Welcome back to the show that never ends! What have we learned after four weeks of doing this thing here? Well, mostly that in
the category of 'Apt Prognostication' I might as well flip coins, but isn't the true value in any journey the getting there?
Slight modification this week....our noble and intrepid fantasy guru here at ReclinerQB.com, Zach, is taking a cue from the vaunted Miami Dolphins and entering a bye week of his own, and most possibly nursing a hamstring injury and trying out a host of fourth-tier quarterbacks to take over the helm of mowing his lawn and cleaning up the paint in the garage for the rest of the season. Being a noble team-player, I've volunteered to incorporate this week's Fantasy Go and No into the preview. If we faithfully transmute my brief history at picking games into this new endeavor , then rest assured that following my carefully reasoned fantasy logic will assure you of great victory! Provided you incorporate one additional step, naturally, but I think that goes without saying. Let's hit it!
Saints @ Panthers - The wily vet v. the hot-hand rookie, right? Here's what we know: Cam Newton is playing about 57 times better than anyone anticipated, whilst the Saints still hit the field about how we expected, which is usually enough to dismantle your average run-of-the-mill team. But this is a division game! SWEEP THE LEG, CAMMY!
The Fulcrum Point: Homefield. Yeah, I know that sounds ridiculous and trite, but both these defenses are sitting square in the middle of the pack in overall ranking. The Panthers are surprisingly good against the pass.....or perhaps more accurately, they are 'a collection of subway turnstiles against the run'. Regardless, sometimes this is a game of emotion, and if Newton can lead the Panthers to a home base win over division nemesis (can I use the word 'nemesis' if there hasn't been much 'fighting back' for half a decade? Eh, it'll do.), it will endear him to the fans forever - and it will be the highlight of the year for this squad.
The Win Goes To: The Panthers - yep, I'm coming out swinging early this week. I should lay off the caffeine in the morning. And the cake. I think the sugar affects me.
Fantasy Go and No: On the Panthers, I'd stick Greg Olson in this week if you're lacking a top 5 TE - Shockey is still hobbly, and Olson seems to get more end zone looks - I'd be sitting DeAngelo Williams both this week and for the rest of forever from the looks of things, at least he'll retire healthy. Saints side: This is the week the Mark Ingram gambit you made will pay dividends, so put him in a flex, or even your RB2 spot. They'll still divvy up the carries, but I like Ingram's bull-rush against these fellas. A big 'No Thanks' to Marques Colston just coming back against a snappy secondary.
Eagles @ Bills - Good lord, this should be interesting, if nothing else. On the one hand, there's this one team that has needed to buy new sheets every Sunday, on on the other hand there's this other really entertaining and dangerous team that for whatever reason decided to dress up like the Buffalo Bills for the season.
The Fulcrum Point: Make no mistake about it: The Bills still have a bad bad defense. 27th overall, in the bottom third in both your major 'can we stop anything' categories. That's going to kill them this week with the 'we hate you just a little bit more than we hate ourselves' Eagles. Barring another early exit for Mikey V, Philadelphia is going to take out some anger on Buffalo in a valiant attempt to shake their new rep of being The East Coast Vikings.
The Win Goes To: Philadelphia, but they'll barely hang onto it in the fourth.
Fantasy Go and No: For the Eagles, play the guys you would normally play, and then add Jeremy Maclin, basically a non-factor so far this year, into your WR2 or flex spot. He feels due. Sit the Eagles defense, they're going to give up some serious points. On the Bills side, it's a good week for Scott Chandler at the TE spot, but I'd go nowhere near any of the Bills running backs, despite his early season success, I see Fred Jackson topping out at maybe sixty yards. The Bills are going to need to pass this week, early and often.
The MIGHTY CHEEEFS @ The Not-Quite-Completely-Dead Colts - Let's start with an accolade: Congrats Kansas City! You managed to put away a team that couldn't finish 'Making a Snack' if you spotted them a bowl of dip and an unopened bag of chips. And all it cost you was a bunch of emerging turmoil between your under-performing coach and your under-performing quarterback. Well worth it.
The Fulcrum Point: The Curtis Painter Era is upon us! REPENT ALL YE SINNERS! Dude played better than Collins has to date, maybe that could have been 'Plan A', but who's keeping track anyway? Not that Painter was phenomenal, but Pierre Garcon suddenly awoke to realize that he'd like a fat contract in the off-season, and I look to his play to continue to be motivated.
