wasn't that productive in college running a dink-and-dunk spread offense, does not see the field that well (never had to go further than his 1st or 2nd read), and before his senior season I had read where he was a late round QB at best, and I saw NOTHING in his senior season that would catapult him all the way to the #1 spot! The guy has no vision, he never looks more than 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, and has very little pocket presence. Don't say you didn't hear it here first that Gabbert has "BUST" written all over him! In fact, I think people just became enamored with his size and arm strength and/or they needed something to to talk/write about, like a kid who gets a crappy toy for his Birthday but because its new its the best one....

4)  Martez Wilson-LB-Illinois -In watching him play....he just never did it for me.  Wilson, with his physical gifts and in such a weak conference (Big Ten) should have been a superstar right off the bat, and he barely registered on the Big Ten Richter Scale (and in that conference it is hard not to register).  The guy has great athleticism and at the very least should be an exceptional pass coverage linebacker, he has the physical tools to play any LB position and could become an above average rush LB in a 3-4 defense....With all that said I think he will hold himself back more than anything else, while I do not think he is a bad guy, he gets himself in bad situations and that could derail his NFL career along with the rumors I have read about him taking plays off.....Two very bad traits that in combination could end his career before it starts.

5)  Jonathan Baldwin-WR-Pitt - Where to start with this guy....Seems to have it all, height, size, top end speed, catches everything, great body control, etc.  So with all the skills necessary to be an elite NFL WR, why do I have him on my "All-Bust" List?  Because his attitude and mouth remind me of Antonio Bryant.  This assessment comes from him doing everything from criticizing his coaching staff and QB after he had a sub par year, arrested for supposedly groping a girl on a bus, and just has a reputation as a diva.  All of this leads me to think that he will never fully utilize all the God-given talent that he has been blessed with.  Due to his size and athleticism he is certain to get drafted in the 2nd round at the latest, but without a good support system look for him to talk/act his way out of the league.

6) Da'Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson -  Bowers is not on this list due to his knee injury (though that does worry me a tiny bit), and he is not on this list due to his less than stellar Pro Day.  Bowers is on this list because he is one of those "1 year wonders" that worry me so much, and that is why his lack of production over the first 2 years of his college career throws huge red flags.  I mean the guy played the same position in the same system for 3 years totaling 1, 3, & 16 sacks respectively.  Why and how did he break-out like that all of a sudden?  There are a few reasons that come to mind, either he was lazy and unmotivated for the first two years, he just got lucky his final year (I did not get to watch many Clemson games I must admit...of course when I did Bowers did not stand out initially), or he could not live up to the "expectations".  Now hear me out on this last one, my thinking goes, he was a unanimous top prospect coming out of high school, told he was the best, unblockable, etc. and he believed it and severely underachieved his first two years in college and once he start thinking "Damn, I might not get paid" he turned it on.....

7) Justin Houston-LB-Georgia - I watch a lot of SEC games and I watched a lot of Georgia games this year and Just Houston just never stood out to me.  In fact I was amazed when I started seeing his name pop as a possible 1st round draft choice.  Never seemed to have the skills to play OLB, seemed a step to slow doing anything besides coming straight off the edge, and I never saw anything that even remotely translated to dropping back in coverage.

8) Casey Matthews-LB-Oregon - Besides the National Championship game I never noticed him.  Really I think he is getting a high grade based upon his lineage, and that does not fly with me.  He seems to small to be an every down backer and is best suited as a nickle linebacker in the mold of Bobby Carpenter (who was excellent in coverage). In my opinion he is a special teams player due to his hustle, and maybe in 3 years he could develop into a rotational spot in a linebacking corp.

