I am going to continue with my off-season priorities today since there is nothing going on besides a bunch of people walking in and out of a building talking about the CBA, boring! Today we are going to focus on the Bengals defense, what is has, and what it needs. The one thing they have, is a great D-Coordinator, Mike Zimmer, the long time Cowboys defensive coach is well respected around the league and has always been successful. If he can get the right mix of players, and keep them healthy (I am talking to you Odom) then the defense should be back to its 2009 form.
Defensive Line - Many so called "NFL Experts" have defensive end as a major position of need, but I do not see it that way. They have a budding star in Carlos Dunlap. Dunlap and fellow young DE Michael Johnson have similar resumes, both are athletic freaks who fell in the draft due to a reputation for taking plays off and not working that hard, if the Bengals can get these 2 guys to reach their potential then they should be able to not only generate solid QB pressure but also provide the Bengals with depth at the position. The other ends (Robert Geathers and Victor Adeyanju) are just average and do nothing but provide added depth, and I think that Geathers will be released. They also have Frostee Rucker who should provide some valuable depth and need to make a move to get John Fanene (sack leader previous season) back under contract. With this being such a deep draft at the defensive line position do not be surprised if the Bengals draft someone in case Dunlap and Johnson do not live up to their potential. I could see them targeting someone like Texas's Sam Acho, a guy who is a born leader and example setter who runs with a high motor that could help motivate the underachievers.
The other position along the defensive line is defensive tackle. Peko and Sims, the 2 starting defensive tackles are both good players at the point of attack. Peko is one of those high motor guys that never stops hustling, and with his size can take on double teams with ease. Sims is learning and has become more of a disruptor at the interior position, he gets off the ball well but needs to work on his mechanics. I do not see defensive tackle as a need that they will address in the draft, they have some depth at the position with a few other young players.
Linebacker - This is another position of strength the Bengals have. They have spent a few early draft picks lately on some USC linebackers that head the LB position in Keith Rivers and Rey Maulaga. Rivers is on his way to becoming an elite LB and can play at any LB position the Bengals ask. Maulaga had a bad 2010 season and was recently ripped by Zimmer for not paying attention to detail. They drafted Rey with the intention of him taking over the MLB spot from Dhani Jones this year, his all out style is better suited for playing the sideline-to-sideline MLB in the 4-3. Rey just needs to learn to play within the system and control his all out, over aggressive style to find a comfortable middle ground. If they move him to the middle he will have to be the leader of the defense, hopefully he picked up the traits and habits of Jones who is a very well respected veteran in Cincinnati.
For the LB corp the main problem was giving up to much in the run game, where it ranked 19th. Veteran Dhani Jones is going to be a free agent and will most likely not be asked to return. I believe they need to find a LB in the draft that is good at playing the run, possibly a team captain in college in case moving Rey to the middle does not work out. Some prospects to keep your eye on for them are:
-Mark Herzlich - Boston College LB who overcame a rare form of bone cancer in 2009 and has regained much of his top form. Prior to his cancer he was considered a potential 1st round pick, but after some disappointing combine numbers his stock could fall to the 3rd or 4th round where the Bengals would be wise to snatch him up, of course I would not be surprised if he is grabbed in the 2nd round... Herzlich is a technically sound player, especially when tackling. He plays with an extremely high motor never giving up on plays and is one of those guys who genuinely love to play football. Some scouts seem to have him listed as a 3-4 OLB but I think he would fit well in the Bengals scheme, either as the SAM backer or the MLB.
-Mario Harvey - Marshall LB who recorded 419 tackles, 20 sacks, & 5 force fumbles in his collegiate career. His ability to get off blocks with his free shoulder makes him an ideal fit for a 4-3 OLB and his prowess for stopping the run make him a good fit for the Bengals.