The Win Goes To: The Colts! They fought it out hard against the Bucs, and the Bucs are much better than the KC First Round QB Picks.
Fantasy Go and No: On the Colts, you're going to play Wayne regardless, but it's well worth the risk to throw Garcon into the #2 spot (this week, at least), and this is one of the only good weeks to let Joey Addai sniff your starting lineup. 'No' to Painter and the rest of the crew, and that includes Dallas Clark. From the Chief side....I don't hate the idea of putting Breaston in a flex (again, if you have Bowe, you're playing him...this is the last of the obvious that I'm going to mention). In a 34 team league starting 3 RBs and a flex, Dexter McCluster is a locked-and-loaded start of the week.
Bengals @ Jacksonville - To quote the masterpiece Fletch Lives: 'It takes a big man to admit when he's wrong; I am not a big man'. But, the Bengals have turned out to be a pretty scrappy crew this year, and while I still think they're a better team in the long run without Cedric, he's serving his purpose before he serves his time. Jacksonville seems to have quite a bit of pluck in them as well, too bad nobody is ever going to see it live. They should really get a home stadium, you know?
The Fulcrum Point: Blaine Gabbert. It was a mistake to cut David Garrard only to have to rush Gabbert onto the field. He may inevitably turn out to be decent, but there was no need for him to even touch the paint until Garrard's inevitable Week 10 injury. Give these things their natural lifespan, kids.
The Win Goes To: The Cincinnati Men's Correctional Facility
Fantasy Go and No: Kind of a gimme, but Jermaine Gresham is on the cusp of being a solid starting fantasy TE. Note, I said 'cusp'. And AJ Green is now a must-play, and before you shout 'OBVIOUS', please note that I'm mentioning him specifically because I would like everyone to get on board with a nickname for him that cropped up over at The Fantasy Football Guys forums. Because that moniker is perfectly awesome. But the real 'go' here is the Cincinnati Defense, I'd go all in on them this week. They're the number one D in the league in Total Yards Given Up. Right? That feels like a lie, but it isn't! I'd sit Cedric, I don't think he's doing anything spectacular this week. On the Jacksonville side, I don't care for anybody. Aside from the obvious one, that one you don't sit.
Seahawks @ Giants - An old friend of mine and Seattle denizen - let's call her 'Sara', because that's her name - sent me a terse but loving message last week asking why I don't give the Seahawks some love. My answer was simple: I don't believe Tavaris Jackson is an NFL caliber quarterback. I've seen him live and in person on two separate occasions, and based on that data my mind is not likely to change on this matter. But she's right, I can't judge a whole book by it's horrible main plot thread. Further, Mike Vick has proven me wrong in recent memory by suddenly learning to play his position after many a year of 'not bothering', so maybe there is hope.
But Sara, I will tell you this: I do like me some Sidney Rice, and will always love the Beast. Maybe he's never going to quite consistently reach that Earl Campbell/Steven Jackson level of brutal that he's certainly capable of,but it's going to still show up from time to time.
The Giants on the other hand are just hitting me as 'meh' this year. Kinda good, kinda bad, kinda don't really care. Sorta my feeling about the entirety of Eli Manning's career.
The Fulcrum Point: Defense - of which, the Seahawks have the slightly better one as of this moment. This will be one of those 'whoever capitalizes on El--uh, Tava---uh, the inevitable interceptions is going to win'.
The Win Goes To: Seahawks. Now Sara, can you see what you can do about hooking me up with some of that sweet Gates Foundation money? That stuff's just sitting around in bags on the street up there, isn't it?
Fantasy Go and No: He's done little up to this point in the season, but I think Marshawn Lynch just pounds on the 21st-ranked Giants Run D. I'd be sitting everyone else aside from Rice. On the Giants side, absolutely run Nicks and Cruz out onto the field, but avoid Ahmad Bradshaw. If you had to choose between Jackson and Manning because they're your two quarterbacks, I'd go ahead and pull the trigger on Andy Dalton. And also, start prepping for your 2012 draft now, because you need the work.
Titans @ Steelers - I've retired the CJ2K Ticker, because he finally put up a decent game against a decent defense. It may return. Tennessee has been over-performing this year, and the Steelers have not. To the point that they pulled a couple of used parts out of the scrapyard in an attempt to stop the karma assault that Rothlisberger has had coming to him for years.
