Quick Hits on Top 10 Picks

By:  Bobby Shores

Wow! What a first round! While most of the picks in the top 10 were not much of a surprise, but this was probably the most exciting first round I have ever witnessed. There were an unprecedented number of trades, with only the Colts not moving in the Top 10, while picks were coming in at a rapid fire pace. I loved not waiting the full 10 minutes for each pick, and I must admit I was getting quite frustrated with the “worst commissioner in all of sports”, Roger Goodell, as I was quickly spoiled and wanted the picks to be made much faster, it seemed he was the bottleneck. I loved the fans continually booing Goodell, it shows that we are not happy with his approach to fundamentally changing the game of football (Editor’s Note:  I will take repeated blows to the head for millions of dollars, FYI), while also abusing his power with his constant fines and suspensions of players.

With no further ado, here are my first impressions of the first 10 picks. Editor’s Note: I am typing this on a plane with broken WiFi (Thanks American Airlines), so these are not in the correct order and I may get a name misspelled or a fact just slightly off (I guess if it’s off, then it’s not a fact), but my opinion is the important part, and you will understand the gist of what I am trying to say.

Colts & Redskins – We have known for months that Luck and RG3 were the picks, they have been analyzed and discussed to death, I have nothing new to add or anything to just make up so that I can be different and pretend to have a new thought like the no less than 500 NFL talking heads at ESPN….

Browns – Trent Richardson(RB) – I did not think they needed to move up one spot because I do not believe there was any team trying to trade up for Running Back Trent Richardson. Yes, he was far and above the best prospect at his position, but this is a passing league, and in 6 months we will be talking about some random late round pick that is leading all rookie running backs in yards and touchdowns. But with 13 picks in this draft, there is no way they could use them all, if they did there is little to no chance that they would all make the team. Remember the Cowboys 2009 “Special Teams” draft, they had 12 picks, like 6 of them were cut before the season ended and there were no real contributors taken.

Vikings – Matt Kalil(OT) – I give them credit, they were aggressive in moving back and getting what they could while still landing the guy they would have most likely taken at number three. I think they will be very pleased with Matt Kalil as they now have their franchise left tackle to protect their franchise quarterback which will give him more time to throw which will take pressure off of their franchise running back. Luckily for them wide receivers like Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle are still there and if they can grab one of them at the top of the 2^nd round I believe they can make a dramatic jump this year.

 

Jaguars – Justin Blackmon(WR) – In my opinion, Blackmon wasn’t even the best receiver in this draft, but I understand what they were trying to do. Their problem now is that they have nobody to get the ball to him, Gabbert is a complete and total bust and hopefully they will realize that sooner rather than later, otherwise Blackmon’s development could be greatly stunted.

Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill(QB) – They haven’t had a franchise quarterback since Dan Marino left, they have wasted probably seven 2^nd round picks trying to find one, I understand what they were doing and I can’t really argue with it as I am a Tannehill fan. Joe Philbin is known for developing quarterbacks just like Tannehill, and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman is already very familiar with him from their time together at A&M, if he can be successful anywhere it will be in Miami. Now the Dolphins just have to get some receivers for him to throw to.

Cowboys - Morris Claiborne(CB) – Read my article here on my Morris Claiborne thoughts. The only thing I will add is that I am a big fan of 2^nd round picks and I don’t like giving them up. I also feel that cornerback is the deepest position in the draft and that there are multiple great ones that are still on the board and will be when they pick in the 2^nd & 3^rd round (Janoris Jenkins, Brandon Boykin, Casey Heyward, etc). The only thing that would have made me happier was taking Mississippi State Defensive Lineman Fletcher Cox, I feel that he is this year’s JJ Watt, a 5-technique DE that is dynamic enough to rush the passer.

Buccaneers – Mark Barron(S) – They were desperate for Safety help and they were desperate to stop the run, so having the best Safety in the draft, who specializes in stopping the run is not a horrible choice. I am probably the last holdout who still does not see Mark Barron as anything other than average in pass coverage, and with my thoughts of Safety being a dying breed, picking him before the 20’s was a reach. I think he will have a short career and in 5 years they will wish they had gone a different direction. I think he will help against the run heavy teams like Panthers and Falcons in his division, but Drew Brees will exploit him.