Secondary - In my opinion the Bengals have the best young starting CB tandem in the NFL with Leon hall and Johnathan Joseph. The only problem is that Joseph is a free agent, the Bengals MUST make re-signing him a priority the moment a new CBA is signed. For the nickel corner position I believe that Adam Jones (who seems to have settled down off-field) is still a solid CB, he was having a great year last year before being injured and placed on IR. While Jones wants to be a starter (possible if Joseph is not re-signed) I think he will be a great value CB for the 3rd corner/nickel role. They may also have the chance to draft Patrick Peterson at #4 (if they don't go for a WR or QB) and let Joseph walk. My opinion is to re-sign Joseph and have him and Hall continue making plays on the outside, then let Adam Jones/Jonathan Wade/Morgan Trent battle for the remaining nickel and dime role. They should have plenty of depth at the CB position if they can stay healthy this year, drafting a project CB in the late rounds such as: Buster Skrine - Tennessee Chattanooga (fastest man at the combine, good in run support, needs work on technical aspects), Marcus Gilchrist - Clemson (versatile player who could line up at corner or safety), and Kendrick Burney - North Carolina (displayed poor 40 times, but grades out well on film and played solid at the Senior Bowl, remember I value college production over running a straight line in your underwear any day).
Safety remains a primary concern for the Bengals with starting strong safety Roy Williams (liability in coverage) and his backup Chinedum Ndukwe both free agents. While Williams is a liability in coverage, the Bengals should be able to get him on the cheap and get a project strong safety to start developing. Ndukwe is a good special teams player, but may think he can be a bigger contributor for another team and they may be unable to retain him. At the free safety spot Reggie Nelson appeared to play well in the final month of the season, and the team will have to decide if he can continue that into next year. I think he can and he will finally live up to his 1st round draft potential. While this safety class is weak this year, they may want to look in the later rounds at drafting a project like Will Hill Safety from Florida, he is a guy that I think will be a good safety with some film study to help him recognize plays and can contribute immediately on special teams.
Overall I think the Bengals defense should have a rebound year and surprise everyone in 2011 (if there is football in 2011), they do not have to many holes that need to be filled immediately and their main key is retaining Johnathan Joseph.
Up next: I will start my off-season review of the Indianapolis Colts, and again I will try to keep it shorter than this one.....
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Sunday, March 6, 2011
1st Pick of the Draft , Cam Newton?
Well I was planning on writing my first "Recliner QB Book Review" today, but since I cannot find the book right now (stupid painkillers make me forget where I put things, but they also make me feel really good so I can't complain to much) to review some of my notes and key points, I have decided to switch gears.
Right now there is a lot of talk about the Panthers taking Cam Newton #1, the first notice I saw of it was a tweet by @EvanSilva saying that this is the weekend that everybody moves Cam Newton to the top of their mock drafts. Me....I just don't get it. As I have previously stated in my other posts, why make him (or any QB in this draft) the #1 pick and the highest paid QB in league history IF there are questions (and their are big questions on all the QB's out there). Why potentially set your franchise back 5+ years? Yes, I understand that he could be a "one-in-a-generation" player, but you have to weigh the risk vs reward here. While many so called "draft experts" label Cam as a better, more accurate, slightly more athletic Vince Young (I think they only make that comparison because people seem to compare all black QB's to each other and all white RB's to each other) I see him as a more athletic Ben Roethlisberger. They are both big and hard to bring down, can make throws on the run, with the big difference is Roethlisberger was considered a solid drop back passer while Cam is not. For me, the biggest knocks on Cam are his ability to read defenses and call appropriate audibles, master the NFL playbook, go through his progressions, and seeing the whole field. Those are fairly big on field concerns for a guy being labeled as a potential top 10 pick; much less a #1 overall pick.