The Fulcrum Point: Matt Hasselbeck. His continued health is critical to any success the Titans continue to have this year - he's always been a pretty smart dude, and he's being protected this year. Novel concept.
The Win Goes To: The Titans. Mostly because they don't look really old every week.
Fantasy Go and No: Hasselbeck's there if you need him, and I like the year-to-date. Don't bother with Nate Washington, If he was able to replace Britt, he would've when Britt was getting arrested all those times. On the Steelers' front - Rashard's gonna play, he says, so that could screw up the Isaac Redman move for this week, but I doubt it. Don't really like either against the Titans, maybe in a push where you need a second guy. I don't really care for any of the Steelers this week - if you've got Wallace, you have to play him, but I'd sit Ben in an instant, so what's that say about my belief in their passing game?
Raiders @ Texans - I will not, under any circumstance, pick against a decent team on a week upon whom emotional impact has weighed a heavy hammer. Today's passing of Al Davis is about as heavy a hammer as you're going to swing on a team. While he may have seemed half-nuts over the last decade, that guy LOVED his team and it's fans like no other, and was the last true old-school owner standing.
The Fulcrum Point: The above said, I still was leaning against the Texans in this showdown, because the loss of Andre Johnson, albeit temporary, is a much more devastating blow to that team than all three of their RBs sharing one hamstring. Simply, Schaub needs Andre like Stafford needs Calvin. Six Jacoby Jones's glued together and given a bag of steroids and mescaline still couldn't impact a game's outcome half as much as Andre. Hell, one Jacoby Jones can't even beat out Kevin Walter for the flanker spot EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
The Win Goes To: The Oakland Raiders. Just win, baby.
Fantasy Go and No: I'm all in on Raiders this week, except the TE slot. Ford and Moore and Heyward-Bey are WR3 guys still, but I'd run any of them in the flex or 3 spot if needed. On the Texans side, I'd be sitting Schaub for this week at least. Ouside of Arian, I don't see anybody else as a 'must go' until we see how things shake out in Post-Andre Week One.
Buccaneers @ 49ers - A battle of the 'slightly above averages'. This one is a coin flipper from the jump.
The Fulcrum Point: Coaching. Pretty even match-ups abound here - Frank Gore showed last week why you play your big guns whenever they are actually playing, and LeGarette Blount continues to grow as a punisher. Both the guys with the fancy playbooks are pretty sharp here, so it's really going to come down to who put the better gameplan together coming into the day.
The Win Goes To: the 49ers
Fantasy Go and No: Run with Vernon Davis this week, sit Michael Crabtree. I don't care for that fellow one bit. On the Tampa Bay side, I'd sit Winslow in favor of anybody else - hate him against this D. But start working Preston Parker in there - if you've got Dez Bryant or Anquan Boldin on the bye, consider giving Parker a one-week audition. He's got the rapport with Freeman, and he's still underneath the radar enough. Now, don't expect Dez Bryant numbers out of him, but expect better than Boldin's given you this year. In fact, screw you Boldin. Next year I'm letting you drop to the ninth round.
Cardinals @ Vikings - The Cardinals are going to win this game.
The Fulcrum Point: The Cardinals are going to win this game.
The Win Goes To: The Cardinals are going to win this game.
Fantasy Go and No: Go: Cardinals. Any of them (well, the important ones at least). No: Vikings. Except for that one awesome Viking.
Jets @ Patriots - Oooh!!! A grudge match! These two teams don't like each other, no sirree, and the big dumb-looking weirdo coach on the one side is sure talking tough about how they sure are going to git at that different-kind-of-crazy-like-the-kind-where-his-adult-children-don't-talk-to-him coach on the other side, and there's gonna be a-fussin' and a-fuedin'! WHOO-EE!
The Fulcrum Point: Tom Brady. Mark Sanchez. Advantage: New England
The Win Goes To: The Patriots. By a lot.
