We learned a lot of things in Week One of this NFL season, the most important of which was certainly: if you are using my predictions as a key component in a wagering plan designed to make your mortgage payment, you might want to get in the soup line now.
But I'm undaunted - these things happen, and week one is hard to predict, and the weather condiWHATISWRONGWITHYOUMCNARD?39YARDS?!? Gus Frerotte could put together a better game, right this minute, and I'm pretty sure he's spent the last four years on a wharf moving bulk cheeses with a dolly. Regardless, if my life until now has taught us anything, its that abject failure teaches me nothing. Let's review:
I was right about: The Pack, the Eagles, the Cardinals, The Patriots and the Bills sticking it to the Chefs - because I don't know what that is running on the field in Kansas City, but it's not the NFL's storied Kansas City Chiefs.
I was wrong about: Pretty much everything else.
I was really wrong about: The Bears AND the Falcons, Jack Del Rio's grip on coaching, Rex Grossman and the mighty Redskins, and Donovan 'Already In Color Commentator Form' McTanked.
Enough dwelling, the past is the past - here's to a bright and successful week 2! (Insert inspirational quote here about overcoming adversity - maybe Lombardi, or
Raiders @ Bills - Well, the storied mystique that is Ralph Wilson Stadium certainly poses a challenge for any band of men that have never seemingly seen nor heard of the game of football. And until about a year ago, the Raiders certainly could have qualified. But this isn't then, it's now - and both of these teams are better than the well-earned but now-dated jokes about them indicate.
The Fulcrum Point: Big ole' Seabass. Look, Fitzpatrick looks more polished than Campbell, but the Raiders' run game is incomparably more punishing than the Fred and CJ Happy Hour 2 Yard and a Crumple Fun Time Show. All in all, it's two squads that could look fantastic on any given week, but also still have all the potential in the world to be pounded like a round steak on any given week just as easily. The difference maker here is gonna be the same dude it was in the Broncos game: the only kicker I wouldn't bet against in a weapons-allowed street fight.
The Win Goes To: (Flipping coin. Flipping coin again. And a third time.....) Raider Nation
Packers @ Panthers - GB looked just as advertised last week, but in all the explosive offensive huzzah, it may have been easy to miss that their defense wasn't stopping much until the red zone. Newton looked great in his debut, but he's going to falter, it's inevitable. I love Steve Smith, but this is a different secondary than last week. And since Carolina didn't bother to run last week, we'll see how that goes.
The Fulcrum Point: The Packers' ability to cover TEs. If there's any tight end I dislike more than Greg Olsen, it's Jeremy Shockey - ooh, what's that? They'll BOTH be in this game? JOY! Slant patterns and short passes look like a continued weakness for Green Bay, and if you want to beat them, you'll need to take advantage of that using those two d-bags. 'Coverage' isn't the LB corps strong point, never will be. That will make this a closer game.
The Win Goes to: The Packers. All that said, barring a bunch of injuries, the Panthers just aren't near this level yet.
The Cheeeeefs @ Your Detroit Lions - Wow, does Kansas City look not right. Like, in about two weeks, guys are going to start tweeting about how they want to be traded 'not right'. On the flip side, the Lions look angry - like they're still ticked about getting that Bears' game ripped from them at the beginning of last season, and now they're finally out to make everybody pay. They aren't world-class yet, but Detroit is certainly getting there. Suh may break Matt Cassell into easy-to-serve individual take-home portions.
The Fulcrum Point: The Chiefs' coaching staff. Despite how much I think Buffalo is underrated, I need to stress 'I mean by comparison to the JP Losman era'. I don't know how you motivate a team of dudes that walked into the year on the cusp of something great, when your previous week's gameplan was apparently centered around the theory of 'handing your own ass on a custom-engraved platter' to the Bills. Aberration? I don't think so, this is what they looked like for four games in the preseason.
The Win Goes To: The Lions
The Browns @ The Colts? - Uh, I don't know? I have so very little to say here; the Colts looked awfully awful, but the Texans have a better defense than the Browns. I like Colt McCoy's chances better than Collins? I guess?
The Fulcrum Point: The Colts looking any level of 'better' than they did last week? No...Peyton Hillis. This feels like a Peyton Hillis week. The irony is too tremendously wonderful...two Peytons killing the Colts at the same time on both sides of the ball.