Now onto the other concerns I have about the kid. We all know about his dad trying to sell him to the highest bidder, while that may not necessarily reflect poorly on Cam, the fact that his dad is the leader of his entourage and seemingly involved in every single decision he makes is troubling. How many people are going to have influence over him at the next level, influence that will take precedence over what his coaches, teammates, and trainers say? That is what truly concerns me, that he will bring his own "support system" with him and not rely on the ones that the NFL can provide that have been proven to work, with all the controversy surrounding him throughout his college career it is obvious his current "support system" has failed miserably. Many people bring up his time at Florida as a "red flag" on his college career, but me, I am not holding that against him. I think that we all make numerous mistakes between the ages of 16-20. I know I did, the main difference between Cam Newton and myself (along with thousands of other teenagers) is that because he was in the spotlight his mistakes were highlighted, amplified, and he got caught. I know that if I had gotten caught in hundreds of the stuff I did, I would have been labeled as a "bad, troubled, horrible kid". Luckily for me I outgrew those younger testosterone, bulletproof days; and have grown into a respectable (at least in my opinion) and productive member of society. I would have hated to see how bad I would have acted at his age if I would have had everything handed to me on a silver platter, been told that I was untouchable, the next "big" thing in a major college sports program.
So really, Cam Newton has huge potential upside at the next level, but he also has some of the biggest risks associated with any QB or really any draft prospect also. Do I think that he deserves to fall to the middle rounds, no. Do I think that his potential is worthy of a top 15 pick, no (this isn't the NBA, even though I feel some teams draft like it is). I think that any team considering him needs to heavily evaluate not only Cam's years at Blinn Junior College, but also his year at Auburn, and do not look to far back because we all made mistakes at a young age, lets not hold his teenage years against him, we all made stupid mistakes. In fact, lets take this time to not "pigeon hole" anybody that you know (kid, friend, employee, student, young adult, niece nephew, grandchild, yourself, etc) because of mistakes that they may have made when they were younger (or are making now), as a society we should strive to give everybody the same 2nd chances that we give athletes (i.e. Donte Stallworth, Michael Vick, Leonard Little, Ben Roethlisberger, etc). And most importantly Cam needs to be evaluated on what he has done on the field, and how dedicated will he be to fix his flaws and not try to rely on his God given athletic skills only at the NFL level.
FYI I think that teams that should be looking at him are teams that have a QB for the next 1-2 years and have time to develop him (of course stashing a 1st round pick on your roster for 1-3 years goes against the potential short term 1st round contracts I talked about in an earlier post on rookie wage scale)
Teams that initially come to mind are: Cincinnati Bengals (if Carson Palmer can be talked into coming back for 1 or more years), Seattle Seahawks (if Matt Hasselback is resigned), Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Washington Redskins. But with those teams you need to have a good veteran QB for him to learn from, a solid coaching staff, and a good steady front office (so that obviously that nixes a few of the teams I have listed).
Right now there is a lot of talk about the Panthers taking Cam Newton #1, the first notice I saw of it was a tweet by @EvanSilva saying that this is the weekend that everybody moves Cam Newton to the top of their mock drafts. Me....I just don't get it. As I have previously stated in my other posts, why make him (or any QB in this draft) the #1 pick and the highest paid QB in league history IF there are questions (and their are big questions on all the QB's out there). Why potentially set your franchise back 5+ years? Yes, I understand that he could be a "one-in-a-generation" player, but you have to weigh the risk vs reward here. While many so called "draft experts" label Cam as a better, more accurate, slightly more athletic Vince Young (I think they only make that comparison because people seem to compare all black QB's to each other and all white RB's to each other) I see him as a more athletic Ben Roethlisberger. They are both big and hard to bring down, can make throws on the run, with the big difference is Roethlisberger was considered a solid drop back passer while Cam is not. For me, the biggest knocks on Cam are his ability to read defenses and call appropriate audibles, master the NFL playbook, go through his progressions, and seeing the whole field. Those are fairly big on field concerns for a guy being labeled as a potential top 10 pick; much less a #1 overall pick.
