The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

Just so everybody knows, I am trying something new with this article, it was written by Judson Coleman who I met on Twitter (@jacalope37) and expressed interest in someday doing what I do here, which is writing football articles.  He has written a very well thought out and interesting article into what he thinks the Vikings are thinking (hmmm don't know if the double "think" works there but I will find out) with draft day 2011 fast approaching.  And if anyone else is looking to do the same thing then you know how to contact me, I am very open to anyone contributing to this website in almost any fashion.  So let's get to the point, completely unedited by me, here is Judson's article....

The Vikings Quarterback Conundrum

by Judson Coleman

With the NFL draft less than two weeks away, I don't remember a time when the Vikings draft plans were surrounded by more questions.  Obviously the labor dispute has a lot to do with this and has a particularly large impact on teams with holes at quarterback like the Vikings.  With no opportunity to tap in to the free agent market, quarterback needy teams are left with the draft as their only current option to fill that need.  This is also a big part of why a draft deep at the position could challenge the 1983 draft class' record of 6 quarterback selected in round one.  Further complicating things for the Vikings is the location of their picks in rounds one and two.  The consensus top two quarterbacks, Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will be off the board before the Vikings 12th pick in round one and the only other player in the discussion at this point is Washington's Jake Locker who most feel would be a reach at this point.  Locker, whose stock seems to be on the rise again after a rocky senior season that saw his status as the number one quarterback prospect erased, is rumored to be a Vikings favorite who some within the organization feel resembles Brett Favre.  Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, TCU's Andy Dalton, FSU's Christain Ponder and Nevada's Colin Kapernick round out the rest of the second tier of quarterbacks.  Each of these signal callers, with the exception of Kaepernick, are expected to be off the board before the Vikings selection at 43 in round two.  So what are the Vikings to do?  Here's my attempt to answer that question through exploring their options as draft day approaches.

Coach Leslie Frazier has made it clear that he wants a quarterback of the future and his goal is to draft and develop that player.  If the Vikings are to accomplish this they will have to find a way to select one of the five players mentioned above and smart money says they don't feel comfortable waiting to see whats left at 43.  Naturally a trade seems to be in order, whether it be a move down in round one or a move up from the second.  The Vikings have the additional picks necessary to make a move even without the third round pick shipped to the Patriots in exchange for four weeks of Randy Moss.  While making a trade is easier said than done, I expect them to make a move for a number of reasons.  I don't think the team loves Locker enough to reach for him at 12 and bypass their focus on drafting the best player available.  The team has mentioned a number of times that they would like to recover a third round pick in this draft and a trade down from 12 could accomplish this.  While the team was rumored to be hot after Kaepernick at the Senior Bowl, there's been no recent buzz surrounding him and the team.  Perhaps more importantly, he's the rawest of this group of quarterbacks and I don't feel the team is willing to wait what most feel will be two years before he's ready to step in as a starter.  I think this effectively eliminates Kaepernick from consideration unless the Vikings are unable to make a trade and are left with either he or Iowa's Ricky Stanzi as a consolation prize.  This leaves Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder as their targets in this draft.  Based on mock drafts and recent buzz, Locker's draft range seems to be somewhere between Washington's pick at 10 and Seattle's at 25.  Of the other three, Mallett seems to have the highest draft ceiling at Miami's pick at 15, Dalton's seems to be to Seattle at 25 and Ponder's is likely at the top of round two.  Each of these three is expected to be off the board no later than Washington's round two selection at 41.  So, you can see the Vikings will have to find their way in to the mid to late first round in order to get the player they want unless they feel Locker is the best player at 12, which as mentioned above I don't think they do.  