The Win Goes To: The Browns. Yes, I most certainly did say that with a believable tone. I can't even call this Upset Pick Of The Week, because there's just not enough data to tell me I should consider the Colts competitive.
Buccaneers @ Vikings - Until I see a notarized medical report that clearly proves that D-Mac has a pulse, I'm off the Vikings train. Neither running game last week lived up to its billing, maybe they'll both help each other out with that conundrum.
The Fulcrum Point: Adrian Peterson. It's always going to be on Peterson in a Vikings game. The only way Donovan McSad is going to find his groove is if AD puts the team on his shoulders early and one-man-gangs the opposition for two quarters, to relieve the pressure on McFavre2011.
The Win Goes To: The Buccaneers - too much persistence, and their measured approach of play will win out until the Vikes learn how to finish. The Bucs look like they want to win now, and are motivated after the tough drop to Detroit last week.
Bears @ Saints - Maybe the game of the week? Chicago looked WAY tougher
than I thought possible in their methodical decapitation of the Falcons. I MAY HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THEM. The Saints remain deadly.
The Fulcrum Point: Brian Urlacher. Hate to be cliched, but fellas that are consistently playing with heart, like 54 does, going through tremendous emotional duress during the week, and showing back up to practice early get my vote for 'Dangerous' every time. And while Colston didn't do much in last week's game, his absence still hurts the Saints, who didn't appear to have their running rotation figured out at all. Hester balances out Sproles.
The Win Goes To: The Bears. There, THAT's my upset of the week. The Bears showed up ready last week, there's no reason for me to think that won't be the case again.
Jaguars @ Jets - Jags outplayed expectations in week one, Jets played about how I expected, maybe a little below - the 'Boys should have won that. With the likelihood of Santonio Holmes being limited if not missing the game entirely, the Jags have a better chance at keeping this controlled with only needing to really worry about the ole' LegShooter at the flank.
The Fulcrum Point: LT. I want to keep writing him off, but LT Style is still fierce, elusive and the critical 'what if?' on the Jets this year. Unrelated - that video never stops getting more awesome. Granted, they NEED Shonn Greene to establish himself as the feature back now in order for that to remain effective; I see that as inevitable, Greene plays tough.
The Win Goes To: The Jets, but it's going to be a scrappy game. Look for a couple of good fights, one of which may be Burress v. Ryan. Hit that hole, NOW HIT THAT HOLE!
Seahawks @ Steelers - Bloodbath.
The Fulcrum Point: It's possible Mike Tomlin murdered some guys in practice this week and it just hasn't hit the papers yet. Outside of that, there's no way that Pittsburgh doesn't manhandle the Seahawks after that drubbing the Ravens laid onto them. If I were Tavaris Jackson, I'd be pushing to let Whitehurst have a shot at things this week.
The Domination Goes To: Steelers. And no matter what happens in the game, I'd make the same call next week.
Ravens @ Titans - Holy lord almighty did the Ravens look awesome last week. And the Titans aren't the Steelers. They didn't even much look like the Titans the previous time out for that matter.
The Fulcrum Point: $34,635 and some change. If we know that Chris Johnson is guaranteed approximately 13.3 millions dollars per year with the new deal, which we do, and we then divide that number by 16 games, because the Titans aren't making the playoffs this year, we can then come up with a per-game average of $831,250 straight to Gold Teeth's bank account. So that first number is what CJ2K made per yard last week. The Ravens are better than the Jags. Enjoy that.
The Win Goes To: The Ravens
Cardinals @ Redskins - This could be a Game O' the Week contender. Serious, no fools. I still don't think the Skins or the Cards are going to be competing for anything important come the end of December, but stranger things have happened.
The Fulcrum Point: REX GROSSMAN IS A MODERN DAY JESUS! Only in his case, the 'giant rock in front of the cave' was actually 'a clipboard next to Shanny'. Fella looked good last week; so did Kolb in all honesty. Both passing games performed admirably, and the running attacks were better than anticipated. BUT THERE IS ONLY ONE REX GROSSMAN, AND HE WILL LEAD US TO THE PROMISED LAND!
The Win Goes To: The Redskins. I almost forgot that Shanahan knows how to coach. Why did the Broncos cut him loose again?
Cowboys @ 49ers - Oh yes, here's another team I grossly underestimated: The '9ers. Featuring a couple of fellas who the fans seem to want out of their towns, and both still have some grevious things to contend with on both side of the ball.
