Well this could be quite the undertaking, the Colts defense. The Colts are a team that spends a lot of money on a few superstars (mainly offense) and then fills in the rest of the roster with draft picks and low priced free agents. Because their defense was so depleted by injury this year, it is extremely hard to see where they are at. By my count their starting secondary missed a combined 44 games, and their linebacking corp missing 13+ games. This is a team that tries to win with offense and plug in players at defense, and lets try to take a look at that defense today.
Defensive Line - Lets start with defensive end. Indy has had one of the best pass rush tandems over the last 9 seasons. Dwight Freeney has been the superstar with Robert Mathis being an above average partner. Freeney is still elite, but has had trouble staying healthy over the course of a 16 game season recently. That along with his salary ballooning to over $14 million in 2012, look for the team to rework his contract or let him go. The Colts do not pay players for past production. On the other side Mathis who has benefited greatly from teams constantly trying to double team Freeney has quietly averaged over 10 sacks a year the past 9 seasons. He is in the final year of his contract and just hit the age of 30, and with him staying away from OTA's last year we already know he is unhappy about it. I think that this next year the Colts have to make a decision between Mathis and Freeney, and they may choose Mathis as he is slightly younger and has been more durable. Speaking of replacing them, the Colts tried to get their next edge rusher in the first round of the draft 2 years ago when they swung and missed on TCU's Jerry Hughes. Hughes has finally started making progress getting some playing time spelling Mathis, but will need to make huge strides this year to show that he can be a part of the future.
The defensive tackle position is where the colts front four needs the most work, their run defense ranks near the bottom. DT Fili Moala was by far their best interior tackle, and his main role seems to be tying up blockers so the linebackers can make plays, but he needs to show some more descriptiveness when his number is called. The other 2 DT's are Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir, neither one of these guys showed much. Muir has always been the higher rated tackle, but I see more upside with Johnson and think the team may keep him around for depth. I expect the Colts to address their defensive tackle position maybe as early as the 2nd round, look for them to target:
- Stephen Paea - Oregon State - This is a natural leader with a non stop motor. His quickness allows him to excel as a run defender (just what Indy needs). He is still raw as a football player since he has only played American style for 3 years before college. I think this kid has a ton of upside and will only get better.
- Marvin Austin - North Carolina - He is a guy that has a great first step and can get in the backfield quickly and locate the ball carrier, and he has the size and skills to eventually develop into an above average pass rusher. Needs to work on anchoring himself against double teams, and his work ethic and dedication have been questioned which is why being around veterans like Freeney and Mathis would be great for him.
Linebackers - This is a position where injuries may have not been as bad as originally thought. It looks like the future is now with Pat Angerer and fellow rookie Kavell Connor who showed promise. Angerer filled in when Gary Brackett went down and proved that he is ready to lead this defense going forward after he finished 2nd on the team in tackles and still led the team in special teams tackles, he has the range to play MLB in the Tampa 2 but will probably play SLB while Brackett is still around. Connor was a 7th round draft choice expected to play only special teams (where he did very well), this year look for him to be battle Tyjuan Hagler for the starting WLB spot and at the least he will go "beast mode" on special teams again. Based on history I do not expect the team to bring back Clint Sessions, Indy is known for letting LB's walk when their contracts are up and I see no reason to keep him and delay the development of their younger guys.
Secondary - This is a fairly tricky area to address, the team had a lot of injuries in the secondary, but still managed to have a lot of guys step in and play well. Lets start with Bob Sanders who the Colts signed to a huge contract 3 years ago and only got 9 games out of him, they finally released him this year and hopefully they learned their lesson about giving oft-injured guys record contracts. His replacement, Antoine Bethea, stepped in and gave the Colts no reason to keep waiting on Sanders, and he is locked up at manageable salaries until 2014. He is a safety that can play the run well, but is more comfortable in pass coverage (primarily deep zone) where he is very good at reading the QB to get a jump on passes. The other safety, Melvin Bullit is a free agent whose best bet would be to re-sign with the Colts after he missed the final 12 games of the season. He is a good compliment to Bethea as he is stronger playing near the line of scrimmage but struggles to in pass coverage (route recognition and stiff hips). If Indy cannot lock up Melvin Bullit, they may have to address the safety position a lot earlier than they would like in what is one of the weakest safety classes at the top of the draft. The Colts must draft some depth at safety, and look for them to address that in rounds 5-7 where they will look for primarily special teams players that have some potential to develop into a safety in a few years (may target: Jeron Johnson - Boise State - Smart but struggles in zone, and Joseph Lefeged (disciplined w/good instincts).
Cornerback is the position that is tough to predict for the Colts. Their corners were injured most of the year and its hard to predict what they will do going forward. I think they will bring back Jacob Lacey as special teams guy and to compete for the nickel spot in training camp, he lacks size and was targeted quite a bit by opposing QB's late in the year. Kelvin Hayden is scheduled to make slightly above $6 million while counting for over $9 million on the cap. He should be retained but I think he is one injury away from being cut, when healthy he is their best corner and his effectiveness in zone is what makes him valuable to Indy. Jerraud Powers was playing the best of any CB on their roster last year when he was hurt, and should come back to man down the spot opposite Hayden. After that its a toss up, but if they can stay healthy and bring Melvin Bullit back, there is no reason why this secondary cannot be a strength of the Colt defense.
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