We've effectively broken things down to four players and their draft ranges.  The next step, figuring out who best fits the Vikings offense, is tricky.  Why?  Well, we don't know much about the Vikings offense.  About all Coach Frazier and new Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave have shared is that the offense won't be bound by one system and will be built around the skill sets of the players.  While it hasn't been said, the expectation is that the offense will move away from the west coast version the previous regime ran to something closer to what Musgrave ran in Atlanta with Matt Ryan.  Ponder is said to be a perfect fit for the west coast offense and I expect that and his lack of arm strength puts him at the end of the Vikings wish list.  Dalton continues to rise up draft boards despite not wowing you with any part of his game other than simply winning and it's worth noting that the Vikings brought him to their recent top 30 prospect visit.  He doesn't possess the arm strength of Locker or Mallett, but he also has zero on or off field issues, making him the safest pick of the three.  I don't sense that this is enough to rank him ahead of Locker or Mallett and their considerably higher potential however, and feel the Vikings are eyeing one of these two as their quarterback of the future.  Locker's competitiveness, drive and work ethic put him at the top of the list in spite of his less than stellar completion percentage and overall performance.  Many of his issues can be attributed to only being a true quarterback for the last two years of his college career and more importantly being forced to carry a team that was seriously lacking in talent.  Mallett on the other hand had plenty of success on the field in college football's toughest conference, but his rumored character concerns off the field drop him slightly behind Locker.  He possesses without question the strongest arm in this draft class and if not for his limited athletic ability, he might be the top prospect from a pure quarterbacking standpoint.  Teams can survive poor character at other positions, but not at quarterback where you are often the face of the franchise and expected to be a leader on and off the filed.  Mallett's teammates and coaches at Arkansas gave him rave reviews which make these concerns seem to be more of a maturity thing that he can grow out of.  I'm sure the Vikings explored this thoroughly when they hosted Mallett at their top 30 visit.  This leaves us with a draft board of Locker, Mallett, Dalton and Ponder, any of whom the Vikings will have to make a trade to get.

The Vikings have said they are eyeing defensive end, offensive tackle, quarterback, safety and possibly even wide receiver at 12.  Reading through the smoke screen that's so prevalent this time of year, you can break that down further to DE, QB or trade down.  From a value standpoint there is no safety worth taking that high, their interest in offensive tackles I believe is overblown and a story for another day, and taking a receiver would effectively guarantee Sidney Rice isn't coming back and I don't believe they want to burn that bridge.  I do believe that the Vikings are very interested in Robert Quinn and Da'Quan Bowers at 12, and if Quinn is available I think they take him without question.  It's more likely that Bowers will still be available after a recent questions about the health of his knee have driven his stock down.  I think the Vikings would be more than happy with him but, I see them exploring trade down options in this scenario, banking on a team jumping at the chance to move up for a top 5 talent.  If neither is there, they'll focus entirely on trading down with reaching for Locker as the backup plan.  If Quinn or Bowers is the pick at 12, I fully expect that the team will try to trade back in to round one with possible targets being New England at 17 and any number of teams at the back end of the round beginning with New Orleans at 24.  If unable to make a move, they take whats left over at 43, likely Kaepernick, or if they miss out on the quarterback run entirely look at tackle, safety or defensive tackle.  As you can see, things can go any number of directions, but I think you can bank on the Vikings doing everything in their power to come away with a quarterback before pick 43.  I could be right or I could be completely wrong, but that's the unpredictable nature the draft.  The only thing you can count on is that it starts on April 28th, and for this Viking's fan that can't come soon enough.

2011 NFL Draft "All-Bust" List

While most NFL writers are working on their "mock drafts" right now (which 99% of them will be blown up before the 5th pick) I am going a different route.  I am going to do my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Bust" List, which is definitely subject to change after the draft depending on where people go though I believe some will be busts no matter where they are drafted.  Since I am not a scout or established writer with "sources" and access to game film, this list is based largely on my perception, and the games I did see these players play in (since I watch a lot of football I have seen these guys play quite a bit). So here we go, and by the way this list is not in any particular order, even though I do think that Jake Locker will be a bust no matter where he goes (even if he does play in Shanahan's bootleg heavy offense).

1)  Jake Locker-QB-Washington - He had a very overrated college career and I believe all the pre-draft hype on him has been centered around the fact that he was "supposedly a #1 overall pick prospect" (cough-cough McShay) coming into his Senior year.  But honestly what NFL team would draft a guy that I consider a 3rd-tier version of Tim Tebow (Who I did not think was worthy of a 1st round pick).  He was unable to make his team a winner (which I thought everybody considered a "Must Have" trait of an elite QB), his team won an unspectacular 32% of their games over his 4 year career there, I figure an "elite" QB should muster a few more than 16 wins over his college career.  Also his senior year he only competed:
-55.4% of his passes for 6.82 YPA(Yards Per Attempt) compared to
-64.7% & 9.41 YPA for Ryan Mallett,
-63.4% & 6.71 YPA for Blaine Gabbert and
-66.1% & 10.19 for Cam Newton (man this stat makes Newton look better than I think he is, I will have to blow this out of the water with further analysis in another article)