Fantasy Go and No: Eff it, I'll say it- this is the week you need to play Chad Ochocinco. He's done a whole lot of nothing since arriving in the Boston area, aside from serve as a giant distraction to open up Welker and Branch. Nobody aside from Favre and Rodgers can make a guy go from 'unimportant' to 'superstar' in one week like Tom Brady - and I have all the faith in the world that Beli would love to tear up Rex with a guy who everyone has considered an abject failure since his arrival, 'specially with Cromartie and Revis not worrying him this week. Also 'play Stevan Ridley' (because that's what Zach would want you to do). No to: Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Welcome to your 'rotating out' phase. On the Jets side: 'Go' with Shonn Green and/or LT in an RB2 or flex spot. One thing I like about Rex Ryan: he's not subtle. When he says they're going to get back to running, that's what they're going to do, come hell or high water. And then they'll be down by 21. BIG NO: Mark Sanchez. Unless you're in a weird league that gives your QB bonus points for interceptions and blatant on-field frustration.
Chargers @ Broncos - I can't help but feel like the Broncos should be better than they are. Part of this issue seems to lie in their refusal to play any type of 'pass coverage'. Enter Champ Bailey. Will that be enough of an attitude changer to turn things around for the hapless Denver Ponies? Probably not, maybe they can put Tebow back at corner, since the greater Denver area seems to be convinced he actually IS Jesus.
The Fulcrum Point: As aforementioned, the Broncos need to shore up their pass coverage, stat. That happens, they can compete in this game. To their advantage, the Chargers don't have quite the arsenal as Green Bay did last week, and much less so without Gates and his dead foot. To their disadvantage, the Chargers still have V-Jax wired into Rivers' headspace.
The Win Goes To: To hell with it, I already picked the Panthers over the Saints....WE'RE GOING WITH DENVER!!! Yes, I mean that. Outside of pass D, these guys line up pretty evenly against each other, and Denver has an extra special weapon....
Fantasy Go and No: You should be starting Eric Decker every week. Period. Dude plays lights out every time he's on the field, and will save Orton's job. You should not be starting Noshow Moreno for the foreseeable future....I would run McGahee out there in my 2nd RB spot in a pinch though.
Packers @ Falcons - Talk all you want, but these aren't the Falcons that were in the playoffs last year, not even close. They're getting better, you betcha, but they aren't that team. These aren't the Packers that played them then, either; this version is better.
The Fulcrum Point: Rodgers might eat a bad seafood dish the night before the game, and in that case, he may be limited to 290 and 2 scores. I honestly see the Packers coming at Atlanta early with a controlled 1-2 of Grant and Starks again, just to see what crops up. And if the answer to that is 'not much', then Rodgers is just going to start heaving it out to whoever. And then they'll score.
The Win Goes To: Green Bay
Fantasy Go and No: On the GB side, your probably thinking about playing whoever you've got. Good thinking, unless you're looking at Driver and James Jones who are quickly getting lost. Might sit the D, I suspect Atlanta is going to get a few on them in a vain attempt at 'competing'. For the Falcons - TONY GONZALEZ IS A MUST-PLAY. Green Bay STILL doesn't cover TEs across the middle, and Tony, wearing down as he is, can work that to his advantage. I'm thinking 70+ and a score. No: Michael Turner will accomplish little this week, and they'll be averting from the run early.
Bears @ Lions - Finally a terrific MNF on ESPN game....I mean that. This should be a tremendous fistfight from start to controversial finish.
The Fulcrum Point: Remember that catch-that-wasn't over there? Calvin Johnson still does.
The Win Goes To: In all seriousness here, I could see this going either way...the Bears aren't giving up this year and NEED this win. The Lions are giving up even less than that. They may not need the win, but they sure do want it. LIONS VICTORIOUS!
Fantasy Go and No: If they've got a name-brand, and they're in this game, get them in yours. This'll be high scoring...with notable exceptions: I still wouldn't touch a Bears receiver in a fantasy lineup for the life of me...save for Dane Sanzenbacher, who doesn't do anything but catch touchdowns. Good for the flex. And I'm sitting Brandon Pettigrew for the remainder of the year until somebody can explain to me why he was supposed to be a big deal this year. Burleson is another nice flex guy this week.
That's it, kids. Just win, baby!
If you like random thoughts, or enjoy snack foods, please follow Matt on the Twitter @amazingmattyp
That man is Jay Cutler. That means the Bears D is going to have to make up the difference - A LOT of difference, and SuperCam has shown no signs of 'fear', 'forethought' or 'immediate tackleability'. Expect the first 'going to the head' flag ever thrown against an NFL QB when Frig'n Newton decides it's time to let Lance Briggs know what's up.
the Tebow distraction when he had the chance.
