Evolution of Defense - Safety

By:  Bobby Shores

About this time last year I wrote an article talking about the next "trend" in Defensive Backs, mainly that we would start seeing "hybrid" style Safety's that could cover wide receiver's, tight ends and running backs one-on-one while still being able to play "in the box". Well one year later and I am going to make a pretty big change to my theory, I believe that we are going to see the safety position on defense go the way of the fullback position on offense, nearly disappear......

The safety position was originally created as a hybrid linebacker/cornerback, a player who was not afraid of contact and had the physical size to be an extra defender in the box to help stop the run, but who was also quick and agile enough to drop back into coverage and patrol a zone, typically to help a cornerback. Of that you had a strong safety who spent more time in the box defending the run and a free safety who spent more time patrolling the deep part of the field playing the ball.

There are multiple reasons I feel the safety is going to start disappearing, but the number one reason is that with the explosion of passing in the NFL not going away, the need for a true safety is diminishing, and the need for two safeties is already in my opinion non-existent. Not only do the rules favor the offense in every aspect, the imposing safety that punishes receivers that dare cross the middle of the field would be banned from the game by Goodell after he "warned" 1 star receiver.

Now the only way to stop offenses, besides pressuring the quarterback (even then there is only a spot the size of a dime that you can hit on the passer without getting flagged, fined and suspended) is to have small quick corners that can literally become a shadow of the receivers, basically teams must have "lock down corners". With that being said, NFL teams are cornerback needy right now, every team needs 3 solid cover guys and 4 is ideal since teams are running most plays with at least 3 wide receivers and often times 4 or 5 players split out wide.

The second biggest reason I see the safety as we know it today disappearing is the lack of athletes that have the skills necessary to play it. I see there being only 2 guys in the NFL currently that can play the position properly, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, and both of them are at the end of their careers not the beginning. Yes you have Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Eric Weddle, Dashon Goldson and a few others but all of them have holes in their game. In fact right now around draft time we are hearing less about safety's than ever before, that it's "not a premium position" and "not a deep Safety class", well I can't remember the last decent safety class. The reason it's not a premium position anymore is because there is nobody out there that can play it properly.

So where have all the safety's gone? My thinking is that with the emphasis being put on offense at all levels of football, especially all the rule changes that favor that side of the ball, that the fast, physical, agile players that are 6'1 and above are being moved to the offensive side of the ball at a young age, the only way that a player with the stature to play safety is kept there is if the can't catch.

This does not mean there is not a place for the guys currently playing safety in the NFL, just that their roles will be changed. I see the majority of them being moved to a nickel linebacker where they will cover tight ends and running backs. Some of the better cover guys could be moved to corner, specifically in zone schemes where the corners are typically a little less athletic, but I think we will start to see teams going to a "single high safety" scheme in the next few years and that is where most of the free safety's will be.

The move away from safety's is just another part of the ever evolving game of football, just like the fullback has largely been replaced with extra tight ends.

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Next DB Trend...Hybrids

The past 5-10 years there have been a lot of trends in the NFL (at least I am noticing them a lot more), lots of passing, 3+ receiver sets and a little bit of the spread game, more teams using 3-4 defense, more versatile tight ends, bigger corners, running back by committees, etc.  I could go on and on, but this article is not about the evolution of the game, I am going to try and focus in on something that has been standing out to me as of late...

The one that has been given a lot of attention as of late is the dynamic safety in the mold of Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed.  The ball hawking safety that can cover the the entire deep portion of the field, that can come up to the line and play the run or effectively blitz, basically the safety that offense's game plan against.  When teams play the Steelers or Ravens I hear a lot of them talk about identifying where #43 and #20 are before the snap just like they would try to identify the "Mike" rusher, of course the place that Reed and Polamalu are pre-snap could be completely different than where they are 1/2 a second after the snap of the ball.  The only problem with this is that I cannot think of one player who is compared to them, at least not after a year or two in the league, these are just unique guys that have a skill set that nobody can duplicate....at least not yet.  I constantly compare players in the draft to current players in the league, but I don't hear of anybody comparing potential DB's to Polamalu or Reed, it is just not there.  But with the safety taking on a more important part (at least in my view) of the defense, now that they are no longer just the "last line of defense", what is the next trend, or what is trending now?  This is not something, I am not proclaiming the identity of the next "revolution", I am just trying to identify what I see going on, and since this is such a weak pure safety class, I thought I would comment on this.

