The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

Just so everybody knows, I am trying something new with this article, it was written by Judson Coleman who I met on Twitter (@jacalope37) and expressed interest in someday doing what I do here, which is writing football articles.  He has written a very well thought out and interesting article into what he thinks the Vikings are thinking (hmmm don't know if the double "think" works there but I will find out) with draft day 2011 fast approaching.  And if anyone else is looking to do the same thing then you know how to contact me, I am very open to anyone contributing to this website in almost any fashion.  So let's get to the point, completely unedited by me, here is Judson's article....

The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

by Judson Coleman

With the NFL draft less than two weeks away, I don't remember a time when the Vikings draft plans were surrounded by more questions.  Obviously the labor dispute has a lot to do with this and has a particularly large impact on teams with holes at quarterback like the Vikings.  With no opportunity to tap in to the free agent market, quarterback needy teams are left with the draft as their only current option to fill that need.  This is also a big part of why a draft deep at the position could challenge the 1983 draft class' record of 6 quarterback selected in round one.  Further complicating things for the Vikings is the location of their picks in rounds one and two.  The consensus top two quarterbacks, Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be off the board before the Vikings 12th pick in round one and the only other player in the discussion at this point is Washington's Jake Locker who most feel would be a reach at this point.  Locker, whose stock seems to be on the rise again after a rocky senior season that saw his status as the number one quarterback prospect erased, is rumored to be a Vikings favorite who some within the organization feel resembles Brett Favre.  Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, TCU's Andy Dalton, FSU's Christain Ponder and Nevada's Colin Kapernick round out the rest of the second tier of quarterbacks.  Each of these signal callers, with the exception of Kaepernick, are expected to be off the board before the Vikings selection at 43 in round two.  So what are the Vikings to do?  Here's my attempt to answer that question through exploring their options as draft day approaches.

Coach Leslie Frazier has made it clear that he wants a quarterback of the future and his goal is to draft and develop that player.  If the Vikings are to accomplish this they will have to find a way to select one of the five players mentioned above and smart money says they don't feel comfortable waiting to see whats left at 43.  Naturally a trade seems to be in order, whether it be a move down in round one or a move up from the second.  The Vikings have the additional picks necessary to make a move even without the third round pick shipped to the Patriots in exchange for four weeks of Randy Moss.  While making a trade is easier said than done, I expect them to make a move for a number of reasons.  I don't think the team loves Locker enough to reach for him at 12 and bypass their focus on drafting the best player available.  The team has mentioned a number of times that they would like to recover a third round pick in this draft and a trade down from 12 could accomplish this.  While the team was rumored to be hot after Kaepernick at the Senior Bowl, there's been no recent buzz surrounding him and the team.  Perhaps more importantly, he's the rawest of this group of quarterbacks and I don't feel the team is willing to wait what most feel will be two years before he's ready to step in as a starter.  I think this effectively eliminates Kaepernick from consideration unless the Vikings are unable to make a trade and are left with either he or Iowa's Ricky Stanzi as a consolation prize.  This leaves Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder as their targets in this draft.  Based on mock drafts and recent buzz, Locker's draft range seems to be somewhere between Washington's pick at 10 and Seattle's at 25.  Of the other three, Mallett seems to have the highest draft ceiling at Miami's pick at 15, Dalton's seems to be to Seattle at 25 and Ponder's is likely at the top of round two.  Each of these three is expected to be off the board no later than Washington's round two selection at 41.  So, you can see the Vikings will have to find their way in to the mid to late first round in order to get the player they want unless they feel Locker is the best player at 12, which as mentioned above I don't think they do.  

We've effectively broken things down to four players and their draft ranges.  The next step, figuring out who best fits the Vikings offense, is tricky.  Why?  Well, we don't know much about the Vikings offense.  About all Coach Frazier and new Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave have shared is that the offense won't be bound by one system and will be built around the skill sets of the players.  While it hasn't been said, the expectation is that the offense will move away from the west coast version the previous regime ran to something closer to what Musgrave ran in Atlanta with Matt Ryan.  Ponder is said to be a perfect fit for the west coast offense and I expect that and his lack of arm strength puts him at the end of the Vikings wish list.  Dalton continues to rise up draft boards despite not wowing you with any part of his game other than simply winning and it's worth noting that the Vikings brought him to their recent top 30 prospect visit.  He doesn't possess the arm strength of Locker or Mallett, but he also has zero on or off field issues, making him the safest pick of the three.  I don't sense that this is enough to rank him ahead of Locker or Mallett and their considerably higher potential however, and feel the Vikings are eyeing one of these two as their quarterback of the future.  Locker's competitiveness, drive and work ethic put him at the top of the list in spite of his less than stellar completion percentage and overall performance.  Many of his issues can be attributed to only being a true quarterback for the last two years of his college career and more importantly being forced to carry a team that was seriously lacking in talent.  Mallett on the other hand had plenty of success on the field in college football's toughest conference, but his rumored character concerns off the field drop him slightly behind Locker.  He possesses without question the strongest arm in this draft class and if not for his limited athletic ability, he might be the top prospect from a pure quarterbacking standpoint.  Teams can survive poor character at other positions, but not at quarterback where you are often the face of the franchise and expected to be a leader on and off the filed.  Mallett's teammates and coaches at Arkansas gave him rave reviews which make these concerns seem to be more of a maturity thing that he can grow out of.  I'm sure the Vikings explored this thoroughly when they hosted Mallett at their top 30 visit.  This leaves us with a draft board of Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder, any of whom the Vikings will have to make a trade to get.

