Q & A: What is the safest Position In The Draft?

By:  Bobby Shores
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Question:  With the 2012 NFL Draft coming up, the Cowboys needing to fill multiple holes and with multiple players that could/should be available at those positions of need when they pick at #14 (Courtney Upshaw-OLB, David DeCastro-G, Dre' Kirkpatrick/Janoris Jenkins/Alfonzo Denard-CB, Mark Barron S); what do you consider to be the safest position in the 1st round of the draft?

ReclinerQB Thoughts:  The first thought that came to mind when I heard this question was interior lineman, so I thought I would do some quick research and look at the interior offensive linemen (guards and centers) taken in the first round for the past 14 years (all the way back to 1998). Remember I did this fairly quickly and am only picking players that were drafted as interior linemen, not players that were drafted as tackles and then moved to the interior line (Leonard Davis and Robert Gallery for example), and I am also basing this strictly off what I know of the player and not advanced scouting, if I run into a player I am not very familiar with then I will do a quick search.

1. Verdict Still Out-Mike Pouncey(2011)-15-Dolphins - Was playing very well until his season was ended with an ankle injury.
2. Verdict Still Out-Danny Watkins(2011)-23-Eagles - Watkins was expected to be able to contribute immediately, but struggled and was benched early in the season and did not see the field again until late. Obviously way to early to make a determination on someone after only 1 year, and I believe that the lockout severely hurt the 2011 rookie class.
3. Good-Mike Iupati(2010)-17-Niners - Instant starter and has been very impressive since being drafted, quick, strong and works hard.
4. Good-Maurkice Pouncey(2010)-18-Steelers - Instant All-Pro and instantly one of the best Centers in the league.
5. Good-Alex Mack(2009)-21-Browns - Pro Bowl Center and one of the better Centers in the league, will be a stalwart on the Browns offensive line.
6. Good-Ben Grubbs(2007)-29-Ravens - Been a solid starter since entering the league and will be the 2nd best guard in free agency this year behind Carl Nicks.
7. Good-Davin Joseph(2006)-23-Bucs - Resigned with the Bucs last year on a $50+ million dollar deal which shows that he is one of the better guards in the league.
8. Good-Nick Mangold(2006)-29-Jets - Probably the best Center in the league, 'Nuff Said!
9. Average-Chris Spencer(2005)-26-Seahawks - Probably the worst player on this list, he is an average player, nothing more, nothing less.
10. Good-Logan Mankins(2005)-32-Patriots - While he had kind of a down year, or at least a down 2nd half to the season he is one of the best guards (I am kinda getting tired of typing nearly the same thing every time).
11. Average-Jeff Faine(2003)-21-Browns - He has played for a long time in the league and played well, in fact he played better after the Browns traded him earning a Pro Bowl nod as a Saint (of course the Browns traded him before his prime....surprise!)
12. Average-Kendall Simmons(2002)-30-Steelers - Had some good years, sandwiched between numerous injuries, probably would have been much better if not for injuries 
13. Good-Steve Hutchinson(2001)-17-Seahawks - While his game is finally starting to tail off, he was the premier offensive guard in the NFL for many many many years.
14. Good-Damien Woody(1999)-17-Patriots - Good player for a lot of years, eventually playing all positions on the offensive line during his career, best years were probably with the Patriots (except Shotgun snaps)
15. Good-Alan Faneca(1998)-26-Steelers - Future Hall of Famer

Wow! Wow! Wow! Wow! So I do not even think I will check other positions, as interior line is BY FAR the safest position in the draft, and it is not even close!! There is basically about 1 taken per year in the first round of the draft, and I don't consider any of them to be "busts", there are 7 of them that are/were/will be perennial All-Pro and Pro Browl Players (Faneca, Hutchinson, Mankins, Mangold, Iupati, Ma. Pouncey and Mi. Pouncey), with most of the others having at least one Pro Bowl appearance on their resume. In fact, I would label only Chris Spencer as not living up to expectations, and the notes I have on him (2004 was the first year I really got into the draft) say that he was a reach at #26, and realistically was maybe a second rounder but probably a third rounder.

Because interior linemen are not valued as highly as other positions, it means that only the "Best of the Best"
 are taken in the first round, and teams do not "reach/project" as much, and the general consensus is that you can get an impact player in the first and get nearly as good quality player for your interior offensive line in the second and later rounds (which is not entirely true).

