While most NFL writers are working on their "mock drafts" right now (which 99% of them will be blown up before the 5th pick) I am going a different route. I am going to do my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Bust" List, which is definitely subject to change after the draft depending on where people go though I believe some will be busts no matter where they are drafted. Since I am not a scout or established writer with "sources" and access to game film, this list is based largely on my perception, and the games I did see these players play in (since I watch a lot of football I have seen these guys play quite a bit). So here we go, and by the way this list is not in any particular order, even though I do think that Jake Locker will be a bust no matter where he goes (even if he does play in Shanahan's bootleg heavy offense).
1) Jake Locker-QB-Washington - He had a very overrated college career and I believe all the pre-draft hype on him has been centered around the fact that he was "supposedly a #1 overall pick prospect" (cough-cough McShay) coming into his Senior year. But honestly what NFL team would draft a guy that I consider a 3rd-tier version of Tim Tebow (Who I did not think was worthy of a 1st round pick). He was unable to make his team a winner (which I thought everybody considered a "Must Have" trait of an elite QB), his team won an unspectacular 32% of their games over his 4 year career there, I figure an "elite" QB should muster a few more than 16 wins over his college career. Also his senior year he only competed:
-55.4% of his passes for 6.82 YPA(Yards Per Attempt) compared to
-64.7% & 9.41 YPA for Ryan Mallett,
-63.4% & 6.71 YPA for Blaine Gabbert and
-66.1% & 10.19 for Cam Newton (man this stat makes Newton look better than I think he is, I will have to blow this out of the water with further analysis in another article)
Another issue I have with Locker is his durability, he has taken a beating over his career thus far and suffered some injuries due to his style of play, and the guys hit a lot harder at the next level..... The few times I saw him play I was always expecting big things because of what I heard from ESPN (cough-cough McShay) and instead I saw a guy that seemed slow to pick up on what the defense was doing, to quick to tuck and run (i.e. read #1 then run), not enough zip on his intermediate to deep routes, and just plain bad accuracy. All that plus at his recent pro day, where a guy is supposed to "shine" he played it safe with mostly short and intermediate distance throws (click here to read more detail on it from my Twitter buddy @evansilva at ProFootballTalk.com).
Overall I really do not see Jake Locker being successful in the NFL under any system, especially if Steve Sarkisian (a noted QB guru) could not make much of him. I understand the guy is a great leader and fairly smart, so maybe he will provide good locker room presence and be a great "coach" on the sidelines (i.e. the next Jason Garrett), but I just do not see him as a starting caliber QB in the NFL...ever.
2) Marcell Dareus-DL-Alabama - I know I am going to get reamed for this one, but to me Dareus is just not a "star". I watched most of his college games and while he racked up some good numbers, I did not see him making a bunch of "impact plays" (yes I know he had some, i.e. National Championship game against always over-rated Texas). Honestly this past year he reminded me of DeMarcus Ware, Ware led the league in sacks, but none of them ever seemed to be game changers, they all seemed to be in garbage time or at least "non-critical" moments in the game. I believe that Marcell will have a solid, but unspectacular, NFL career, he will probably be in the league for 10-15 years and be a contributor, just never "the guy". In fact he could be one of the better 3-4 ends (which is where I think he will eventually end up) in the league, which is like saying that you are the best long snapper, important but nobody notices.
Whenever I say that he didn't make "impact plays" I am always told that it was because "he played end in a 3-4, and in the NFL he will play 3-4 tackle". Hmmmm....Let me see, Alabama runs an NFL style 3-4, and Nick Saban is a great defensive coach, don't you think that if Dareus was an impact player he would have had him at the position where he would make the most impact (tackle) and not at DE where he just takes on blockers to free up linebackers and plays the run? Guys, this isn't like a college 4-3 DE being converted to 3-4 OLB. The system will probably be nearly identical for him from college to the pros, and if he wasn't able to play the "impact" position in college, against inferior opponents, what makes you think he will be that guy in the NFL against far superior opponents?
All this leads me to believe that Saban's coaching and solid 3-4 ends are hard to find. He will never make the impact that a Top 5 pick should (and yes I know he will be a Top 5 pick, probably 1 or 2) and never be worth the huge money he will be paid and that is why I think he will be a bust.
3) Blaine Gabbert-QB-Missouri - The guy wasn't that productive in college running a dink-and-dunk spread offense, does not see the field that well (never had to go further than his 1st or 2nd read), and before his senior season I had read where he was a late round QB at best, and I saw NOTHING in his senior season that would catapult him all the way to the #1 spot! The guy has no vision, he never looks more than 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, and has very little pocket presence. Don't say you didn't hear it here first that Gabbert has "BUST" written all over him! In fact, I think people just became enamored with his size and arm strength and/or they needed something to to talk/write about, like a kid who gets a crappy toy for his Birthday but because its new its the best one....
4) Martez Wilson-LB-Illinois -In watching him play....he just never did it for me. Wilson, with his physical gifts and in such a weak conference (Big Ten) should have been a superstar right off the bat, and he barely registered on the Big Ten Richter Scale (and in that conference it is hard not to register). The guy has great athleticism and at the very least should be an exceptional pass coverage linebacker, he has the physical tools to play any LB position and could become an above average rush LB in a 3-4 defense....With all that said I think he will hold himself back more than anything else, while I do not think he is a bad guy, he gets himself in bad situations and that could derail his NFL career along with the rumors I have read about him taking plays off.....Two very bad traits that in combination could end his career before it starts.
