Next DB Trend...Hybrids

The past 5-10 years there have been a lot of trends in the NFL (at least I am noticing them a lot more), lots of passing, 3+ receiver sets and a little bit of the spread game, more teams using 3-4 defense, more versatile tight ends, bigger corners, running back by committees, etc.  I could go on and on, but this article is not about the evolution of the game, I am going to try and focus in on something that has been standing out to me as of late...

The one that has been given a lot of attention as of late is the dynamic safety in the mold of Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed.  The ball hawking safety that can cover the the entire deep portion of the field, that can come up to the line and play the run or effectively blitz, basically the safety that offense's game plan against.  When teams play the Steelers or Ravens I hear a lot of them talk about identifying where #43 and #20 are before the snap just like they would try to identify the "Mike" rusher, of course the place that Reed and Polamalu are pre-snap could be completely different than where they are 1/2 a second after the snap of the ball.  The only problem with this is that I cannot think of one player who is compared to them, at least not after a year or two in the league, these are just unique guys that have a skill set that nobody can duplicate....at least not yet.  I constantly compare players in the draft to current players in the league, but I don't hear of anybody comparing potential DB's to Polamalu or Reed, it is just not there.  But with the safety taking on a more important part (at least in my view) of the defense, now that they are no longer just the "last line of defense", what is the next trend, or what is trending now?  This is not something, I am not proclaiming the identity of the next "revolution", I am just trying to identify what I see going on, and since this is such a weak pure safety class, I thought I would comment on this.

What I have been seeing is the safety/cornerback hybrid.  Sorry if my buildup was unclimatic.  I know that this is not new, but now I am seeing more of a demand for this.  I wrote a sort of similar article about this previously, about the 2nd careers that some corners are going to be able to have (i.e. Champ Bailey, Charles Woodson, Patrick Peterson), the guys that are coming into the league with safety size and pure corner speed, quickness, and ball skills, and while that article is relatable it's not the direction I am going with this.  Here I am looking at how guys that were formerly thought of as "tweeners" are finding or are going to be able to find a spot starting on an NFL team.  Previously we saw where guys that were to small to play linebacker but had good speed were being converted to strong safety (i.e. Roy Williams-former Cowboys safety now Bengals safety), now we will see the opposite as offenses run less and pass more.  It is like the OLB's that were converted from a college defensive end, the guys that can put their hands on the ground and rush, play in space, be solid against the run, and drop back in either zone or man coverage against running backs and tight ends (the best at rushing & coverage is DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys, followed by Lamarr Woodley of the Steelers, and Clay Matthews of the Packers).  Now there is a place for "tweeners" everywhere in the NFL.  Take a look at a guy like Malcom Jenkins, a "shutdown" corner in college, with safety size (if maybe an inch to short at 6'0"), but a step to slow to play CB in the NFL.  I think before this guy would have been a part time safety in the NFL, solid in pass coverage, but a liability against the run, they would have used him in nickel and dime packages and as a special teams ace.  Now I think teams are starting to put a premium on these guys.  With the proliferation of 3+ receiver sets and the tendencies of the spread game that are migrating into the NFL, what better is there to have a converted college cornerback at safety that a team is confident can line up in man coverage on the outside against a teams #2 (possibly #1) WR that will allow the fleeter footed CB to slide inside to cover the quicker slot receiver?  At the same time they have the size and mentality to not be shy taking on a RB coming at them (and this is even less important because teams are not running as much).  To me....Valuable!  This way there is less substitution packages. less running players in and out at the last minute hoping they can get properly lined up, tipping your hand to the offense on what kind of package you are running etc.  In the right scheme these guys could be more dynamic than a Polamalu because I feel Troy is kind of limited in 1-on-1 coverage.

Some of the young guys in the league, or coming into the league with these skill sets are:

-Malcom Jenkins - New Orleans Saints
- Aaron Williams - Texas Longhorns (draft prospect)
- Akwasi Owusu-Ansah & Alan Ball - Dallas Cowboys (I know I cannot believe I am typing this as a Cowboys fan, but I still feel that Ball has some potential if he can learn to read an offense, and AOA is the breed of player this article is talking about)
- Antrel Rolle - New York Giants
- Sean Smith - Miami Dolphins (I know he is a great corner right now, but I don't see it lasting long before he is turned into a corner/safety hybrid, not only because of his 6'3 height, but because his hips are a little tight when going against faster WR's

The first time I noticed where this could go was when I was watching Anthony Henry when he was on the Cowboys.  I saw a huge physical corner who was great for going against the bigger receivers, but I just kept seeing him as the ultimate free safety.  I used to watch the games and say repeatedly until it annoyed everyone around me "Dude needs to be playing free safety!!!"  From what I understood and remember from the time was that he thought he would make more money as a CB than a safety, I just don't think he understood that he could make more money and extend his career as an above average free safety, rather than a part time below average CB.