Another issue I have with Locker is his durability, he has taken a beating over his career thus far and suffered some injuries due to his style of play, and the guys hit a lot harder at the next level.....  The few times I saw him play I was always expecting big things because of what I heard from ESPN (cough-cough McShay) and instead I saw a guy that seemed slow to pick up on what the defense was doing, to quick to tuck and run (i.e. read #1 then run), not enough zip on his intermediate to deep routes, and just plain bad accuracy.  All that plus at his recent pro day, where a guy is supposed to "shine" he played it safe with mostly short and intermediate distance throws (click here to read more detail on it from my Twitter buddy @evansilva at ProFootballTalk.com). 

Overall I really do not see Jake Locker being successful in the NFL under any system, especially if Steve Sarkisian (a noted QB guru) could not make much of him.  I understand the guy is a great leader and fairly smart, so maybe he will provide good locker room presence and be a great "coach" on the sidelines (i.e. the next Jason Garrett), but I just do not see him as a starting caliber QB in the NFL...ever.



2)  Marcell Dareus-DL-Alabama - I know I am going to get reamed for this one, but to me Dareus is just not a "star".  I watched most of his college games and while he racked up some good numbers, I did not see him making a bunch of "impact plays" (yes I know he had some, i.e. National Championship game against always over-rated Texas).  Honestly this past year he reminded me of DeMarcus Ware, Ware led the league in sacks, but none of them ever seemed to be game changers, they all seemed to be in garbage time or at least "non-critical" moments in the game.  I believe that Marcell will have a solid, but unspectacular, NFL career, he will probably be in the league for 10-15 years and be a contributor, just never "the guy".  In fact he could be one of the better 3-4 ends (which is where I think he will eventually end up) in the league, which is like saying that you are the best long snapper, important but nobody notices.

Whenever I say that he didn't make "impact plays" I am always told that it was because "he played end in a 3-4, and in the NFL he will play 3-4 tackle".  Hmmmm....Let me see, Alabama runs an NFL style 3-4, and Nick Saban is a great defensive coach, don't you think that if Dareus was an impact player he would have had him at the position where he would make the most impact (tackle) and not at DE where he just takes on blockers to free up linebackers and plays the run?  Guys, this isn't like a college 4-3 DE being converted to 3-4 OLB.  The system will probably be nearly identical for him from college to the pros, and if he wasn't able to play the "impact" position in college, against inferior opponents, what makes you think he will be that guy in the NFL against far superior opponents? 

All this leads me to believe that Saban's coaching and solid 3-4 ends are hard to find.  He will never make the impact that a Top 5 pick should (and yes I know he will be a Top 5 pick, probably 1 or 2) and never be worth the huge money he will be paid and that is why I think he will be a bust.



3)  Blaine Gabbert-QB-Missouri - The guy wasn't that productive in college running a dink-and-dunk spread offense, does not see the field that well (never had to go further than his 1st or 2nd read), and before his senior season I had read where he was a late round QB at best, and I saw NOTHING in his senior season that would catapult him all the way to the #1 spot! The guy has no vision, he never looks more than 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, and has very little pocket presence. Don't say you didn't hear it here first that Gabbert has "BUST" written all over him! In fact, I think people just became enamored with his size and arm strength and/or they needed something to to talk/write about, like a kid who gets a crappy toy for his Birthday but because its new its the best one....

4)  Martez Wilson-LB-Illinois -In watching him play....he just never did it for me.  Wilson, with his physical gifts and in such a weak conference (Big Ten) should have been a superstar right off the bat, and he barely registered on the Big Ten Richter Scale (and in that conference it is hard not to register).  The guy has great athleticism and at the very least should be an exceptional pass coverage linebacker, he has the physical tools to play any LB position and could become an above average rush LB in a 3-4 defense....With all that said I think he will hold himself back more than anything else, while I do not think he is a bad guy, he gets himself in bad situations and that could derail his NFL career along with the rumors I have read about him taking plays off.....Two very bad traits that in combination could end his career before it starts.