5) Jonathan Baldwin-WR-Pitt - Where to start with this guy....Seems to have it all, height, size, top end speed, catches everything, great body control, etc. So with all the skills necessary to be an elite NFL WR, why do I have him on my "All-Bust" List? Because his attitude and mouth remind me of Antonio Bryant. This assessment comes from him doing everything from criticizing his coaching staff and QB after he had a sub par year, arrested for supposedly groping a girl on a bus, and just has a reputation as a diva. All of this leads me to think that he will never fully utilize all the God-given talent that he has been blessed with. Due to his size and athleticism he is certain to get drafted in the 2nd round at the latest, but without a good support system look for him to talk/act his way out of the league.
6) Da'Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson - Bowers is not on this list due to his knee injury (though that does worry me a tiny bit), and he is not on this list due to his less than stellar Pro Day. Bowers is on this list because he is one of those "1 year wonders" that worry me so much, and that is why his lack of production over the first 2 years of his college career throws huge red flags. I mean the guy played the same position in the same system for 3 years totaling 1, 3, & 16 sacks respectively. Why and how did he break-out like that all of a sudden? There are a few reasons that come to mind, either he was lazy and unmotivated for the first two years, he just got lucky his final year (I did not get to watch many Clemson games I must admit...of course when I did Bowers did not stand out initially), or he could not live up to the "expectations". Now hear me out on this last one, my thinking goes, he was a unanimous top prospect coming out of high school, told he was the best, unblockable, etc. and he believed it and severely underachieved his first two years in college and once he start thinking "Damn, I might not get paid" he turned it on.....
7) Justin Houston-LB-Georgia - I watch a lot of SEC games and I watched a lot of Georgia games this year and Just Houston just never stood out to me. In fact I was amazed when I started seeing his name pop as a possible 1st round draft choice. Never seemed to have the skills to play OLB, seemed a step to slow doing anything besides coming straight off the edge, and I never saw anything that even remotely translated to dropping back in coverage.
8) Casey Matthews-LB-Oregon - Besides the National Championship game I never noticed him. Really I think he is getting a high grade based upon his lineage, and that does not fly with me. He seems to small to be an every down backer and is best suited as a nickle linebacker in the mold of Bobby Carpenter (who was excellent in coverage). In my opinion he is a special teams player due to his hustle, and maybe in 3 years he could develop into a rotational spot in a linebacking corp.
While you are here make sure you check out some other my other popular articles like:
-Best WR in the 2011 Draft
-Why Ryan Mallett is the #1 QB in the Draft
-Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans
-The "X" Factor in the 2011 Draft: D.J. Williams
-My two articles on how they can improve the NFL here and here
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Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Best WR in the 2011 Draft - Rehash
I have been trying to post new piece once a day at the least, but with my paying job keeping me busy, having to spend time with the family (I mean WANTING to spend time, just kidding honey!!! Don't get mad), and it being relatively slow in the NFL world with the fan lockout (Yes, I think the owners and the players are locking out the fans and stopping us from enjoying our favorite past time. No matter how you slice it, we the fans, are the only victims in this ugly game) I have just not had enough time to get any real writing done. So while I work on constructing some new pieces with fresh ideas, I thought I would re-post one of my previous works. The reason I chose this one (with a few edits) is because I have been saying for a long time that Julio Jones was the best WR in the draft, and have been getting ridiculed for it. Well, now Peter King in MMQB has said that Jones has already passed Green on some teams boards (take that Evan Silva, just kidding....kinda...Follow Evan Silva on Twitter here @evansilva). So here is the article originally posted on February 28, 2011 (with a few edits).
The consensus top 2 receivers in the draft this year are A.J. Green of Georgia and Julio Jones of Alabama. From everything that I have read and watched on TV, A.J. Green is the unanimous best receiver in the class. I disagree.
Now I could try and make my point by focusing on the numbers from the "Underwear Olympics" (combine), and to set the record straight I do not believe that watching football players in tight shorts and shirts run around really tells you that much about how they will perform in full pads with 21 (I hope I did the math right) other players running around with them in the same confined area, but I will get to that later. I will use the combine numbers only because they strengthen my argument (might not be fair but I am doing it anyways). In all the important categories (40 yard dash is kind of important for WR's) Julio Jones outperformed A.J. Green. He was more than a second faster in the 40, had a better vertical leap by over 4 inches, and broad jumped by almost a foot more. The only area that A.J. Green won in was the measurements, he was just under 1 inch taller. These numbers tell me that Julio Jones is the better athlete and WR is a very athletic position. But like I said I am not going to use the combine numbers to try and make my point.
When I look at Jones and Green side by side the comparisons to current NFL WR's are instant. Jones reminds me of Terrell Owens while A.J. Green has more of a Randy Moss body. I believe Jones has more explosion off the line and will fight through jams at the line better than Green because he is a more physical WR. Jones's body type also lends itself to being able to take more hits and should allow him the advantage of "getting small" and absorbing hits while going across the middle while Green's body gives off the impression of being more of a deep, jump ball threat and while he may be able to go across the middle he leaves a bigger target for MLB's dropping into coverage and roaming safeties to unload on (even though I have watched Julio go up and get some balls during his college career). Overall I see Julio Jones as being more dynamic and A.J. Green being more 1-dimensional in the NFL. I could keep going on but I want to keep this at a decent length so people will read the whole thing before tuning out hopefully.