Now onto the other concerns I have about the kid. We all know about his dad trying to sell him to the highest bidder, while that may not necessarily reflect poorly on Cam, the fact that his dad is the leader of his entourage and seemingly involved in every single decision he makes is troubling. How many people are going to have influence over him at the next level, influence that will take precedence over what his coaches, teammates, and trainers say? That is what truly concerns me, that he will bring his own "support system" with him and not rely on the ones that the NFL can provide that have been proven to work, with all the controversy surrounding him throughout his college career it is obvious his current "support system" has failed miserably. Many people bring up his time at Florida as a "red flag" on his college career, but me, I am not holding that against him. I think that we all make numerous mistakes between the ages of 16-20. I know I did, the main difference between Cam Newton and myself (along with thousands of other teenagers) is that because he was in the spotlight his mistakes were highlighted, amplified, and he got caught. I know that if I had gotten caught in hundreds of the stuff I did, I would have been labeled as a "bad, troubled, horrible kid". Luckily for me I outgrew those younger testosterone, bulletproof days; and have grown into a respectable (at least in my opinion) and productive member of society. I would have hated to see how bad I would have acted at his age if I would have had everything handed to me on a silver platter, been told that I was untouchable, the next "big" thing in a major college sports program.
So really, Cam Newton has huge potential upside at the next level, but he also has some of the biggest risks associated with any QB or really any draft prospect also. Do I think that he deserves to fall to the middle rounds, no. Do I think that his potential is worthy of a top 15 pick, no (this isn't the NBA, even though I feel some teams draft like it is). I think that any team considering him needs to heavily evaluate not only Cam's years at Blinn Junior College, but also his year at Auburn, and do not look to far back because we all made mistakes at a young age, lets not hold his teenage years against him, we all made stupid mistakes. In fact, lets take this time to not "pigeon hole" anybody that you know (kid, friend, employee, student, young adult, niece nephew, grandchild, yourself, etc) because of mistakes that they may have made when they were younger (or are making now), as a society we should strive to give everybody the same 2nd chances that we give athletes (i.e. Donte Stallworth, Michael Vick, Leonard Little, Ben Roethlisberger, etc). And most importantly Cam needs to be evaluated on what he has done on the field, and how dedicated will he be to fix his flaws and not try to rely on his God given athletic skills only at the NFL level.
FYI I think that teams that should be looking at him are teams that have a QB for the next 1-2 years and have time to develop him (of course stashing a 1st round pick on your roster for 1-3 years goes against the potential short term 1st round contracts I talked about in an earlier post on rookie wage scale)
Teams that initially come to mind are: Cincinnati Bengals (if Carson Palmer can be talked into coming back for 1 or more years), Seattle Seahawks (if Matt Hasselback is resigned), Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Washington Redskins. But with those teams you need to have a good veteran QB for him to learn from, a solid coaching staff, and a good steady front office (so that obviously that nixes a few of the teams I have listed).
Friday, March 4, 2011
Next Drafting Revolution
In my previous post I talked about why teams wouldn't take Patrick Peterson #1 overall, even though I think he is deserving of the spot. Now I will address how that can and will change in the future.
We all know that one of the hot button issues is a rookie wage scale or rooking slotting process much like the NBA has. This will keep unproven players from collecting tens of millions of dollars before they even play a down or compete in a practice in the NFL. I can go through and name a bunch of big busts, but everyone should already be familiar with them. The other problem the financial windfall that top 10 picks receive is that teams will stack the top of their draft board based on it (possibly subconsciously). Many teams year in and year out claim that they draft the "best available player" and not draft for need, which they may very well do it in the bottom half of the first round and beyond, but typically in the top half of the first round they are gunning for the "home run" pick. I am not going to get into examples of this or this post will end up to long. In the past 10 drafts a QB has been taken #1 overall 80% of the time, and of the 8 QB's selected 5 of them were not the savior of the franchise that drafted them (I am counting Eli Manning as a success even though he was traded on draft day). So we know that QB's are typically taken #1, the only exception to the "home run" type pick is that teams draft LT's very high because they are protecting the face and savior of the franchise. Now why are they doing that when it seems that #1 QB's have a high wash out rate? Teams know that as soon as they draft a player in the Top 5, that player is going to become the highest paid player in the league at his position before he does anything to deserve it.
