About this time last year I wrote an article talking about the next "trend" in Defensive Backs, mainly that we would start seeing "hybrid" style Safety's that could cover wide receiver's, tight ends and running backs one-on-one while still being able to play "in the box". Well one year later and I am going to make a pretty big change to my theory, I believe that we are going to see the safety position on defense go the way of the fullback position on offense, nearly disappear......
The safety position was originally created as a hybrid linebacker/cornerback, a player who was not afraid of contact and had the physical size to be an extra defender in the box to help stop the run, but who was also quick and agile enough to drop back into coverage and patrol a zone, typically to help a cornerback. Of that you had a strong safety who spent more time in the box defending the run and a free safety who spent more time patrolling the deep part of the field playing the ball.
There are multiple reasons I feel the safety is going to start disappearing, but the number one reason is that with the explosion of passing in the NFL not going away, the need for a true safety is diminishing, and the need for two safeties is already in my opinion non-existent. Not only do the rules favor the offense in every aspect, the imposing safety that punishes receivers that dare cross the middle of the field would be banned from the game by Goodell after he "warned" 1 star receiver.
Now the only way to stop offenses, besides pressuring the quarterback (even then there is only a spot the size of a dime that you can hit on the passer without getting flagged, fined and suspended) is to have small quick corners that can literally become a shadow of the receivers, basically teams must have "lock down corners". With that being said, NFL teams are cornerback needy right now, every team needs 3 solid cover guys and 4 is ideal since teams are running most plays with at least 3 wide receivers and often times 4 or 5 players split out wide.
The second biggest reason I see the safety as we know it today disappearing is the lack of athletes that have the skills necessary to play it. I see there being only 2 guys in the NFL currently that can play the position properly, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, and both of them are at the end of their careers not the beginning. Yes you have Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Eric Weddle, Dashon Goldson and a few others but all of them have holes in their game. In fact right now around draft time we are hearing less about safety's than ever before, that it's "not a premium position" and "not a deep Safety class", well I can't remember the last decent safety class. The reason it's not a premium position anymore is because there is nobody out there that can play it properly.
So where have all the safety's gone? My thinking is that with the emphasis being put on offense at all levels of football, especially all the rule changes that favor that side of the ball, that the fast, physical, agile players that are 6'1 and above are being moved to the offensive side of the ball at a young age, the only way that a player with the stature to play safety is kept there is if the can't catch.
This does not mean there is not a place for the guys currently playing safety in the NFL, just that their roles will be changed. I see the majority of them being moved to a nickel linebacker where they will cover tight ends and running backs. Some of the better cover guys could be moved to corner, specifically in zone schemes where the corners are typically a little less athletic, but I think we will start to see teams going to a "single high safety" scheme in the next few years and that is where most of the free safety's will be.
The move away from safety's is just another part of the ever evolving game of football, just like the fullback has largely been replaced with extra tight ends.
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