The most important criteria to evaluate when looking at draft prospects is without a doubt their college film. Unfortunately I do not have access to it and since I was not planning on starting a blog I do not have notes like I used to take during the football season, so this is going off what I remember and a few things that I have read. I remember both players being complete beasts in the SEC (which as a Razorback fan I follow closely), both players were "gamebreakers" capable of opening up a game with one play. Julio Jones stood out among all other players I watched the last couple of years and here is why:
1) He seemed to be used in more ways, I remember him being a powerful and agile runner on reverses and screens.
2) He always made the play when it mattered.
3) Most important he was a dynamic blocker for the run game. Everyone knows that Alabama has had one of the most powerful run games in the nation the last few years and Julio Jones was a major part in it. He was a strong blocker on the edge and you very rarely saw the guy he was blocking make the play. This tells me that he is ready to be an every down receive in the NFL, he will not be a liability in the running game. I would compare him to Hines Ward and Roy Williams (underrated as a blocker) when it comes to run blocking. Georgia also has a history of having a strong ground game, but I do not recall ever going "wow, look at that great block A.J. Green just threw" which I did many times during Bama games.
What stood out to me about A.J. Green's game which many will say is the most important is that he always seemed to catch the ball like he was bitten by a radioactive spider (Do not try microwaving a spider and having it bite you, it won't give you super powers, trust me). I specifically remember watching him work the sidelines in a few games and he was snatching everything out of the air. It kind of reminded me of the way Chris Carter used to work the sidelines except Green has big hands and a long reach that allow him to get the ball anywhere. The other stuff that I have read about Green say that he has the "it" factor, a nose for the ball, good route running, etc. Those things are vital in the NFL and I believe he will be a successful WR, just not as complete a player as Julio Jones.
As I have thought about this more and more, there are a couple of "red flags" that pop up when thinking/talking about Julio vs A.J. debate, and those are the ever important "character" issues. Julio Jones has none, was never in trouble in college (or should I say "never got caught in college"), has a work ethic superior to most prospects, and seems to be a well rounded guy overall. A.J. on the other hand, had a mini-scandal in college when he was busted selling his jersey. Editors Note: I completely disagree with almost everything the NCAA does and stands for (read about it here , here, & here so while I am going to "mark" A.J. because of this it is not because I think what he did was wrong, it is because he knew the rules and chose to break them anyways which to me means he does not make the best decisions. That small transgression, along with his reported 10 on the wonderlic test (which I do not think means much, read a great article about it from my good Twitter friend Luis DeLoureiro...Follow him here on Twitter @deloureiro) it leads me to wonder whether or not he will be able to make "sight adjustments" and read defenses at the next level.
Ultimately only time will tell (5 years minimum, 8 if you are Brandon Lloyd) who will be the better NFL WR, but in this day and age of paying huge salaries to unproven guys at the top of the draft, and how far a bad 1st round pick can set your franchise back, I am going with Julio Jones every time.
The consensus top 2 receivers in the draft this year are A.J. Green of Georgia and Julio Jones of Alabama. From everything that I have read and watched on TV, A.J. Green is the unanimous best receiver in the class. I disagree.
Now I could try and make my point by focusing on the numbers from the "Underwear Olympics" (combine), and to set the record straight I do not believe that watching football players in tight shorts and shirts run around really tells you that much about how they will perform in full pads with 21 (I hope I did the math right) other players running around with them in the same confined area, but I will get to that later. I will use the combine numbers only because they strengthen my argument (might not be fair but I am doing it anyways). In all the important categories (40 yard dash is kind of important for WR's) Julio Jones outperformed A.J. Green. He was more than a second faster in the 40, had a better vertical leap by over 4 inches, and broad jumped by almost a foot more. The only area that A.J. Green won in was the measurements, he was just under 1 inch taller. These numbers tell me that Julio Jones is the better athlete and WR is a very athletic position. But like I said I am not going to use the combine numbers to try and make my point.
When I look at Jones and Green side by side the comparisons to current NFL WR's are instant. Jones reminds me of Terrell Owens while A.J. Green has more of a Randy Moss body. I believe Jones has more explosion off the line and will fight through jams at the line better than Green because he is a more physical WR. Jones's body type also lends itself to being able to take more hits and should allow him the advantage of "getting small" and absorbing hits while going across the middle while Green's body gives off the impression of being more of a deep, jump ball threat and while he may be able to go across the middle he leaves a bigger target for MLB's dropping into coverage and roaming safeties to unload on (even though I have watched Julio go up and get some balls during his college career). Overall I see Julio Jones as being more dynamic and A.J. Green being more 1-dimensional in the NFL. I could keep going on but I want to keep this at a decent length so people will read the whole thing before tuning out hopefully.
The most important criteria to evaluate when looking at draft prospects is without a doubt their college film. Unfortunately I do not have access to it and since I was not planning on starting a blog I do not have notes like I used to take during the football season, so this is going off what I remember and a few things that I have read. I remember both players being complete beasts in the SEC (which as a Razorback fan I follow closely), both players were "gamebreakers" capable of opening up a game with one play. Julio Jones stood out among all other players I watched the last couple of years and here is why:
1) He seemed to be used in more ways, I remember him being a powerful and agile runner on reverses and screens.
2) He always made the play when it mattered.