The Vikings have said they are eyeing defensive end, offensive tackle, quarterback, safety and possibly even wide receiver at 12.  Reading through the smoke screen that's so prevalent this time of year, you can break that down further to DE, QB or trade down.  From a value standpoint there is no safety worth taking that high, their interest in offensive tackles I believe is overblown and a story for another day, and taking a receiver would effectively guarantee Sidney Rice isn't coming back and I don't believe they want to burn that bridge.  I do believe that the Vikings are very interested in Robert Quinn and Da'Quan Bowers at 12, and if Quinn is available I think they take him without question.  It's more likely that Bowers will still be available after a recent questions about the health of his knee have driven his stock down.  I think the Vikings would be more than happy with him but, I see them exploring trade down options in this scenario, banking on a team jumping at the chance to move up for a top 5 talent.  If neither is there, they'll focus entirely on trading down with reaching for Locker as the backup plan.  If Quinn or Bowers is the pick at 12, I fully expect that the team will try to trade back in to round one with possible targets being New England at 17 and any number of teams at the back end of the round beginning with New Orleans at 24.  If unable to make a move, they take whats left over at 43, likely Kaepernick, or if they miss out on the quarterback run entirely look at tackle, safety or defensive tackle.  As you can see, things can go any number of directions, but I think you can bank on the Vikings doing everything in their power to come away with a quarterback before pick 43.  I could be right or I could be completely wrong, but that's the unpredictable nature the draft.  The only thing you can count on is that it starts on April 28th, and for this Viking's fan that can't come soon enough.

Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans

My top 5 QB's in the 2011 draft goes something like this:

1)  Ryan Mallett (And not because I am a Razorback homer, I am taking the "hog glasses" off)
2a)  Andy Dalton (For reasons to be explained further down)
2b) Christian Ponder (Another Article to explain)
3)  Colin Kaepnerick (As a project QB)
4)  All other project QB's (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, etc)

I have already explained what I see in Ryan Mallett and why I believe he is not only the most pro ready QB in the draft, but the best QB in the draft period.  I feel there is a tie at the next level of QB's, and none of them are named Cam Newton, Jake Locker, or Blaine Gabbert.  The reason I have Andy Dalton up there is not because he put up spectacular (but artificially inflated) numbers in college at TCU running out of a spread offense like some other QB's in the draft did, even though he did put up good numbers out of TCU's spread.  It is because in Dalton I see a smart, game managing QB.  Will he put up the huge numbers game in and game out that superstars such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees put up?  No, but he could develop into that in 3-5 years possibly, but I do not think he should get drafted by a team where he will be expected to carry the load.  I think he needs to get drafted by a team with a Pittsburgh type philosophy (*cough* *cough* Titans in 2nd round), a team that relies on a strong defense and running game, a team that only needs the quarterback to be an extension of the coach on the field, manage the game, make smart plays, put the ball in the hands of the playmakers on offense.  In Pittsburgh Ben Roethlisberger won his first Super Bowl with a great defense and great run game that was able to overcome all his shortcomings as a quarterback (he has come a long ways since then).  They won that Super Bowl in spite of "Big Ben" not because of him.  Ben was brought along slowly in an a stable organization (which the Titans have been for the most part) where he learned to read defenses, make simple audibles, and adapt to the speed of the pro game where if he made a mistake his running game and defense were there to bail him out.  This is how I see Andy Dalton's career playing out.  I am not saying that he will be the next Ben Roethlisberger, because he won't be, they are two completely different QB's in size, arm strength, and ability.  Some will question Dalton because of his size (6'2) and along with that his 3/4's release and say that he will struggle behind NFL O-lines, and I say look at Romo or Brees, plus he is extremely good rolling out of the pocket and throwing on the run. Others say he is not accurate enough, just because he was able to throw into big windows does not mean he is not accurate.  I just think that Dalton needs to be put in the right situation which is Tennessee, here is what the Titans can offer....