5)  Jonathan Baldwin-WR-Pitt - Where to start with this guy....Seems to have it all, height, size, top end speed, catches everything, great body control, etc.  So with all the skills necessary to be an elite NFL WR, why do I have him on my "All-Bust" List?  Because his attitude and mouth remind me of Antonio Bryant.  This assessment comes from him doing everything from criticizing his coaching staff and QB after he had a sub par year, arrested for supposedly groping a girl on a bus, and just has a reputation as a diva.  All of this leads me to think that he will never fully utilize all the God-given talent that he has been blessed with.  Due to his size and athleticism he is certain to get drafted in the 2nd round at the latest, but without a good support system look for him to talk/act his way out of the league.

6) Da'Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson -  Bowers is not on this list due to his knee injury (though that does worry me a tiny bit), and he is not on this list due to his less than stellar Pro Day.  Bowers is on this list because he is one of those "1 year wonders" that worry me so much, and that is why his lack of production over the first 2 years of his college career throws huge red flags.  I mean the guy played the same position in the same system for 3 years totaling 1, 3, & 16 sacks respectively.  Why and how did he break-out like that all of a sudden?  There are a few reasons that come to mind, either he was lazy and unmotivated for the first two years, he just got lucky his final year (I did not get to watch many Clemson games I must admit...of course when I did Bowers did not stand out initially), or he could not live up to the "expectations".  Now hear me out on this last one, my thinking goes, he was a unanimous top prospect coming out of high school, told he was the best, unblockable, etc. and he believed it and severely underachieved his first two years in college and once he start thinking "Damn, I might not get paid" he turned it on.....

7) Justin Houston-LB-Georgia - I watch a lot of SEC games and I watched a lot of Georgia games this year and Just Houston just never stood out to me.  In fact I was amazed when I started seeing his name pop as a possible 1st round draft choice.  Never seemed to have the skills to play OLB, seemed a step to slow doing anything besides coming straight off the edge, and I never saw anything that even remotely translated to dropping back in coverage.

8) Casey Matthews-LB-Oregon - Besides the National Championship game I never noticed him.  Really I think he is getting a high grade based upon his lineage, and that does not fly with me.  He seems to small to be an every down backer and is best suited as a nickle linebacker in the mold of Bobby Carpenter (who was excellent in coverage). In my opinion he is a special teams player due to his hustle, and maybe in 3 years he could develop into a rotational spot in a linebacking corp.

While you are here make sure you check out some other my other popular articles like:

-Best WR in the 2011 Draft

-Why Ryan Mallett is the #1 QB in the Draft

-Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans

-The "X" Factor in the 2011 Draft:  D.J. Williams

-My two articles on how they can improve the NFL here and here

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Fine NFL, You want to cut 2 Preseason games, then do this!

I am going to attempt to justify keeping the standard 16 Regular Season Games + 4 Preseason Games format that the league currently uses.  I already addressed this briefly in a previous article, but I feel the need elaborate on it some more. One thing we know for sure though is that the NFL, its team owners and the players union (or association or whatever it is called now) care about one thing and one thing only, MONEY!  I do not blame them for being as greedy as they are, but I feel that if they shorten the preseason, even if they lengthen the regular season, the quality of the product consumed by the fans will be diminished.  The NFL needs the preseason to sort out which players are capable of playing under the lights and pressure during the regular season, to find out which guys are just scout team superstars and which ones can contribute on Sundays.  Since it appears fairly obvious that the NFL is going to have to cut the preseason down by half (4 games down to 2) I have found a way for them to do this and at the same time increase the quality of the product on Sunday's,  create more jobs at all levels of the organization, and most importantly (to the league, owners, and players) increase the revenue.

As previously stated, the main reason why the NFL needs the preseason is to see which players can perform in game situations and potentially contribute if called up on Sundays.  If you are an NFL player that was not drafted in the top rounds of the NFL draft, the only way that you get to show that you can play in the league is during the preseason.  During the regular season, if you are on the 8 man practice squad, and not part of the 53 man active roster you only get a chance to shine running the opposing teams offense and defense during practice while going against 1st and 2nd stringers that typically run half speed in practice, and on game days the practice squad does not even suit up, they spend the games watching in street clothes on the sideline, or if it's an away game they usually watch them at home like you and me.  Even if you do make the 53 active man roster you may only have a chance to show what you can do on a few special teams plays during the game, if you are not a starter or part of the regular rotation.  Your only true chance to shine may be because someone gets injured.  I think that there are a lot of guys that can play in the league, and play well, they just never get a chance to show it because of limited opportunities.  As a fan I enjoy the preseason games for 2 reasons: #1 because it's football, and #2 because I like trying to see if I can pick out a player that I might want to keep on tabs for fantasy football or mainly to see if I can spot the next guy that will make an impact in the league.  So how does the NFL solve these problems?  How do they cut the number of preseason games, improve the quality of the product on Sundays (and Thursdays and Mondays), while increasing revenue and keeping the regular season at 16 games?  Here is how....