3) Most important he was a dynamic blocker for the run game. Everyone knows that Alabama has had one of the most powerful run games in the nation the last few years and Julio Jones was a major part in it. He was a strong blocker on the edge and you very rarely saw the guy he was blocking make the play. This tells me that he is ready to be an every down receive in the NFL, he will not be a liability in the running game. I would compare him to Hines Ward and Roy Williams (underrated as a blocker) when it comes to run blocking. Georgia also has a history of having a strong ground game, but I do not recall ever going "wow, look at that great block A.J. Green just threw" which I did many times during Bama games.
What stood out to me about A.J. Green's game which many will say is the most important is that he always seemed to catch the ball like he was bitten by a radioactive spider (Do not try microwaving a spider and having it bite you, it won't give you super powers, trust me). I specifically remember watching him work the sidelines in a few games and he was snatching everything out of the air. It kind of reminded me of the way Chris Carter used to work the sidelines except Green has big hands and a long reach that allow him to get the ball anywhere. The other stuff that I have read about Green say that he has the "it" factor, a nose for the ball, good route running, etc. Those things are vital in the NFL and I believe he will be a successful WR, just not as complete a player as Julio Jones.
As I have thought about this more and more, there are a couple of "red flags" that pop up when thinking/talking about Julio vs A.J. debate, and those are the ever important "character" issues. Julio Jones has none, was never in trouble in college (or should I say "never got caught in college"), has a work ethic superior to most prospects, and seems to be a well rounded guy overall. A.J. on the other hand, had a mini-scandal in college when he was busted selling his jersey. Editors Note: I completely disagree with almost everything the NCAA does and stands for (read about it here , here, & here so while I am going to "mark" A.J. because of this it is not because I think what he did was wrong, it is because he knew the rules and chose to break them anyways which to me means he does not make the best decisions. That small transgression, along with his reported 10 on the wonderlic test (which I do not think means much, read a great article about it from my good Twitter friend Luis DeLoureiro...Follow him here on Twitter @deloureiro) it leads me to wonder whether or not he will be able to make "sight adjustments" and read defenses at the next level.
Ultimately only time will tell (5 years minimum, 8 if you are Brandon Lloyd) who will be the better NFL WR, but in this day and age of paying huge salaries to unproven guys at the top of the draft, and how far a bad 1st round pick can set your franchise back, I am going with Julio Jones every time.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
The "X" Factor in the 2011 NFL Draft - D.J. Williams - Arkansas Tight End
Again I am writing about Arkansas players because that is what I know. I am not giving them great marks across the board. I am trying to be unbiased and give an honest assessment of how their abilities will translate to the NFL, and today's piece on Arkansas Tight End D.J. Williams is no exception.
As a 6'2" 245lb Tight End you wouldn't think that D.J. Williams would be as intriguing an NFL prospect as he is. The guy's game is not perfect, he is undersized, needs to work on his blocking, will not outrun all NFL DB's like Vernon Davis, and does not make a ton of "highlight reel" grabs. He brings with him 3 years experience in Bobby Petrino's pro style offense that deployed him all over the field. What else does he bring? Versatility, rough life experiences that have made him mature beyond his years, and a team first mentality that makes him a "must have" for NFL teams. His resume is thick with awards such as:
**The John Mackey Award - Given to the best Tight End in 2010
**1st Team All SEC in 2008 & 2010
**2010 Disney Spirit Award Winner - Given to college football's most inspirational figure
D.J. Williams had a rough upbringing, his father was a drug abusing, alcoholic, physically abusive man who terrorized Wiliam's family until he was able to sneak away with his mother and sister. Williams watched numerous times as his abusive father (currently in jail) nearly killed his mother, and when they finally fled to a local Dallas area shelter, they were told it was still to dangerous and to get farther away, so to Little Rock they went. You can read the details of the story right here, and more about how great of a person he is right here, and I suggest you do, as it is an amazing story and these guys tell it much better than I ever could. The best thing to come out of this story is what D.J. is doing now to help other people that are in abusive relationships or anybody needing help. He uses his fame and his story to help people through community outreach programs ranging from Big Brothers & Big Sisters, Boys & Girls Club, Children's hospital, and attends elementary schools to mentor kids with fellow teammate Ryan Mallett. His easy going and approachable attitude allow him to make an impact anywhere he goes.
Enough about what made him what he is today, what can he do for your team on the field? The tight ends in the NFL today that I can compare him with are Dallas's Jason Witten and the Redskins Chris Cooley. I know, I know, Jason Witten is a 6'6" potential Hall of Fame tight end, and Chris Cooley is a guy that deserves Pro Bowl consideration every year. When I say that Williams game reminds me of theirs, its because he is a tight end that in the NFL will probably be used more as an H-Back; a tight end that is used in motion a lot, will line up in the backfield using his shorter stout frame to get solid leverage on D-linemen and linebackers when run blocking. Yes, he will need to work on his blocking skills, but a guy with his team first mentality and work ethic should have no problem picking it up. The other part of his game that reminds me of Witten and Cooley is that he works the field like a seasoned veteran, finding holes in zone coverage and sitting down in the open spots; while not incredibly athletic (neither are Witten or Cooley) he is extremely effective in the short passing/screen game where he will make a guy or two miss and turn a short gain into a 1st down. He has great soft hands and while he will not make the acrobatic catches, he will catch almost everything thrown to him useing his body to shield defenders from the game (just like Witten). And you want durable? Then he is your guy!
