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Question: What are the Cowboys options with Anthony Spencer? What do you think they should do?
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| Free Agent OLB Anthony Spencer |
Since being taken in the first round (26th overall) by the Dallas Cowboys in 2007 to be the bookend pass rusher across from DeMarcus Ware, and bring the heat on opposing quarterbacks, Spencer has been largely looked at (by the fans at least) as a bust. He is so unappreciated by the fans that his nickname is "Almost" Anthony Spencer. Which if we are grading him, like a lot of fans/media tend to do, on sacks, then yes he is probably considered a bust as he only has 21.5 career sacks (4.3/year). But I think that sacks are probably the most overrated stat used in football today, if not all of sports.
At the end of 2009, Spencer went on such a tear that he was named to Peter King's All-Pro team, and yes he played outstanding during that stretch, but besides the 1 sack per game, he was doing a lot of the stuff he does on a regular basis like tackles for loss, quarterback pressures and being a disruptive force in general.
To take a broader look at the sack statistic, lets take DeMarcus Ware for instance, basically the best pass rusher in the NFL today year in and year out. This year he was 2nd in the league with 20 sacks, but can you name me one of those sacks that had an impact on a game? Did any of them even change the momentum of a half or even a quarter? No? Yea, me neither, I don't remember any of them being impact plays, in fact the Cowboys were 8-8. Now lets look at Jared Allen, the 2011 NFL Sack Leader with 22 sacks. Can anybody remember those changing a game at all? Me neither, but I do know the Vikings were 3-13 last year, so those sacks didn't change the outcome of many of those games. How about the game against the Bears where he had 3.5 sacks? Yea they lost that one too.
So why hasn't Spencer been real effective in generating sacks? Well for one he comes from the strong side, the left side of the defense (right side of the offense), and since most quarterbacks are right handed they can always see him coming which makes it easier to avoid the sack by dumping the ball off or throwing it away. He is also used in coverage quite a bit more, and teams generally run to the strong side more often than the weak side, which means he takes quite a pounding from the extra tight end, the pulling guard and center, and the lead blocker (fullback), all of their jobs are basically to get a full head of steam and blow the linebacker out of the water.
So now that we understand a little bit more of why he doesn't get a lot of sacks, are there other stats that will more accurately reflect his effectiveness? I am glad you asked because yes there are. Lets first take a look at team stats, where he is one of the leading tacklers on the team, he is also leading the team in forced fumbles with 8. These numbers tell me that not only is he around the ball, A LOT, he is good at getting the ball on the ground, and there is no bigger battle that leads to wins in the NFL than turnovers.
To make sure that we are comparing apples-to-apples, how does he stack up against other 3-4 OLB's in the NFL:
- 1st in total tackles
- 1st (tied) in forced fumbles
- 1st (tied) in tackles for loss
- 2nd in quarterback hurries
- 5th (tied) in sacks
Wow! Looks like Spencer is an impact outside linebacker in the NFL!
So what options do the Cowboys have with Spencer, and how likely are each one to happen?
Sign Him Long Term - This would probably be a good option, if the price was right. While I am not a fan of sack statistics, it is how pass rushers are paid in this league. I do not believe this is much of an option because the Cowboys would have already locked him up if both sides were willing. My gut feeling on this is that there are some teams out there that value him a lot more than the Cowboys do (Stephen Bowen and Chris Canty are other examples), and one of those teams is going to give him a $50 million dollar deal, and it could very well be a 4-3 team that wants him to put his hand on the ground and rush the passer almost all the time. I am sure the Cowboys have come to him with some contract offers, but that they have been in the $5-6 million range, and not the $9 million plus that he will probably get on the open market.
Let Him Walk - I am not a fan of this option for several reasons, even though it seems quite likely to happen. First, I never like to see a high draft pick leave without any compensation in return, which is what will most likely happen if he is allowed to hit the open market on March 13. Mainly though is that right right now we have nobody on our roster to replace him (Cowboys have done a horrible job at grooming replacements in a timely manner the last several years (Darren Woodson, Roy Williams, Andre Gurode, Chris Canty, Stephen Bowen, etc). Victor Butler and Alex Albright (the current OLB backups) are not capable replacements, Butler is nothing but a situational pass rusher whose body is not suited to hold up against the run, and we have not seen anything from Albright in his limited preseason playing time.
Franchise Tag - This is probably the best option, and the option that I feel is most likely to happen. I believe the franchise tag for linebackers will be in the $8-9 million dollar range, and since it is a 1-year deal it should keep him motivated, which has been a problem throughout his career. It will also give the team some flexibility to still possibly trade him; while teams will be able to negotiate with Spencer they will have to sacrifice two 1st round picks, but the Cowboys can and would agree to take less. How much less? I think they would be happy with a low 1st or more likely a 2nd and a 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick.
To pull off this sign-and-trade the Cowboys need to be fairly certain (and that is easy to do even though it is against the rules, it's not like those rules are enforced) that there is a team that will give up picks to ensure that they do not lose him to someone else on the open market. There is also the possibility of rescinding the tag if the Cowboys are able to address the position through a combination of a veteran free agent and a player in the draft to develop. Unfortunately I think that Spencer will sign the tag immediately and fully guarantee that $8+ million salary as it is a log of money and far more than he has ever made before.
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| Free Agent OLB Ahmad Brooks |
In the very likely event that the Cowboys are unable to retain Spencer's services for the 2012 year, the position must be addressed, and not just with a draft pick, as anybody they draft may not be ready to make a significant impact in 2012. So what is my suggestion? Go after a veteran free agent and give him a 2-4 year deal (depending on which one) and then spend a 2nd-or 3rd round pick on a developmental guy.
Potential Draft Picks: Ronnell Lewis (Oklahoma) or Chase Thomas (Stanford)
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