Is this a trend that will continue?  I think so, and I think we will see more and more "tweeners" becoming stars in the NFL, it is a league that is adapting and starting to see that just because a guy does not have "ideal measurables" does not mean he cannot make an impact.  I think we will start seeing scouts looking more at college production and less at "Underwear Olympics" numbers that do not translate that well to the next level.  Next time I will look at some other "tweeners" or guys that 10 years ago would not have had a chance like:
-Danny Woodhead
-Wes Welker
-London Fletcher (why this guy is continually overlooked I will never understand, he is one of the BEST LB's of his generation)
-Greg Jones (Not in the league yet, but this guy will be a playmaker at the next level, I promise)
-Jim Leonhard
-Trindon Holliday (My 12 year old stepdaughter Bethany loves this guy and swears he will be good)

Packers Cut A.J. Hawk, What Does His Future Hold?

If you look at the Packers linebacking corps, it is a definite strength of their defense.  They have superstar Clay Matthews as their LOLB, former Cowboys 6th round draft pick Eric Walden as their ROLB (Frank Zombo was the starter but he got injured and Walden was surprisingly good in the playoffs but they still might try to upgrade).  At the inside spots they have Desmond Bishop penciled in at one spot and the other spot will either go to A.J. Hawk or Nick Barnett. 

While you are probably thinking "How is A.J. Hawk gonna compete for a starting job when they just cut him?"  Well the reason they cut Hawk was because he was due over $10 million this year in the last year of his rookie contract, and there are not many ILB's in the league worth that much money, especially not A.J. Hawk.  So the decision to release him was strictly based on the economics of it. 

Now the Packers still have Nick Barnett under contract for 2011 at a total cost of about $6 million.  He only played in 4 games last year before breaking his wrist and being placed on injured reserve.  The wrist injury is not going to be a concern going forward, but his contract dollars will be. 

With Desmond Bishop already guaranteed a starting position at one ILB spot, Hawk and Barnett will be battling it out for the other, but they will probably not be battling it out in the way most people would expect, on the football field.  They will most likely be battling it out in the negotiation room.  Both players were drafted in the 1st round (Hawk #6 overall & Barnett #29 overall), about the only noticeable difference between the two is that Hawk is a 27 and Barnett is 29 years old.  I believe that Hawk is a better linebacker, while he has never been the "difference maker"/"high impact" player most teams hope for when they draft a player #6 overall, he has been a steady tackler and I feel he has improved in the last couple of years to be one of the more reliable ILB's around (I know that most people won't agree with me on that but in the games I have seen he plays steady). 

Currently the team is negotiating on a new contract with Hawk and if they can sign him to a decent deal then I believe that Barnett will be shown the door, and since Hawk does not seem to be a player driven by money it would be surprising to see him not come to terms with the Packers before tomorrow at midnight eastern time when the league will shut down.  The Packers are notorious for not overpaying their players, and really even underpaying them, and since they already have Barnett under contract they may really lowball Hawk and then hope Barnett will restructure his deal, basically I do not see them paying much more than their initial offer to Hawk and may try to get him in an incentive laden deal expecting him to only be a backup and then having a way above average LB on the cheap as a backup.

Since I am a diehard Cowboys fan, I believe that A.J. Hawk would be a perfect complement to team with Sean Lee as our ILB's for the future.  Hawk is a smart, instinctive, and somewhat conservative LB (from what I have seen) and would partner up well with the hard charging but over agressive Lee.  And we all know that Bradie James (while a fan favorite and solid tackler) has never been a good fit in the 3-4 scheme and last year I believe we saw the beginning of the end for the productive Cowboys linebacker and we all know that Keith Brooking is all but done unless he is willing to accept a pure backup role.  Also the ILB's were one of the many weaknesses of our defense last year and an area that Roby Ryan is sure to try and upgrade.  Unfortunately the near certain labor stoppage is sure to make a transition harder for any player and team which means that most players will probably stay put on the same teams.  But there is nothing keeping people like me from dreaming.......