D.J. Williams, if put in the proper system will be an elite contributor at the next level, and I think that someone will trade up to grab him at the end of the 2nd or the beginning of the 3rd, if he is not snatched up early to middle 2nd round. No matter what system he is in, he will make plays, but to truly maximize his unique potential and gifts, he needs a creative offensive mind or a team that employs versatile tight ends. Teams that come to mind for me are: Indianapolis Colts (he would be a more versatile Dallas Clark but they don't need a TE), New England Patriots (even though they are set at TE for years to come), Houston Texans (again fairly set with Owen Daniels), Arizona Cardinals (they need a short to intermediate threat for whoever their QB of the future is), St. Louis Rams (Bradford needs more weapons, and face it not even I know who their TE's are). I am sure there are many other teams that could use him, but these are the ones that jumped out to me.
Not only will D.J. Williams make an impact between the white lines on Sunday's for whatever team is lucky enough to draft him, he will become an instant leader in the community and locker room, and provide valuable help for children and families in need. In 5 years, I see D.J. Williams as being labeled one of the biggest "steals" of the 2011 draft, on the field, and just as importantly for the community that drafts him.
As a 6'2" 245lb Tight End you wouldn't think that D.J. Williams would be as intriguing an NFL prospect as he is. The guy's game is not perfect, he is undersized, needs to work on his blocking, will not outrun all NFL DB's like Vernon Davis, and does not make a ton of "highlight reel" grabs. He brings with him 3 years experience in Bobby Petrino's pro style offense that deployed him all over the field. What else does he bring? Versatility, rough life experiences that have made him mature beyond his years, and a team first mentality that makes him a "must have" for NFL teams. His resume is thick with awards such as:
**The John Mackey Award - Given to the best Tight End in 2010
**1st Team All SEC in 2008 & 2010
**2010 Disney Spirit Award Winner - Given to college football's most inspirational figure
D.J. Williams had a rough upbringing, his father was a drug abusing, alcoholic, physically abusive man who terrorized Wiliam's family until he was able to sneak away with his mother and sister. Williams watched numerous times as his abusive father (currently in jail) nearly killed his mother, and when they finally fled to a local Dallas area shelter, they were told it was still to dangerous and to get farther away, so to Little Rock they went. You can read the details of the story right here, and more about how great of a person he is right here, and I suggest you do, as it is an amazing story and these guys tell it much better than I ever could. The best thing to come out of this story is what D.J. is doing now to help other people that are in abusive relationships or anybody needing help. He uses his fame and his story to help people through community outreach programs ranging from Big Brothers & Big Sisters, Boys & Girls Club, Children's hospital, and attends elementary schools to mentor kids with fellow teammate Ryan Mallett. His easy going and approachable attitude allow him to make an impact anywhere he goes.
Enough about what made him what he is today, what can he do for your team on the field? The tight ends in the NFL today that I can compare him with are Dallas's Jason Witten and the Redskins Chris Cooley. I know, I know, Jason Witten is a 6'6" potential Hall of Fame tight end, and Chris Cooley is a guy that deserves Pro Bowl consideration every year. When I say that Williams game reminds me of theirs, its because he is a tight end that in the NFL will probably be used more as an H-Back; a tight end that is used in motion a lot, will line up in the backfield using his shorter stout frame to get solid leverage on D-linemen and linebackers when run blocking. Yes, he will need to work on his blocking skills, but a guy with his team first mentality and work ethic should have no problem picking it up. The other part of his game that reminds me of Witten and Cooley is that he works the field like a seasoned veteran, finding holes in zone coverage and sitting down in the open spots; while not incredibly athletic (neither are Witten or Cooley) he is extremely effective in the short passing/screen game where he will make a guy or two miss and turn a short gain into a 1st down. He has great soft hands and while he will not make the acrobatic catches, he will catch almost everything thrown to him useing his body to shield defenders from the game (just like Witten). And you want durable? Then he is your guy!
D.J. Williams, if put in the proper system will be an elite contributor at the next level, and I think that someone will trade up to grab him at the end of the 2nd or the beginning of the 3rd, if he is not snatched up early to middle 2nd round. No matter what system he is in, he will make plays, but to truly maximize his unique potential and gifts, he needs a creative offensive mind or a team that employs versatile tight ends. Teams that come to mind for me are: Indianapolis Colts (he would be a more versatile Dallas Clark but they don't need a TE), New England Patriots (even though they are set at TE for years to come), Houston Texans (again fairly set with Owen Daniels), Arizona Cardinals (they need a short to intermediate threat for whoever their QB of the future is), St. Louis Rams (Bradford needs more weapons, and face it not even I know who their TE's are). I am sure there are many other teams that could use him, but these are the ones that jumped out to me.
Not only will D.J. Williams make an impact between the white lines on Sunday's for whatever team is lucky enough to draft him, he will become an instant leader in the community and locker room, and provide valuable help for children and families in need. In 5 years, I see D.J. Williams as being labeled one of the biggest "steals" of the 2011 draft, on the field, and just as importantly for the community that drafts him.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
How Two Arkansas O-Linemen will benefit in the NFL due to Bobby Petrino's offense
While it may seem that I am singling out Razorbacks to talk about in my articles lately, it is. The reason is because I have rarely missed their games in the past 10+ years (especially since Petrino took over and there games are actually on TV in my area) and I know about them, so I am going to write what I know. In a previous article I talked a lot about how Bobby Petrino's offense greatly benefited Ryan Mallett, and D.J. Williams, well it benefits most all the players on the offensive side of the ball, and since they have a couple of tackles and what I consider to be an elite Tight End available in the draft I thought I would talk about how they were helped also.
