The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

Just so everybody knows, I am trying something new with this article, it was written by Judson Coleman who I met on Twitter (@jacalope37) and expressed interest in someday doing what I do here, which is writing football articles.  He has written a very well thought out and interesting article into what he thinks the Vikings are thinking (hmmm don't know if the double "think" works there but I will find out) with draft day 2011 fast approaching.  And if anyone else is looking to do the same thing then you know how to contact me, I am very open to anyone contributing to this website in almost any fashion.  So let's get to the point, completely unedited by me, here is Judson's article....

The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

by Judson Coleman

With the NFL draft less than two weeks away, I don't remember a time when the Vikings draft plans were surrounded by more questions.  Obviously the labor dispute has a lot to do with this and has a particularly large impact on teams with holes at quarterback like the Vikings.  With no opportunity to tap in to the free agent market, quarterback needy teams are left with the draft as their only current option to fill that need.  This is also a big part of why a draft deep at the position could challenge the 1983 draft class' record of 6 quarterback selected in round one.  Further complicating things for the Vikings is the location of their picks in rounds one and two.  The consensus top two quarterbacks, Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be off the board before the Vikings 12th pick in round one and the only other player in the discussion at this point is Washington's Jake Locker who most feel would be a reach at this point.  Locker, whose stock seems to be on the rise again after a rocky senior season that saw his status as the number one quarterback prospect erased, is rumored to be a Vikings favorite who some within the organization feel resembles Brett Favre.  Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, TCU's Andy Dalton, FSU's Christain Ponder and Nevada's Colin Kapernick round out the rest of the second tier of quarterbacks.  Each of these signal callers, with the exception of Kaepernick, are expected to be off the board before the Vikings selection at 43 in round two.  So what are the Vikings to do?  Here's my attempt to answer that question through exploring their options as draft day approaches.

Coach Leslie Frazier has made it clear that he wants a quarterback of the future and his goal is to draft and develop that player.  If the Vikings are to accomplish this they will have to find a way to select one of the five players mentioned above and smart money says they don't feel comfortable waiting to see whats left at 43.  Naturally a trade seems to be in order, whether it be a move down in round one or a move up from the second.  The Vikings have the additional picks necessary to make a move even without the third round pick shipped to the Patriots in exchange for four weeks of Randy Moss.  While making a trade is easier said than done, I expect them to make a move for a number of reasons.  I don't think the team loves Locker enough to reach for him at 12 and bypass their focus on drafting the best player available.  The team has mentioned a number of times that they would like to recover a third round pick in this draft and a trade down from 12 could accomplish this.  While the team was rumored to be hot after Kaepernick at the Senior Bowl, there's been no recent buzz surrounding him and the team.  Perhaps more importantly, he's the rawest of this group of quarterbacks and I don't feel the team is willing to wait what most feel will be two years before he's ready to step in as a starter.  I think this effectively eliminates Kaepernick from consideration unless the Vikings are unable to make a trade and are left with either he or Iowa's Ricky Stanzi as a consolation prize.  This leaves Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder as their targets in this draft.  Based on mock drafts and recent buzz, Locker's draft range seems to be somewhere between Washington's pick at 10 and Seattle's at 25.  Of the other three, Mallett seems to have the highest draft ceiling at Miami's pick at 15, Dalton's seems to be to Seattle at 25 and Ponder's is likely at the top of round two.  Each of these three is expected to be off the board no later than Washington's round two selection at 41.  So, you can see the Vikings will have to find their way in to the mid to late first round in order to get the player they want unless they feel Locker is the best player at 12, which as mentioned above I don't think they do.  

We've effectively broken things down to four players and their draft ranges.  The next step, figuring out who best fits the Vikings offense, is tricky.  Why?  Well, we don't know much about the Vikings offense.  About all Coach Frazier and new Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave have shared is that the offense won't be bound by one system and will be built around the skill sets of the players.  While it hasn't been said, the expectation is that the offense will move away from the west coast version the previous regime ran to something closer to what Musgrave ran in Atlanta with Matt Ryan.  Ponder is said to be a perfect fit for the west coast offense and I expect that and his lack of arm strength puts him at the end of the Vikings wish list.  Dalton continues to rise up draft boards despite not wowing you with any part of his game other than simply winning and it's worth noting that the Vikings brought him to their recent top 30 prospect visit.  He doesn't possess the arm strength of Locker or Mallett, but he also has zero on or off field issues, making him the safest pick of the three.  I don't sense that this is enough to rank him ahead of Locker or Mallett and their considerably higher potential however, and feel the Vikings are eyeing one of these two as their quarterback of the future.  Locker's competitiveness, drive and work ethic put him at the top of the list in spite of his less than stellar completion percentage and overall performance.  Many of his issues can be attributed to only being a true quarterback for the last two years of his college career and more importantly being forced to carry a team that was seriously lacking in talent.  Mallett on the other hand had plenty of success on the field in college football's toughest conference, but his rumored character concerns off the field drop him slightly behind Locker.  He possesses without question the strongest arm in this draft class and if not for his limited athletic ability, he might be the top prospect from a pure quarterbacking standpoint.  Teams can survive poor character at other positions, but not at quarterback where you are often the face of the franchise and expected to be a leader on and off the filed.  Mallett's teammates and coaches at Arkansas gave him rave reviews which make these concerns seem to be more of a maturity thing that he can grow out of.  I'm sure the Vikings explored this thoroughly when they hosted Mallett at their top 30 visit.  This leaves us with a draft board of Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder, any of whom the Vikings will have to make a trade to get.

The Vikings have said they are eyeing defensive end, offensive tackle, quarterback, safety and possibly even wide receiver at 12.  Reading through the smoke screen that's so prevalent this time of year, you can break that down further to DE, QB or trade down.  From a value standpoint there is no safety worth taking that high, their interest in offensive tackles I believe is overblown and a story for another day, and taking a receiver would effectively guarantee Sidney Rice isn't coming back and I don't believe they want to burn that bridge.  I do believe that the Vikings are very interested in Robert Quinn and Da'Quan Bowers at 12, and if Quinn is available I think they take him without question.  It's more likely that Bowers will still be available after a recent questions about the health of his knee have driven his stock down.  I think the Vikings would be more than happy with him but, I see them exploring trade down options in this scenario, banking on a team jumping at the chance to move up for a top 5 talent.  If neither is there, they'll focus entirely on trading down with reaching for Locker as the backup plan.  If Quinn or Bowers is the pick at 12, I fully expect that the team will try to trade back in to round one with possible targets being New England at 17 and any number of teams at the back end of the round beginning with New Orleans at 24.  If unable to make a move, they take whats left over at 43, likely Kaepernick, or if they miss out on the quarterback run entirely look at tackle, safety or defensive tackle.  As you can see, things can go any number of directions, but I think you can bank on the Vikings doing everything in their power to come away with a quarterback before pick 43.  I could be right or I could be completely wrong, but that's the unpredictable nature the draft.  The only thing you can count on is that it starts on April 28th, and for this Viking's fan that can't come soon enough.