Bills – Stephon Gilmore(CB) – The Bills have completely revamped their defense in basically one calendar year, they have a solid front seven with Mario Willams, Mark Anderson, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Kelvin Sheppard and adding Gilmore to McKelvin and George Wilson will definitely give them a better chance to slow down the Patriots aerial attack and his size should help him against the run heavy teams like the Jets and Dolphins. I am not a big fan of Gilmore’s cover skills, and he is one of those guys who shot up draft boards AFTER the college season, which means that people became enamored with his measurables. His film was average in my opinion and the Bills should have gone either offensive line (DeCastro or Martin) or gone with the best wide receiver in the draft in Michael Floyd. Both options would have upgrade their offense and helped out quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, which should have been their top priority.

Panthers – Luke Kuechly(ILB) – Another team that could have gone in numerous directions, they might wish they had taken Floyd to give Cam Newton a weapon to grow with as Steve Smith is near the end of his career. The Panthers are weak in the middle of their defense, starting with Defensive Tackle and continuing on through MLB and Safety. Obviously there was no safety in this draft worthy of a Top 10 pick (even Barron) and I can’t argue with taking Kuechly over Cox. Kuechly is going to be a tremendous  linebacker in this league, I think we will look at him as a slightly weaker hitter but far superior in coverage in 10 years. He can play in any scheme, and would be one of the top MLB’s in any one (I think he would be excellent playing Urlacher’s position in a Cover-2 scheme). The Panthers have found the leader of their defense for years to come, he will work hard, make everybody else work harder, call the plays and get the defense lined up; all while making plays and earning All-Pro nods.

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Morris Claiborne & The Effect on Mike Jenkins

By:  Bobby Shores

**Editor's Note:  Sorry this is not all linked up like usual, I was writing on a plane and would have been posted early this morning but the stupid WiFi on American Airlines didn't work, but better late than never!!**

When I saw the Cowboys were trading up to the number 6 overall pick my first thought was confusion, followed immediately by extreme joy as I thought to myself that Jerry Jones had finally listened to me and was selecting Mississippi State DT/DE Fletcher Cox. When I started hearing that they were instead choosing LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne I was filled with more thoughts of confusion……

Let me start by saying I am very high on Claiborne, I feel he is the best all around defensive back in this draft and probably the best DB that the Cowboys could have taken. His physical style is ideal for Rob Ryan’s press man scheme and he is versatile enough to play outside corner or slide in and play the slot. He also has the ability to return punts, which the Cowboys are in desperate need of, after averaging over 26 yards per return at LSU. This is not a bad pick for America’s Team.

Now I know what most of you are saying, “What a flip-flopper, this guy has been banging the Janoris Jenkins drum for months!”. Yes, you are right, I do believe that Janoris is by far the best pure cover guy in this draft, and I had designs of taking him in the 2^nd (possibly the 3^rd) round where the value would be unbeatable. I think Claiborne has much more versatility than Janoris and never even thought there was a remote chance of landing him, so I never even thought of what would happen if we picked him until late last night.

So what does this mean for the Cowboys defense/secondary now? That is a good question and one that I am currently working on still…..

My initial thought was “Well, you can never have to many cornerbacks”, and then I remembered that the Eagles had three excellent cornerbacks last year and they couldn’t stop Blaine Gabbert from looking like a an actual NFL quarterback if they tried. Still, with the injury history of Mike Jenkins, having four solid cornerbacks is a good problem to have, as a Cowboys fan I know the problems of not having any good ones…..

As I am a fan of putting your best eleven players on the field at all times, and obviously our top four cornerbacks will be part of the “best 11” defensive players no matter what combination you try and use, how do we get them all on the field at once, especially if the offense isn’t running a 4-receiver set? NFL teams use 3-receiver sets for the majority of plays, and many times more, but they don’t run 4-receiver or more sets the majority of the time. So I will be researching this dilemma today, right now I am leaning toward my previous article of eliminating or minimizing the Safety’s on the field, running with either a “single high” or possibly no “true” safety. Ryan has the creativity and now has the personnel to make this a truly unique, one of a kind defense.

My second thought when I heard that the Cowboys were taking Claiborne, was who does this make expendable? Obviously Claiborne and the team’s new $50 million defensive back Brandon Carr are going to be on the field, that leaves Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins.