Another position that benefited from Petrino's offense is the linemen, specifically the tackles, and to a lesser extent the guards. For this exercise we are focusing on the two tackles that are draft eligible: DeMarcus Love and Ray Dominguez. In Petrino's offense there is not a "left tackle" and a "right tackle" there is the "strong tackle" and the "weak tackle". The tackles are constantly switching sides trying to take advantage of specific match ups the defense gives them. For a tackle (even though Dominguez will probably be a guard in the NFL) this means that both guys have experience playing with either hand down, and will be comfortable playing on either side of the line in the NFL. And we all know that NFL coaches value a "swing tackle" or any versatile player (especially O-linemen) very much at the pro level. This gives NFL teams flexibility, and increased continuity if there is an injury on the line, it's another aspect that gives NFL coaches more control (and NFL coaches are super control freaks). Another big advantage these two players have is that at Arkansas they ran a lot of zone blocking which translates to quite a few teams in the NFL.
Neither one of these guys is expected to be a high pick, I project them both to be mid-round guys (3-5 for Love and 5-7 for Dominguez), but they bring other assets to the table. For DeMarcus Love he has good size for a left tackle, but will probably play right tackle in the league, but his work ethic on and off the field are unrivaled, along with his dedication to community service, he is quiet but leads by example. Ray Dominguez on the other hand is to slow with to short of arms and not powerful enough to be an effective tackle in the NFL at this point. Given some time in an NFL weight room I believe he will be at most an effective Right Guard in the NFL, and at the worst he will be a great insurance policy as a guy that can line up at many spots on the line.
So no matter which way you slice it these two guys provide good value in this draft.
Another position that benefited from Petrino's offense is the linemen, specifically the tackles, and to a lesser extent the guards. For this exercise we are focusing on the two tackles that are draft eligible: DeMarcus Love and Ray Dominguez. In Petrino's offense there is not a "left tackle" and a "right tackle" there is the "strong tackle" and the "weak tackle". The tackles are constantly switching sides trying to take advantage of specific match ups the defense gives them. For a tackle (even though Dominguez will probably be a guard in the NFL) this means that both guys have experience playing with either hand down, and will be comfortable playing on either side of the line in the NFL. And we all know that NFL coaches value a "swing tackle" or any versatile player (especially O-linemen) very much at the pro level. This gives NFL teams flexibility, and increased continuity if there is an injury on the line, it's another aspect that gives NFL coaches more control (and NFL coaches are super control freaks). Another big advantage these two players have is that at Arkansas they ran a lot of zone blocking which translates to quite a few teams in the NFL.
Neither one of these guys is expected to be a high pick, I project them both to be mid-round guys (3-5 for Love and 5-7 for Dominguez), but they bring other assets to the table. For DeMarcus Love he has good size for a left tackle, but will probably play right tackle in the league, but his work ethic on and off the field are unrivaled, along with his dedication to community service, he is quiet but leads by example. Ray Dominguez on the other hand is to slow with to short of arms and not powerful enough to be an effective tackle in the NFL at this point. Given some time in an NFL weight room I believe he will be at most an effective Right Guard in the NFL, and at the worst he will be a great insurance policy as a guy that can line up at many spots on the line.
So no matter which way you slice it these two guys provide good value in this draft.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Why Andy Dalton fits perfectly with the Titans
My top 5 QB's in the 2011 draft goes something like this:
1) Ryan Mallett (And not because I am a Razorback homer, I am taking the "hog glasses" off)
2a) Andy Dalton (For reasons to be explained further down)
2b) Christian Ponder (Another Article to explain)
3) Colin Kaepnerick (As a project QB)
4) All other project QB's (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, etc)
I have already explained what I see in Ryan Mallett and why I believe he is not only the most pro ready QB in the draft, but the best QB in the draft period. I feel there is a tie at the next level of QB's, and none of them are named Cam Newton, Jake Locker, or Blaine Gabbert. The reason I have Andy Dalton up there is not because he put up spectacular (but artificially inflated) numbers in college at TCU running out of a spread offense like some other QB's in the draft did, even though he did put up good numbers out of TCU's spread. It is because in Dalton I see a smart, game managing QB. Will he put up the huge numbers game in and game out that superstars such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees put up? No, but he could develop into that in 3-5 years possibly, but I do not think he should get drafted by a team where he will be expected to carry the load. I think he needs to get drafted by a team with a Pittsburgh type philosophy (*cough* *cough* Titans in 2nd round), a team that relies on a strong defense and running game, a team that only needs the quarterback to be an extension of the coach on the field, manage the game, make smart plays, put the ball in the hands of the playmakers on offense. In Pittsburgh Ben Roethlisberger won his first Super Bowl with a great defense and great run game that was able to overcome all his shortcomings as a quarterback (he has come a long ways since then). They won that Super Bowl in spite of "Big Ben" not because of him. Ben was brought along slowly in an a stable organization (which the Titans have been for the most part) where he learned to read defenses, make simple audibles, and adapt to the speed of the pro game where if he made a mistake his running game and defense were there to bail him out. This is how I see Andy Dalton's career playing out. I am not saying that he will be the next Ben Roethlisberger, because he won't be, they are two completely different QB's in size, arm strength, and ability. Some will question Dalton because of his size (6'2) and along with that his 3/4's release and say that he will struggle behind NFL O-lines, and I say look at Romo or Brees, plus he is extremely good rolling out of the pocket and throwing on the run. Others say he is not accurate enough, just because he was able to throw into big windows does not mean he is not accurate. I just think that Dalton needs to be put in the right situation which is Tennessee, here is what the Titans can offer....
