By: Bobby Shores
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Question: With the 2012 NFL Draft coming up, the Cowboys needing to fill multiple holes and with multiple players that could/should be available at those positions of need when they pick at #14 (Courtney Upshaw-OLB, David DeCastro-G, Dre' Kirkpatrick/Janoris Jenkins/Alfonzo Denard-CB, Mark Barron S); what do you consider to be the safest position in the 1st round of the draft?ReclinerQB Thoughts: The first thought that came to mind when I heard this question was interior lineman, so I thought I would do some quick research and look at the interior offensive linemen (guards and centers) taken in the first round for the past 14 years (all the way back to 1998). Remember I did this fairly quickly and am only picking players that were drafted as interior linemen, not players that were drafted as tackles and then moved to the interior line (Leonard Davis and Robert Gallery for example), and I am also basing this strictly off what I know of the player and not advanced scouting, if I run into a player I am not very familiar with then I will do a quick search.
- Verdict Still Out-Mike Pouncey(2011)-15-Dolphins - Was playing very well until his season was ended with an ankle injury.
- Verdict Still Out-Danny Watkins(2011)-23-Eagles - Watkins was expected to be able to contribute immediately, but struggled and was benched early in the season and did not see the field again until late. Obviously way to early to make a determination on someone after only 1 year, and I believe that the lockout severely hurt the 2011 rookie class.
- Good-Mike Iupati(2010)-17-Niners - Instant starter and has been very impressive since being drafted, quick, strong and works hard.
- Good-Maurkice Pouncey(2010)-18-Steelers - Instant All-Pro and instantly one of the best Centers in the league.
- Good-Alex Mack(2009)-21-Browns - Pro Bowl Center and one of the better Centers in the league, will be a stalwart on the Browns offensive line.
- Good-Ben Grubbs(2007)-29-Ravens - Been a solid starter since entering the league and will be the 2nd best guard in free agency this year behind Carl Nicks.
- Good-Davin Joseph(2006)-23-Bucs - Resigned with the Bucs last year on a $50+ million dollar deal which shows that he is one of the better guards in the league.
- Good-Nick Mangold(2006)-29-Jets - Probably the best Center in the league, 'Nuff Said!
- Average-Chris Spencer(2005)-26-Seahawks - Probably the worst player on this list, he is an average player, nothing more, nothing less.
- Good-Logan Mankins(2005)-32-Patriots - While he had kind of a down year, or at least a down 2nd half to the season he is one of the best guards (I am kinda getting tired of typing nearly the same thing every time).
- Average-Jeff Faine(2003)-21-Browns - He has played for a long time in the league and played well, in fact he played better after the Browns traded him earning a Pro Bowl nod as a Saint (of course the Browns traded him before his prime....surprise!)
- Average-Kendall Simmons(2002)-30-Steelers - Had some good years, sandwiched between numerous injuries, probably would have been much better if not for injuries
- Good-Steve Hutchinson(2001)-17-Seahawks - While his game is finally starting to tail off, he was the premier offensive guard in the NFL for many many many years.
- Good-Damien Woody(1999)-17-Patriots - Good player for a lot of years, eventually playing all positions on the offensive line during his career, best years were probably with the Patriots (except Shotgun snaps)
- Good-Alan Faneca(1998)-26-Steelers - Future Hall of Famer
Wow! Wow! Wow! Wow! So I do not even think I will check other positions, as interior line is BY FAR the safest position in the draft, and it is not even close!! There is basically about 1 taken per year in the first round of the draft, and I don't consider any of them to be "busts", there are 7 of them that are/were/will be perennial All-Pro and Pro Browl Players (Faneca, Hutchinson, Mankins, Mangold, Iupati, Ma. Pouncey and Mi. Pouncey), with most of the others having at least one Pro Bowl appearance on their resume. In fact, I would label only Chris Spencer as not living up to expectations, and the notes I have on him (2004 was the first year I really got into the draft) say that he was a reach at #26, and realistically was maybe a second rounder but probably a third rounder.
Because interior linemen are not valued as highly as other positions, it means that only the "Best of the Best"
are taken in the first round, and teams do not "reach/project" as much, and the general consensus is that you can get an impact player in the first and get nearly as good quality player for your interior offensive line in the second and later rounds (which is not entirely true).
The person that asked this question, did so on the basis of whether or not the Cowboys should draft Stanford Guard David DeCastro at #14 if he is available, which looking at this list he would be as no interior lineman has been taken higher than #15 in the last 15 years. I said well I think taking DeCastro would be a "safe pick", as I have seen no glaring weakness in his game and I think he would fit very well in the Cowboys scheme.
So I would not be disappointed if the Cowboys took DeCastro at #14 as the numbers tell me there is about a 93% success rate, and I will go on a limb and say its about 98% if you do not reach for the player. I believe that DeCastro would form one of the best sides of a line in the NFL for at least 10 years if you teamed him with rookie sensation Tyron Smith (Think Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson). While it is not as big a need position as say cornerback or pass rusher, he will be the closest thing to a "Guarantee" in this draft.
I am even going to start picking the best interior lineman in every single draft and calling him the "safest pick in the draft" and I think I will be right 90% of the time. Anytime you get a 10 year starter in the first round, then you are doing good.
Because interior linemen are not valued as highly as other positions, it means that only the "Best of the Best"
are taken in the first round, and teams do not "reach/project" as much, and the general consensus is that you can get an impact player in the first and get nearly as good quality player for your interior offensive line in the second and later rounds (which is not entirely true).
The person that asked this question, did so on the basis of whether or not the Cowboys should draft Stanford Guard David DeCastro at #14 if he is available, which looking at this list he would be as no interior lineman has been taken higher than #15 in the last 15 years. I said well I think taking DeCastro would be a "safe pick", as I have seen no glaring weakness in his game and I think he would fit very well in the Cowboys scheme.
So I would not be disappointed if the Cowboys took DeCastro at #14 as the numbers tell me there is about a 93% success rate, and I will go on a limb and say its about 98% if you do not reach for the player. I believe that DeCastro would form one of the best sides of a line in the NFL for at least 10 years if you teamed him with rookie sensation Tyron Smith (Think Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson). While it is not as big a need position as say cornerback or pass rusher, he will be the closest thing to a "Guarantee" in this draft.
I am even going to start picking the best interior lineman in every single draft and calling him the "safest pick in the draft" and I think I will be right 90% of the time. Anytime you get a 10 year starter in the first round, then you are doing good.
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