What I have been seeing is the safety/cornerback hybrid.  Sorry if my buildup was unclimatic.  I know that this is not new, but now I am seeing more of a demand for this.  I wrote a sort of similar article about this previously, about the 2nd careers that some corners are going to be able to have (i.e. Champ Bailey, Charles Woodson, Patrick Peterson), the guys that are coming into the league with safety size and pure corner speed, quickness, and ball skills, and while that article is relatable it's not the direction I am going with this.  Here I am looking at how guys that were formerly thought of as "tweeners" are finding or are going to be able to find a spot starting on an NFL team.  Previously we saw where guys that were to small to play linebacker but had good speed were being converted to strong safety (i.e. Roy Williams-former Cowboys safety now Bengals safety), now we will see the opposite as offenses run less and pass more.  It is like the OLB's that were converted from a college defensive end, the guys that can put their hands on the ground and rush, play in space, be solid against the run, and drop back in either zone or man coverage against running backs and tight ends (the best at rushing & coverage is DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys, followed by Lamarr Woodley of the Steelers, and Clay Matthews of the Packers).  Now there is a place for "tweeners" everywhere in the NFL.  Take a look at a guy like Malcom Jenkins, a "shutdown" corner in college, with safety size (if maybe an inch to short at 6'0"), but a step to slow to play CB in the NFL.  I think before this guy would have been a part time safety in the NFL, solid in pass coverage, but a liability against the run, they would have used him in nickel and dime packages and as a special teams ace.  Now I think teams are starting to put a premium on these guys.  With the proliferation of 3+ receiver sets and the tendencies of the spread game that are migrating into the NFL, what better is there to have a converted college cornerback at safety that a team is confident can line up in man coverage on the outside against a teams #2 (possibly #1) WR that will allow the fleeter footed CB to slide inside to cover the quicker slot receiver?  At the same time they have the size and mentality to not be shy taking on a RB coming at them (and this is even less important because teams are not running as much).  To me....Valuable!  This way there is less substitution packages. less running players in and out at the last minute hoping they can get properly lined up, tipping your hand to the offense on what kind of package you are running etc.  In the right scheme these guys could be more dynamic than a Polamalu because I feel Troy is kind of limited in 1-on-1 coverage.

Some of the young guys in the league, or coming into the league with these skill sets are:

-Malcom Jenkins - New Orleans Saints
- Aaron Williams - Texas Longhorns (draft prospect)
- Akwasi Owusu-Ansah & Alan Ball - Dallas Cowboys (I know I cannot believe I am typing this as a Cowboys fan, but I still feel that Ball has some potential if he can learn to read an offense, and AOA is the breed of player this article is talking about)
- Antrel Rolle - New York Giants
- Sean Smith - Miami Dolphins (I know he is a great corner right now, but I don't see it lasting long before he is turned into a corner/safety hybrid, not only because of his 6'3 height, but because his hips are a little tight when going against faster WR's

The first time I noticed where this could go was when I was watching Anthony Henry when he was on the Cowboys.  I saw a huge physical corner who was great for going against the bigger receivers, but I just kept seeing him as the ultimate free safety.  I used to watch the games and say repeatedly until it annoyed everyone around me "Dude needs to be playing free safety!!!"  From what I understood and remember from the time was that he thought he would make more money as a CB than a safety, I just don't think he understood that he could make more money and extend his career as an above average free safety, rather than a part time below average CB.

Is this a trend that will continue?  I think so, and I think we will see more and more "tweeners" becoming stars in the NFL, it is a league that is adapting and starting to see that just because a guy does not have "ideal measurables" does not mean he cannot make an impact.  I think we will start seeing scouts looking more at college production and less at "Underwear Olympics" numbers that do not translate that well to the next level.  Next time I will look at some other "tweeners" or guys that 10 years ago would not have had a chance like:
-Danny Woodhead
-Wes Welker
-London Fletcher (why this guy is continually overlooked I will never understand, he is one of the BEST LB's of his generation)
-Greg Jones (Not in the league yet, but this guy will be a playmaker at the next level, I promise)
-Jim Leonhard
-Trindon Holliday (My 12 year old stepdaughter Bethany loves this guy and swears he will be good)