Right now Tennessee is only a few pieces away from being playoff contenders, and maybe one more year before they could be legitimate title contenders. They are almost certain to use their 1st round pick (#8 overall) on a playmaking defensive line player that will be able to step in and make an immediate difference (i.e. Nick Fairley, or 1 of the many other DE's/DT's). Depending on the development of their other players on defense, I expect the majority of this draft to be used on the defensive side of the ball (save a some O-line depth and Dalton of course). They need to get bigger and more durable on the D-line, try to get a playmaking LB and a replacement for Chris Hope at safety since he is unlikely to be back with the team.
Most people look at the Titans offense and see a myriad of problems, I only see one, lack of a QB. I think their offense is on the verge, but with all the problems on the field and in the locker room cause by Vince Young the rest of the offense was stuck in neutral. I truly believe that VY, his lack of maturity, football smarts, well smarts in general is what doomed this team (and ultimately Jeff Fisher) from the get go. I believe they have all the other weapons needed to make this a potential Top 10 offense, and most of all be balanced. I think Kerry Collins should be brought back to help Andy Dalton (this is all hypothetical, and based on them doing what they should and listening to me and drafting Dalton at the top of the 2nd round), or a veteran leader that will help him develop. We know they have a top 5 RB in Chris Johnson, who is both a threat running the ball as well as taking short passes out of the backfield. They have a reliable and underrated backup in Javon Ringer, who will not wow you with any 1 skill, but is well suited to being a productive back.
They have the "playmaker" on the outside at WR in former 1st round draft pick Kenny Britt, who has shown flashes when he is given the opportunity, and as long as he will get his focus on the field and stay out of bad situations (and away from controversial people) off of it. I believe last years 2nd round pick, Damian Williams, will benefit the most from having a smart accurate QB like Dalton. Williams reminds me of a possession receiver, he will fight for the ball, excels in traffic, but not a flashy WR. He will go across the middle and catch almost anything thrown at him. They also have some deep threats at WR that can stretch the field and open up underneath routes. At the Tight End position I believe this will be the year that Jared Cook breaks out, he has already been working out and trying to improve his blocking skills. While blocking will need to be a piece of his game, I see him as the ultimate safety valve for a young QB such as Dalton. Cook is an athletic freak who is a mismatch for anybody that attempts to cover him (linebacker, nickle back, safety, DE dropping into the flats), and he will be a threat to make a huge gain and even score every time he touches the ball. So we know that Dalton will have plenty of weapons to utilize, and with his smarts he will utilize them well.
The final piece of the puzzle for the Titans is the offensive line. The team has some issues at the interior line positions (guards & center specifically LG) and since their head coach is the former O-Line coach and since they brought in Bruce Matthews to be the new O-line coach, do not expect them to spend high draft picks or big money in free agency (if there is FA) in upgrading the line. I still do not understand the teams reluctance in bringing back Kevin Mawae who still has/had a few good years left in him at center. Not only was he the best candidate for center he also would have ensured that everybody else knew what to do. Center is currently a question mark with Eugene Amano recovering from a season ending neck injury that required surgery, and I believe it would be best to move him back to left guard where him and Michael Roos(Left Tackle) were a formidable tandem (unlikely to happen). Left Guard needs to be upgraded from incumbent Leroy Harris who I believe is better suited as a quality backup that can fill many positions on the line, in fact I always thought that as a smarter O-lineman and with his great use of angles and leverage that he would be better suited for center, but for some reason that a coach and not myself would know he is not.
With what appears to be a solid team already built, and mainly lacking a QB, I still feel that Andy Dalton would be a great fit here, now maybe someone will read this and rip my reasoning apart, or decide that "damn he is good" and want me working for their organization.
Other teams that might be a good fit for Dalton:
-Carolina Panthers - Strong run game, but to many holes for 1 guy to fill
-Miami Dolphins - Always a good running team even though both primary backs are scheduled for free agency, and they have a solid defense in place, but they are probably tired of throwing 2nd round picks at QB's and I do not blame them (Pat White, Chad Henne, John Beck all draft picks, and they traded 2nd round picks for Daunte Culpepper, Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley if my memory serves me correct)
-Minnesota Vikings - Probably best RB duo in the NFL with A. Peterson and Toby Gerhart, and a defense that is looking to get younger but still solid, they may be looking for an instant upgrade through trade.