Right now Tennessee is only a few pieces away from being playoff contenders, and maybe one more year before they could be legitimate title contenders.  They are almost certain to use their 1st round pick (#8 overall) on a playmaking defensive line player that will be able to step in and make an immediate difference (i.e. Nick Fairley, or 1 of the many other DE's/DT's).  Depending on the development of their other players on defense, I expect the majority of this draft to be used on the defensive side of the ball (save a some O-line depth and Dalton of course).  They need to get bigger and more durable on the D-line, try to get a playmaking LB and a replacement for Chris Hope at safety since he is unlikely to be back with the team. 

Most people look at the Titans offense and see a myriad of problems, I only see one, lack of a QB.  I think their offense is on the verge, but with all the problems on the field and in the locker room cause by Vince Young the rest of the offense was stuck in neutral.  I truly believe that VY, his lack of maturity, football smarts, well smarts in general is what doomed this team (and ultimately Jeff Fisher) from the get go.  I believe they have all the other weapons needed to make this a potential Top 10 offense, and most of all be balanced.  I think Kerry Collins should be brought back to help Andy Dalton (this is all hypothetical, and based on them doing what they should and listening to me and drafting Dalton at the top of the 2nd round), or a veteran leader that will help him develop.  We know they have a top 5 RB in Chris Johnson, who is both a threat running the ball as well as taking short passes out of the backfield.  They have a reliable and underrated backup in Javon Ringer, who will not wow you with any 1 skill, but is well suited to being a productive back.

They have the "playmaker" on the outside at WR in former 1st round draft pick Kenny Britt, who has shown flashes when he is given the opportunity, and as long as he will get his focus on the field and stay out of bad situations (and away from controversial people) off of it.  I believe last years 2nd round pick, Damian Williams, will benefit the most from having a smart accurate QB like Dalton.  Williams reminds me of a possession receiver, he will fight for the ball, excels in traffic, but not a flashy WR.  He will go across the middle and catch almost anything thrown at him.  They also have some deep threats at WR that can stretch the field and open up underneath routes.  At the Tight End position I believe this will be the year that Jared Cook breaks out, he has already been working out and trying to improve his blocking skills.  While blocking will need to be a piece of his game, I see him as the ultimate safety valve for a young QB such as Dalton.  Cook is an athletic freak who is a mismatch for anybody that attempts to cover him (linebacker, nickle back, safety, DE dropping into the flats), and he will be a threat to make a huge gain and even score every time he touches the ball.  So we know that Dalton will have plenty of weapons to utilize, and with his smarts he will utilize them well.

The final piece of the puzzle for the Titans is the offensive line.  The team has some issues at the interior line positions (guards & center specifically LG) and since their head coach is the former O-Line coach and since they brought in Bruce Matthews to be the new O-line coach, do not expect them to spend high draft picks or big money in free agency (if there is FA) in upgrading the line.  I still do not understand the teams reluctance in bringing back Kevin Mawae who still has/had a few good years left in him at center.  Not only was he the best candidate for center he also would have ensured that everybody else knew what to do.  Center is currently a question mark with Eugene Amano recovering from a season ending neck injury that required surgery, and I believe it would be best to move him back to left guard where him and Michael Roos(Left Tackle) were a formidable tandem (unlikely to happen).  Left Guard needs to be upgraded from incumbent Leroy Harris who I believe is better suited as a quality backup that can fill many positions on the line, in fact I always thought that as a smarter O-lineman and with his great use of angles and leverage that he would be better suited for center, but for some reason that a coach and not myself would know he is not.

With what appears to be a solid team already built, and mainly lacking a QB, I still feel that Andy Dalton would be a great fit here, now maybe someone will read this and rip my reasoning apart, or decide that "damn he is good" and want me working for their organization. 

Other teams that might be a good fit for Dalton: 
-Carolina Panthers - Strong run game, but to many holes for 1 guy to fill
-Miami Dolphins - Always a good running team even though both primary backs are scheduled for free agency, and they have a solid defense in place, but they are probably tired of throwing 2nd round picks at QB's and I do not blame them (Pat White, Chad Henne, John Beck all draft picks, and they traded 2nd round picks for Daunte Culpepper, Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley if my memory serves me correct)
-Minnesota Vikings - Probably best RB duo in the NFL with A. Peterson and Toby Gerhart, and a defense that is looking to get younger but still solid, they may be looking for an instant upgrade through trade.