How can teams change that mentality at drafting? I believe that the rookie wage scale will help change that mentality. Will it eliminate it? No, because there is such a premium put on drafting a QB that teams will still invariably reach for them. But with a rookie wage scale that locks players into slightly shorter deals and a lot less money, teams will be much more likely to draft the best player available because the committed dollars will not be as high. The other benefit to a rookie wage scale is that their will be a lot more movement at the top of the draft, currently a top 5 pick is as much a burden as it is a reward because if a team picks wrong, it can set their franchise back 5-6 years because of the financial and salary cap impact that pick has. But without the outrageous guaranteed money, teams will be much more willing to jump into the top 5 and pick a Patrick Peterson because that team desperately needs a DB and he is the best player in the draft, that team may see him as the missing piece to making a Super Bowl run. And a team with the #1 overall pick like Carolina that has many needs will jump at the opportunity to stockpile more picks because they need multiple players to turn their franchise around. The benefit to the veterans in the league is that their would be less money wasted on players that wash out of the league during or after their rookie contract so more money for them. The benefit for rookies (besides the top 5) is that the contracts would be shorter so players could cash in on that 2nd big contract worth big money if they outplayed their rookie deal. The rookie wage scale would be better for teams, players, and fans, and it would make the draft value chart made popular by the Cowboys in the early 90's relevant again.
We all know that one of the hot button issues is a rookie wage scale or rooking slotting process much like the NBA has. This will keep unproven players from collecting tens of millions of dollars before they even play a down or compete in a practice in the NFL. I can go through and name a bunch of big busts, but everyone should already be familiar with them. The other problem the financial windfall that top 10 picks receive is that teams will stack the top of their draft board based on it (possibly subconsciously). Many teams year in and year out claim that they draft the "best available player" and not draft for need, which they may very well do it in the bottom half of the first round and beyond, but typically in the top half of the first round they are gunning for the "home run" pick. I am not going to get into examples of this or this post will end up to long. In the past 10 drafts a QB has been taken #1 overall 80% of the time, and of the 8 QB's selected 5 of them were not the savior of the franchise that drafted them (I am counting Eli Manning as a success even though he was traded on draft day). So we know that QB's are typically taken #1, the only exception to the "home run" type pick is that teams draft LT's very high because they are protecting the face and savior of the franchise. Now why are they doing that when it seems that #1 QB's have a high wash out rate? Teams know that as soon as they draft a player in the Top 5, that player is going to become the highest paid player in the league at his position before he does anything to deserve it.
How can teams change that mentality at drafting? I believe that the rookie wage scale will help change that mentality. Will it eliminate it? No, because there is such a premium put on drafting a QB that teams will still invariably reach for them. But with a rookie wage scale that locks players into slightly shorter deals and a lot less money, teams will be much more likely to draft the best player available because the committed dollars will not be as high. The other benefit to a rookie wage scale is that their will be a lot more movement at the top of the draft, currently a top 5 pick is as much a burden as it is a reward because if a team picks wrong, it can set their franchise back 5-6 years because of the financial and salary cap impact that pick has. But without the outrageous guaranteed money, teams will be much more willing to jump into the top 5 and pick a Patrick Peterson because that team desperately needs a DB and he is the best player in the draft, that team may see him as the missing piece to making a Super Bowl run. And a team with the #1 overall pick like Carolina that has many needs will jump at the opportunity to stockpile more picks because they need multiple players to turn their franchise around. The benefit to the veterans in the league is that their would be less money wasted on players that wash out of the league during or after their rookie contract so more money for them. The benefit for rookies (besides the top 5) is that the contracts would be shorter so players could cash in on that 2nd big contract worth big money if they outplayed their rookie deal. The rookie wage scale would be better for teams, players, and fans, and it would make the draft value chart made popular by the Cowboys in the early 90's relevant again.
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