The person that asked this question, did so on the basis of whether or not the Cowboys should draft Stanford Guard David DeCastro at #14 if he is available, which looking at this list he would be as no interior lineman has been taken higher than #15 in the last 15 years. I said well I think taking DeCastro would be a "safe pick", as I have seen no glaring weakness in his game and I think he would fit very well in the Cowboys scheme.

So I would not be disappointed if the Cowboys took DeCastro at #14 as the numbers tell me there is about a 93% success rate, and I will go on a limb and say its about 98% if you do not reach for the player. I believe that DeCastro would form one of the best sides of a line in the NFL for at least 10 years if you teamed him with rookie sensation Tyron Smith (Think Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson). While it is not as big a need position as say cornerback or pass rusher, he will be the closest thing to a "Guarantee" in this draft.

I am even going to start picking the best interior lineman in every single draft and calling him the "safest pick in the draft" and I think I will be right 90% of the time. Anytime you get a 10 year starter in the first round, then you are doing good.

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Dallas Cowboys Breakdown: Offensive Guard

By:  Bobby Shores

(This is the second part of a multi-part series breaking down the Dallas Cowboys by position, identifying areas of need and possible solutions for those needs, based on my film work and notes taken throughout the season, the first part was Offensive Tackle)

Veteran Cowboys Guard Kyle Kosier

After the 2010 season it was obvious that the Cowboys needed to upgrade the offensive line, especially the guard position, and the team tried to address it in the draft taking guards in the fourth round (David Arkin) and the seventh round (Bill Nagy), while also addressing it by retaining/signing a number of veterans to compete and provide depth in Montrae Holland, Kyle Kosier and Derrick Dockery.

The Cowboys gave their rookies every opportunity to play after they released veteran guard and constant underachiever Leonard Davis. Unfortunately, Arkin was not ready to contribute coming from a small school and Nagy won the job by default, helped by the fact that he came from Wisconsin which produces NFL offensive linemen, Penn State produces NFL linebackers, Southern Cal produces NFL quarterbacks, and Texas produces NFL "busts". Holland was eventually released due to a bad back and poor conditioning (those two conditions were directly related).

Fast forward to October 16 and Nagy is placed on injured reserve, Derrick Dockery is still nursing a sprained MCL, Kyle Kosier is already banged up and now what appeared to be a strength in the preseason became a major liability. Enter Holland, who came back after getting in shape and the entire offense immediately improved.....

One advantage the Cowboys have at the guard position is a lot of bodies, from veteran stop-gaps and young players that the fans and organization have high expectations for, to a wide range of options in the draft and free agency. In fact, the guard position may be one of the most talked about positions on the Cowboys team from now until the season starts. So what do they have right now and what options do they have heading into the 2012 season.

Montrae Holland (Free Agent) - After being cut in training camp due to conditioning and back issues, Holland was brought back to start at Guard for the Cowboys after injuries and ineffectiveness; excelling in the 10 games he started. I believe that Holland (and Tony Fiammetta) was the primary reason for the emergence of DeMarco Murray along with the overall improvement in the line play as the season went on, as he is quick off the line for a man his size and is both strong and tough. While Holland is not a long term solution at guard, he should be brought back on a short term contract to compete come training camp, dependent on his recovery from biceps surgery and his level of conditioning. If the team is unable to draft a long term option at guard, sign a big money free agent or develop one of the younger guys; than Holland should come back as a starter.

Kyle Kosier (signed through 2013) - Kosier has been the most underrated offensive lineman for the Cowboys over the past few seasons while struggling with injuries throughout his time with the team. After being hampered by a foot injury for most of the year, his season ended just before the rest of the team when he tore his MCL in the final game of the season.

Kosier's strengths are his intelligence and technique, consistently getting underneath larger/stronger defenders and using leverage to control them. While Kosier will be with the 'Boys in training camp, he is not guaranteed a roster spot. One way to improve his odds of making the team is a position change to Center, which will be addressed in the next installment of this series (yes, I am plugging my next article, hopefully it works and you will be back).

Bill Nagy (signed through 2014) - As a rookie 7th round draft pick, not many expected Nagy to see much playing time this year, while others (myself included) prayed that he would not see many snaps. On film (from my perspective) Nagy was completely unable to move anybody, ending up 2-3 steps in the backfield in pass protection and was blown up by linebackers when he tried to clear running lanes as the pulling guard (and he had a full head of steam). He also drops his hands when not engaged with a defender wasting movement and time to get them in position.

