A lot of NFL Draft debate has swirled over which D-Line prospect should be taken first in the draft coming up in April. Since before the National Championship game and until the last couple of weeks the near consensus was Auburn's Nick Fairley. After a good combine workout and and people being "scared" by Fairley's lack of production before this year, Marcell Dareus of Alabama has moved into the #1 spot. I am here to let everyone know that Fairley is the guy, and will be the guy at the NFL level (and not just because my fiance takes credit for finding him while watching college football with me).
Lately I have been comparing soon to be draft picks with current NFL players, I will continue that here. Marcell Dareus reminds me of the Cowboys Marcus Spears. A decent yet unspectacular player, look at Spears just about 5 or 6 years after drafting him the Cowboys are letting him walk in free agency. Why? Because he is not worth the money it will take to lock up a former 1st round draft pick to his second contract. Just think how much it will cost you to lock up Dareus after his first contract if he is drafted in the top 10. Spears and Dareus have more in common than size, they both had college experience playing a position of great need in the NFL but that little value is placed, 3-4 DE. In the NFL the 3-4 DE is expected to take on blockers to free up the linebackers, they do not get a lot of stats, it is not a glory position, so even if Dareus is better than I expect, the numbers will never bear that out. Could Dareus become an impact player at the next level? Yes, if he is drafted to play NT or 3-technique in an upfield, disruptive, penetrating type defense where his speed and quickness for a big guy could give him an advantage. The only problem with that is he is not used to playing that way, and would have to learn new skills and techniques with a move inside. Without proper coaching he will just be a guy that takes on double teams in the middle of the line and doesn't make many plays.
On the other hand Nick Fairley reminds me of pre-Washington Redskins Albert Haynesworth. An explosive, disruptive DT with a mean fiery attitude that will keep his teammates motivated. While he showed up at the combine a little bit lighter than expected, that does not phase me, look at the Cowboys Jay Ratliff, he is a very undersized DT that with a quick first step is able to get in the backfield before O-linemen are even out of their stance. I am sure I will hear some arguments about Fairley being a "1 year wonder" which I normally shy away from, but there is an explanation for him. He played at Junior College, the played 2 years at Auburn. I believe his first year at Auburn was him just getting used to the competition of playing against SEC teams week in and week out, and that he has steadily improved each year. Do I think he is ready to step in and have an Ndamukong Suh type impact? No. The reason is because he needs to learn to use his hands better, he won't be able to just overpower NFL offensive linemen like he did in college, but with his motor and his fiery demeanor I believe he will be difference maker that sets the tone for his team, sooner rather than later.
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