1) Ryan Mallett (And not because I am a Razorback homer, I am taking the "hog glasses" off)
2a) Andy Dalton (For reasons to be explained further down)
2b) Christian Ponder (Another Article to explain)
3) Colin Kaepnerick (As a project QB)
4) All other project QB's (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, etc)
I have already explained what I see in Ryan Mallett and why I believe he is not only the most pro ready QB in the draft, but the best QB in the draft period. I feel there is a tie at the next level of QB's, and none of them are named Cam Newton, Jake Locker, or Blaine Gabbert. The reason I have Andy Dalton up there is not because he put up spectacular (but artificially inflated) numbers in college at TCU running out of a spread offense like some other QB's in the draft did, even though he did put up good numbers out of TCU's spread. It is because in Dalton I see a smart, game managing QB. Will he put up the huge numbers game in and game out that superstars such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees put up? No, but he could develop into that in 3-5 years possibly, but I do not think he should get drafted by a team where he will be expected to carry the load. I think he needs to get drafted by a team with a Pittsburgh type philosophy (*cough* *cough* Titans in 2nd round), a team that relies on a strong defense and running game, a team that only needs the quarterback to be an extension of the coach on the field, manage the game, make smart plays, put the ball in the hands of the playmakers on offense. In Pittsburgh Ben Roethlisberger won his first Super Bowl with a great defense and great run game that was able to overcome all his shortcomings as a quarterback (he has come a long ways since then). They won that Super Bowl in spite of "Big Ben" not because of him. Ben was brought along slowly in an a stable organization (which the Titans have been for the most part) where he learned to read defenses, make simple audibles, and adapt to the speed of the pro game where if he made a mistake his running game and defense were there to bail him out. This is how I see Andy Dalton's career playing out. I am not saying that he will be the next Ben Roethlisberger, because he won't be, they are two completely different QB's in size, arm strength, and ability. Some will question Dalton because of his size (6'2) and along with that his 3/4's release and say that he will struggle behind NFL O-lines, and I say look at Romo or Brees, plus he is extremely good rolling out of the pocket and throwing on the run. Others say he is not accurate enough, just because he was able to throw into big windows does not mean he is not accurate. I just think that Dalton needs to be put in the right situation which is Tennessee, here is what the Titans can offer....
Right now Tennessee is only a few pieces away from being playoff contenders, and maybe one more year before they could be legitimate title contenders. They are almost certain to use their 1st round pick (#8 overall) on a playmaking defensive line player that will be able to step in and make an immediate difference (i.e. Nick Fairley, or 1 of the many other DE's/DT's). Depending on the development of their other players on defense, I expect the majority of this draft to be used on the defensive side of the ball (save a some O-line depth and Dalton of course). They need to get bigger and more durable on the D-line, try to get a playmaking LB and a replacement for Chris Hope at safety since he is unlikely to be back with the team.
Most people look at the Titans offense and see a myriad of problems, I only see one, lack of a QB. I think their offense is on the verge, but with all the problems on the field and in the locker room cause by Vince Young the rest of the offense was stuck in neutral. I truly believe that VY, his lack of maturity, football smarts, well smarts in general is what doomed this team (and ultimately Jeff Fisher) from the get go. I believe they have all the other weapons needed to make this a potential Top 10 offense, and most of all be balanced. I think Kerry Collins should be brought back to help Andy Dalton (this is all hypothetical, and based on them doing what they should and listening to me and drafting Dalton at the top of the 2nd round), or a veteran leader that will help him develop. We know they have a top 5 RB in Chris Johnson, who is both a threat running the ball as well as taking short passes out of the backfield. They have a reliable and underrated backup in Javon Ringer, who will not wow you with any 1 skill, but is well suited to being a productive back.
They have the "playmaker" on the outside at WR in former 1st round draft pick Kenny Britt, who has shown flashes when he is given the opportunity, and as long as he will get his focus on the field and stay out of bad situations (and away from controversial people) off of it. I believe last years 2nd round pick, Damian Williams, will benefit the most from having a smart accurate QB like Dalton. Williams reminds me of a possession receiver, he will fight for the ball, excels in traffic, but not a flashy WR. He will go across the middle and catch almost anything thrown at him. They also have some deep threats at WR that can stretch the field and open up underneath routes. At the Tight End position I believe this will be the year that Jared Cook breaks out, he has already been working out and trying to improve his blocking skills. While blocking will need to be a piece of his game, I see him as the ultimate safety valve for a young QB such as Dalton. Cook is an athletic freak who is a mismatch for anybody that attempts to cover him (linebacker, nickle back, safety, DE dropping into the flats), and he will be a threat to make a huge gain and even score every time he touches the ball. So we know that Dalton will have plenty of weapons to utilize, and with his smarts he will utilize them well.
The final piece of the puzzle for the Titans is the offensive line. The team has some issues at the interior line positions (guards & center specifically LG) and since their head coach is the former O-Line coach and since they brought in Bruce Matthews to be the new O-line coach, do not expect them to spend high draft picks or big money in free agency (if there is FA) in upgrading the line. I still do not understand the teams reluctance in bringing back Kevin Mawae who still has/had a few good years left in him at center. Not only was he the best candidate for center he also would have ensured that everybody else knew what to do. Center is currently a question mark with Eugene Amano recovering from a season ending neck injury that required surgery, and I believe it would be best to move him back to left guard where him and Michael Roos(Left Tackle) were a formidable tandem (unlikely to happen). Left Guard needs to be upgraded from incumbent Leroy Harris who I believe is better suited as a quality backup that can fill many positions on the line, in fact I always thought that as a smarter O-lineman and with his great use of angles and leverage that he would be better suited for center, but for some reason that a coach and not myself would know he is not.
With what appears to be a solid team already built, and mainly lacking a QB, I still feel that Andy Dalton would be a great fit here, now maybe someone will read this and rip my reasoning apart, or decide that "damn he is good" and want me working for their organization.
Other teams that might be a good fit for Dalton:
-Carolina Panthers - Strong run game, but to many holes for 1 guy to fill
-Miami Dolphins - Always a good running team even though both primary backs are scheduled for free agency, and they have a solid defense in place, but they are probably tired of throwing 2nd round picks at QB's and I do not blame them (Pat White, Chad Henne, John Beck all draft picks, and they traded 2nd round picks for Daunte Culpepper, Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley if my memory serves me correct)
-Minnesota Vikings - Probably best RB duo in the NFL with A. Peterson and Toby Gerhart, and a defense that is looking to get younger but still solid, they may be looking for an instant upgrade through trade.
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