The Fulcrum Point: Romo's mental well-being. Troy Aikman put it together better than anybody; Romo IS the reason the Cowboys are in games....but even he's starting to waver. Taking the brunt of the loss last week solely on his shoulders is a sign he's starting to believe the negative, and that'll kill a guy. As much as I can't stand Jay Cutler, the one thing that guy will NEVER do is throw himself under the bus entirely, and that's how a quarterback should be wired-in.
The Win Goes To: The 49ers. That defense should have a field day running through the Dallas front line - it's going to resemble a Walmart at 5am on Black Friday, only the Niners aren't as mean and black-hearted as the deal-seeking missiles-dressed-as-mothers at the Walmart - and Bryant being banged up won't help.
Bengals @ Broncos - Uh, I don't know? I thought the Broncos were going to look better. I thought the Bengals were going to look a lot worse. On the other hand, the Browns aren't the Raiders, or something like that.
The Fulcrum Point: Eh, whoever makes fewer mistakes. That's trite. Scratch that, the man who makes all the difference in this game is MiracleBeard himself, Kyle 'Effin' Orton. I love Orton - everywhere he goes, everybody wants to replace him, and the fella just doesn't care. That's awesome. Wish he had a serious gun, but you can't have everything in this life, so I guess the beard will have to do.
The Win Goes To: The Broncos. I don't care if Lloyd and Moreno are declared dead or deported for the game, I just gut-feeling see Orton toughing it out and making smarter decisions than Dalton, or Gradkowski, or Akili Smith, or whoever the Bengals throw out there this week.
Texans @ Dolphins - THE HOUSTON TEXANS ARE THE AFC CHAMPIONS!!! Wait, they aren't yet? Never mind. The Texans looked pretty dominant last week; I, too, could make the same claim had I chosen to visit my six-year old's recess and toss a couple haymakers at a few of her classmates. The Dolphins, on the flip side, played out of their minds in what was still a futile effort....but we did learn that Chad Henne might not be the worst Dolphin quarterback ever (for the record, that's a silly argument anyway, because it's clearly this guy. Forever.).
The Fulcrum Point: Texans D, again. It was clear that Reggie Bush is still never going to be 'the only guy' anywhere, but that didn't make the Dolphins any less effective for the most part. This is a real offense, with a real scheme, and it's going to be a real display of how much Wade Phillips has gotten through to the Houston defensive front.
The Win Goes To: Kind of wavering on this one - I'm sticking with the Texans, until they show me there's real reason to doubt.
Chargers @ Patriots - The Chargers held Donovan McReally? to 39 yards last week and the Vikings still could have won that game. Conversely, The Second Coming of The Chad didn't go so hot for New England, so Tom Brady was restricted to only half-a-grand in yards and 4 touchdowns. Should be a decent showdown, but you do realize that 85 is going to get this eventually, right? And the Pats don't even need him to.
The Fulcrum Point: Interception stats. If somebody can get a couple, that's going to make a ton of difference in the end result.
The Win Goes To: The Patriots. I just can't go against Brady and Belichick when they come out of the gate strong. Should be a tight one, though. Brady should be held to under 700 yards, all things considered.
Eagles @ Falcons - I don't know what the Falcons were doing last week, but by all means, please explain it to me at your convenience. The Eagles did what I thought they would - which was start figuring out what to do with their Madden custom-league roster. Expect this one to feature some of the better fan-signs cropping up and getting quickly cut away from.
The Fulcrum Point: Vick. You know he wants to keep sticking it to them. He's just keeping his mouth shut with all that prison-maturity kicking in. And you also know he's going to. And then he's going to thank all the wonderful Atlanta fans who still love him no matter what.
The Win Goes To: SuperEagles9000
Rams @ Giants - Two teams that are both already broken square down in yet another argument for my ongoing post-doctorate thesis 'Why Monday Night Football Means Nothing Since It Went To ESPN'.
The Fulcrum Point: Eh, the team will the most players not currently in surgery at the end of the contest should have an advantage.
The Win Goes To: The Rams. Only because I'm still physically angry at how lackluster the Giants felt last week. The Rams kept on fighting, the Giants just looked downtrodden. Unless I was missing something.
That's it, let's go eat too many chili dogs!
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