#1 - They sell their NFL Network Thursday night slate of games to one of the networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, or ESPN).  From what I have read the league could easily create an extra $350 million in revenue by doing this.  This would not only increase profits, but allow for extra broadcast space for idea #2.

#2 - They purchase the UFL, the struggling football league that for the past couple of years has been trying to be a haven for guys who are either a few years removed from contributing to an NFL team, guys that are not even good enough to make the practice squad, or guys that may have been overlooked.  This would essentially be the NFL's version of minor league (I know they have their own free farm system called the NCAA but you cannot "call" players up from college on a need basis).  By purchasing this league the NFL could relegate their practice squad or scout team players to the UFL where they would be on 1 of 5 UFL teams (and they can add or subtract as they see fit) and teams can call up the players they sent down there whenever they want to, and put them back down there whenever they want.  And if the Dolphins wanted to pull a player that the Cardinals sent down to the minor league than the Dolphins would have to keep them on their active roster the rest of the season, and if the Dolphins place a "tender" on the player than the Dolphins have to give up certain draft picks, cash, etc.  The main benefit of this "minor league" to the players would be:  speed up the development of players by getting them live reps at full speed, create more jobs for players, and it would keep players in game shape by getting them live action.

The league would broadcast the UFL games on NFL Network so fans like myself could scout players that potentially could help out a team, and coaches would be able to see how the players react in game type situations at full speed.  These games would be played during the regular NFL season, and while details still need to be worked out, I imagine a system where a player spends half their time with their respective team and the other half with the minor league team.  The minor league teams would basically run simple vanilla offenses and defenses so that we are not giving the minor leaguers to much conflicting information, but the systems would allow them to call audibles and adjust coverages.   The ad revenue and stadium revenue would be split equally among the NFL teams, and this would create more jobs for NFL players, referees (almost like training), coaches, stadium personnel, network jobs (NFL Network broadcasting them and ESPN and other sports entities that would report and evaluate it), etc.  I do not see a downside to this, and I believe it would be very profitable. 

Now I know what you are thinking, "the NFL already tried this with NFL Europe and it failed".  This would be nothing like that, this would be American football, in American cities, where we know football is popular.  Fans would watch these games, maybe not on as regular a basis as the games that count, but they would always be looking for the next Tony Romo playing on the Florida Tuskers.  It would be a fan and family friendly venue that would be much more affordable then NFL games currently are.  I mean we already know that the most popular player in an NFL town is the backup QB.  Now think of the debate this would cause if a team like the Seahawks are struggling with either Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst at QB, but their 2nd round draft pick Jake Locker is setting the minor league football world on fire!  All of a sudden you would have every fan of every team with a poorly performing QB watching the minor league games that Locker is playing in, and writing their teams website and local newspaper, calling into talk radio, shouting at the top of their lungs that "X" team needs to steal Jake Locker right now and replace their current QB.  And hypothetically Jake Locker would be exclusive property of the Seahawks for 1-2 years possibly, or even 1/2 of the season, and if another team wanted to pick him up then they would have to give up two 1st round picks as compensation (or something of value to an NFL team).  Man the possibilities of this are endless!!

I am going to cut this off right here, I think I will follow up on this at a later date with a more detailed plan of how this could and should work.  To be honest the more I think about this, the better I feel that this idea really is.  The development of players would be increased 10X, the amount of jobs that would be created at all levels are enormous, the interest and debate this would cause amongst football fans, talk show hosts, newspaper writers, bloggers, tweeters, etc is ENDLESS!!  And the reason why the NFL should consider it, is because the additional revenue this would create for all sides is limited only by their creativity. The downside to this?  I just thought of it, and now they would have to give me a cut of it.....