Scandrick just signed a 5-year $27 million contract this last season, so I don’t expect them to even try and move him, whether by trade or outright release. Scandrick has been our best defensive back against the run, and plays aggressively, not afraid to take a chance and I think that is the kind of player Ryan likes. Yes, he did struggle quite a bit last year, but I believe that was largely due to the ineffectiveness of the rest of the defense, and constantly shuffling him from position-to-position to cover up for other players inefficiencies and injuries. Scandrick is not going anywhere, he is a young cornerback that is still growing and we have him at a good rate for the next few years.

That leaves Mike Jenkins, the former 2008 first round pick who became a full time starter in 2009. While he has basically been the best cover corner that the Cowboys have had for the last few years, the guy is literally always injured. I can’t remember a game he played where he did not have an ankle, knee, shoulder, hamstring, etc injury slowing him down. Also the fact that he is in the final year of his deal and is wanting Carr type money I think it’t time to move him…..and I mean now!!

Mike is recovering from shoulder surgery and will miss the beginning of off-season workouts, but it should not limit him during the season. Since he is owed a VERY reasonable salary of about $1.5 million this year, any team with a corner need who missed on their first round prospects should be calling the Cowboys (I’m talking to you Vikings, Patriots, Lions). I think that Mike is worth a 2^nd round pick, especially if more than one team is fighting for him, realistically though we will probably get a 3^rd and maybe a 6^th.

Regardless, if we want to trade him (and I said last night I thought he would be on the trade block after the Claiborne pick) we need to move him early in the 2^nd round so that we can package picks and move back into the 2^nd if there is a player we covet (Ronell Lewis)

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The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

Just so everybody knows, I am trying something new with this article, it was written by Judson Coleman who I met on Twitter (@jacalope37) and expressed interest in someday doing what I do here, which is writing football articles.  He has written a very well thought out and interesting article into what he thinks the Vikings are thinking (hmmm don't know if the double "think" works there but I will find out) with draft day 2011 fast approaching.  And if anyone else is looking to do the same thing then you know how to contact me, I am very open to anyone contributing to this website in almost any fashion.  So let's get to the point, completely unedited by me, here is Judson's article....

The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

by Judson Coleman

With the NFL draft less than two weeks away, I don't remember a time when the Vikings draft plans were surrounded by more questions.  Obviously the labor dispute has a lot to do with this and has a particularly large impact on teams with holes at quarterback like the Vikings.  With no opportunity to tap in to the free agent market, quarterback needy teams are left with the draft as their only current option to fill that need.  This is also a big part of why a draft deep at the position could challenge the 1983 draft class' record of 6 quarterback selected in round one.  Further complicating things for the Vikings is the location of their picks in rounds one and two.  The consensus top two quarterbacks, Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be off the board before the Vikings 12th pick in round one and the only other player in the discussion at this point is Washington's Jake Locker who most feel would be a reach at this point.  Locker, whose stock seems to be on the rise again after a rocky senior season that saw his status as the number one quarterback prospect erased, is rumored to be a Vikings favorite who some within the organization feel resembles Brett Favre.  Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, TCU's Andy Dalton, FSU's Christain Ponder and Nevada's Colin Kapernick round out the rest of the second tier of quarterbacks.  Each of these signal callers, with the exception of Kaepernick, are expected to be off the board before the Vikings selection at 43 in round two.  So what are the Vikings to do?  Here's my attempt to answer that question through exploring their options as draft day approaches.

Coach Leslie Frazier has made it clear that he wants a quarterback of the future and his goal is to draft and develop that player.  If the Vikings are to accomplish this they will have to find a way to select one of the five players mentioned above and smart money says they don't feel comfortable waiting to see whats left at 43.  Naturally a trade seems to be in order, whether it be a move down in round one or a move up from the second.  The Vikings have the additional picks necessary to make a move even without the third round pick shipped to the Patriots in exchange for four weeks of Randy Moss.  While making a trade is easier said than done, I expect them to make a move for a number of reasons.  I don't think the team loves Locker enough to reach for him at 12 and bypass their focus on drafting the best player available.  The team has mentioned a number of times that they would like to recover a third round pick in this draft and a trade down from 12 could accomplish this.  While the team was rumored to be hot after Kaepernick at the Senior Bowl, there's been no recent buzz surrounding him and the team.  Perhaps more importantly, he's the rawest of this group of quarterbacks and I don't feel the team is willing to wait what most feel will be two years before he's ready to step in as a starter.  I think this effectively eliminates Kaepernick from consideration unless the Vikings are unable to make a trade and are left with either he or Iowa's Ricky Stanzi as a consolation prize.  This leaves Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder as their targets in this draft.  Based on mock drafts and recent buzz, Locker's draft range seems to be somewhere between Washington's pick at 10 and Seattle's at 25.  Of the other three, Mallett seems to have the highest draft ceiling at Miami's pick at 15, Dalton's seems to be to Seattle at 25 and Ponder's is likely at the top of round two.  Each of these three is expected to be off the board no later than Washington's round two selection at 41.  So, you can see the Vikings will have to find their way in to the mid to late first round in order to get the player they want unless they feel Locker is the best player at 12, which as mentioned above I don't think they do.  