While you are here make sure you check out some other my other popular articles like:

-Best WR in the 2011 Draft

-Why Ryan Mallett is the #1 QB in the Draft

-Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans

-The "X" Factor in the 2011 Draft:  D.J. Williams

-My two articles on how they can improve the NFL here and here

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Why Ryan Mallett is my hands down #1 QB in the 2011 Draft

I have openly said before that I think the hands down, no questions asked #1 overall QB in this upcoming draft is Ryan Mallett, and I am not saying this as a Razorback "homer", in fact I am taking my "hog glasses" off to write this piece.  I will go ahead and openly admit that as an Arkansas Alumnus and die hard Razorback fan, that I do have a bias toward Razorback players, but right now I am writing a completely unbiased piece about the advantages that Ryan Mallett has going into the draft because of Bobby Petrino's offense. 
Why do I believe Ryan Mallett is the best QB in the draft?  Well he came out of Bobby Petrino's pro-style offense at Arkansas.  Yes, it is an "open style" pro offense, but a pro offense none the less.  For Mallett it gave him experience calling plays in the huddle and then giving him the freedom to change them at the line of scrimmage, just like an NFL offense.  He would be given a play to call in the huddle, and at the same time he would be given another play or two that he could audible to at the line of scrimmage depending on what the defense showed him.  Did he make some bad audibles, especially in some big games in college? Yes.  But it also gave him the experience and the tools to do it.  Now compare this to a QB like Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton, these guys were essentially given a formation and half a play call to make in the huddle.  When they reached the line of scrimmage, and saw how the defense was set, the players would all turn their heads and look to the sidelines where there would be 5-10 coaches or backup players making a myriad of hand signals, gestures, or holding up signs that would tell each player what to do, including the QB, so at least Mallett has already had plenty of "on the job training".  So essentially the coaches are reading the defense and telling the individual players what they should do.  So how does that translate to the NFL?  It doesn't.  Does that mean that in 3-5 years Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert won't be a better QB than Ryan Mallett?  No it doesn't, it just means that they have a much steeper learning curve, and maybe in 2 years the team that drafts them finds out that they just do not have the ability to read a defense at all, ever.  Then the team is set back a few years and has to start all over at the most important position on the field.

There are some questions out there about the character of Mallett, and I have heard some of them myself, but most of them come from him being labeled as "cocky" which is not necessarily a bad trait for an NFL QB.  Other concerns are that of past drug use, while I did hear of some "marijuana use" in college by him, the majority of players in the NFL either did use or still use to some extent, it does not mean that it is a problem (heck a lot of non-NFL people use it on a regular basis and most tried it in college).  At the most I believe he just needs a solid support system at the next level (which all teams should be providing to their rookies anyways, except the Bengals of course).  I think the background of his parents, both are teachers and his dad is a football coach, should be viewed as a positive by most NFL clubs.  I do not think his leadership can be challenged, not only did he turn himself into a leader at Arkansas by his final year, I read numerous reports of him at the combine being the leader of his QB group and also of other players congregating around him because of his leadership qualities, and these are future NFL players so he should have no problem commanding an NFL locker room or huddle. 

I did not touch on his physical abilities much in this piece because I think by now everybody knows there is not much to talk about there.  He has the height to see over even the tallest offensive linemen and clearly see the field and plays develop.  His arm strength is unparalleled and once he in the NFL will be regularly talked about as one of, if not the, strongest arm in the league.  He can make all the throws with ease, and his accuracy is only questioned when he has to throw on the move (even then there is not much bad you can say), and with some work it is an easily fixable problem at the next level.  While he may have been ridiculed as of late due to a slow even for O-line standards 40 yard dash, he moves around the pocket very well and has solid, though not spectacular footwork.  He is not a QB that will make plays with his feet, his arm strength, mechanics, and even footwork makes up for his lack of athletic ability.

Of course, even though Mallett came from a pro system and appears to be a solid leader it does not guarantee success at the pro level,  but in my opinion it gives him a distinct advantage over other college QB's, combine that with his throwing ability and other physical tools, and it looks to me like you have a pretty sure bet of a player that will be effective in the NFL.