While never seeming to make mental mistakes (seems intelligent), the NFL game was to fast and strong for him this past year, after a full off season hopefully he can get stronger and learn to use his hands to leverage defenders (should learn from Kosier). Also the Center may prove to be a better fit for Nagy going forward (again this will be addressed in the next installment).

David Arkin (signed through 2014) - As a rookie 4th round pick, Arkin was inactive for all 16 games after starting off camp playing with the first team. Only notes (from the preseason obviously) I have on him are that while he was routinely overpowered he showed more hustle than all other linemen, he seems to play with a mean streak (both hustle and mean streak contributed to a late hit penalty in preseason game against Vikings) and is excellent at getting to the second level and getting his head across the defender and into position to control where his man goes.

Coming from a small school (Missouri State) where he played left tackle his senior year (3 years at right guard), transitioning to the NFL game appeared to be much harder for him, especially without an off season. I have heard recently that the team is very high on Arkin and has the same belief in him i do, that he will become an NFL starter. If Arkin can develop in the weight room, look for him to compete with the veterans for a starting spot, and to be no worse than a backup (no more practice squad).

Derrick Dockery (Free Agent) - Another aging guard who has struggled with injuries, Dockery is an experienced player who played well in his two starts and should garner a training camp spot as an insurance policy against injuries and ineffective play.

Free Agent/Draft Options

Saints Guard & UFA Carl Nicks

Carl Nicks (unrestricted free agent - Saints) - Nicks is the guard that has all the Cowboys fans talking, and for good reason. He is by far the best free agent guard (and possibly the best free agent lineman overall) and with the Saints already committing big money to their other guard Jahri Evans and having Drew Brees and Marques Colston as unrestricted free agents, it looks like Nicks will be playing in a new uniform next year.

As a 27 year old All-Pro just entering his prime, Nicks will demand/land a contract that rivals (and in all likelihood will exceed), current teammate Evans and Patriots guard Logan Mankins recent bank busting of between $8-9 million per year on a 6-7 year deal.

With no major weaknesses in his game that I can see, he will be worth it. The Cowboys have the cap room and Jerry Jones has never shied away from spending money on guards in free agency (see:  Marco Rivera, Leonard Davis, & Kyle Kosier). The wildcard in the "Carl Nicks Sweepstakes" that may help Dallas could be his connection to new offensive line coach Bill Callahan who recruited and coached him at Nebraska.

Other notable free agents:  Ben Grubbs(Ravens), Chilo Rachal(Niners), Jake Scott(Titans), Deuce Lutui(Cardinals)

Stanford Guard David DeCastro

There are a lot of mock drafts that currently have the Cowboys using their first round pick on the consensus No. 1 Guard in the draft, Stanford's David DeCastro, which is hard to argue with as DeCastro appears to be one of the safer players in the draft. Coming from Stanford's pro-style offense, DeCastro will be one of the top guards in the NFL the day he is drafted, as he displays excellent awareness/instincts and is very good whether he is blocking in traffic or space. He displays lots of hustle, always blocking to the whistle.

The other viable draft option is to take a "second tier" guard with their second or third pick where Georgia's Cordy Glenn, Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler, or Wake Forest's Joe Looney should be available.

2012 Outlook

So what should the Cowboys do at the guard position for 2012? While many fans, radio people, bloggers, analysts, etc. are saying they should either draft DeCastro with their first round pick or pay big money to Nicks in free agency, I believe they should stand pat with what they have.

The Cowboys have MUCH bigger problems than guard, in fact it is not even their biggest need on the offensive line (Center is), and the guard play this past season was above average once Holland returned to the team healthy and in shape. And from everything I have heard, the team believes they have a starting caliber guard in Arkin, and see potential in Nagy. So develop those two and bring back one (or a mix of) the veterans that are still playing well (Kosier, Holland, & Dockery).

I think we can all agree that the money and draft picks need to be used to fix the secondary, defensive line, center and/or for another pass rusher to take the pressure off of DeMarcus Ware. This team has a lot of holes/weak spots and they cannot all be addressed in one off season, so take care of the areas with the biggest deficiencies first.  With all that said, I cannot disagree with upgrading if Nicks or Grubbs is available for a good price, OR taking DeCastro at fourteen if he is the highest rated player their board.

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