We've effectively broken things down to four players and their draft ranges.  The next step, figuring out who best fits the Vikings offense, is tricky.  Why?  Well, we don't know much about the Vikings offense.  About all Coach Frazier and new Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave have shared is that the offense won't be bound by one system and will be built around the skill sets of the players.  While it hasn't been said, the expectation is that the offense will move away from the west coast version the previous regime ran to something closer to what Musgrave ran in Atlanta with Matt Ryan.  Ponder is said to be a perfect fit for the west coast offense and I expect that and his lack of arm strength puts him at the end of the Vikings wish list.  Dalton continues to rise up draft boards despite not wowing you with any part of his game other than simply winning and it's worth noting that the Vikings brought him to their recent top 30 prospect visit.  He doesn't possess the arm strength of Locker or Mallett, but he also has zero on or off field issues, making him the safest pick of the three.  I don't sense that this is enough to rank him ahead of Locker or Mallett and their considerably higher potential however, and feel the Vikings are eyeing one of these two as their quarterback of the future.  Locker's competitiveness, drive and work ethic put him at the top of the list in spite of his less than stellar completion percentage and overall performance.  Many of his issues can be attributed to only being a true quarterback for the last two years of his college career and more importantly being forced to carry a team that was seriously lacking in talent.  Mallett on the other hand had plenty of success on the field in college football's toughest conference, but his rumored character concerns off the field drop him slightly behind Locker.  He possesses without question the strongest arm in this draft class and if not for his limited athletic ability, he might be the top prospect from a pure quarterbacking standpoint.  Teams can survive poor character at other positions, but not at quarterback where you are often the face of the franchise and expected to be a leader on and off the filed.  Mallett's teammates and coaches at Arkansas gave him rave reviews which make these concerns seem to be more of a maturity thing that he can grow out of.  I'm sure the Vikings explored this thoroughly when they hosted Mallett at their top 30 visit.  This leaves us with a draft board of Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder, any of whom the Vikings will have to make a trade to get.

The Vikings have said they are eyeing defensive end, offensive tackle, quarterback, safety and possibly even wide receiver at 12.  Reading through the smoke screen that's so prevalent this time of year, you can break that down further to DE, QB or trade down.  From a value standpoint there is no safety worth taking that high, their interest in offensive tackles I believe is overblown and a story for another day, and taking a receiver would effectively guarantee Sidney Rice isn't coming back and I don't believe they want to burn that bridge.  I do believe that the Vikings are very interested in Robert Quinn and Da'Quan Bowers at 12, and if Quinn is available I think they take him without question.  It's more likely that Bowers will still be available after a recent questions about the health of his knee have driven his stock down.  I think the Vikings would be more than happy with him but, I see them exploring trade down options in this scenario, banking on a team jumping at the chance to move up for a top 5 talent.  If neither is there, they'll focus entirely on trading down with reaching for Locker as the backup plan.  If Quinn or Bowers is the pick at 12, I fully expect that the team will try to trade back in to round one with possible targets being New England at 17 and any number of teams at the back end of the round beginning with New Orleans at 24.  If unable to make a move, they take whats left over at 43, likely Kaepernick, or if they miss out on the quarterback run entirely look at tackle, safety or defensive tackle.  As you can see, things can go any number of directions, but I think you can bank on the Vikings doing everything in their power to come away with a quarterback before pick 43.  I could be right or I could be completely wrong, but that's the unpredictable nature the draft.  The only thing you can count on is that it starts on April 28th, and for this Viking's fan that can't come soon enough.