Thursday, March 10, 2011

Off-Season Priorities - Broncos Offense

With the Denver Broncos having so many holes to fill across both the offense and defense, this is going to be difficult.  I believe they have had a subpar offseason so far by hiring John Elway to run football operations, the guy has no experience with anything at the NFL level except throwing a football, and I do not think those skills necessarily translate into knowing how to run an NFL team.  Also they hired John Fox as coach, yep, the same John Fox that led the Carolina Panthers to have the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, the same John Fox that presided over over a 73-71 record (barely .500) after 9 seasons as the Panthers head coach.  At lease Fox can say that he left the team in better shape then when he inherited it, they were 1-15 when he took over, and 2-14 his final season.  The worst aspect for the Broncos is that they are rebuilding....again....after beginning a new rebuilding process only 2 years before this when Josh McDaniels was hired.

Quarterback - This is the most important position on a football team, and the Broncos do not have a sure fire answer to it.  It looks like Tebow is the long term answer, but with changes throughout the organization he may only get 1 more year to prove it, most head coaches and Team Presidents like to bring in their own QB, but Tebow may have a little bit longer as John Fox is a defensive specialist.  Many fans will also point to the games Tebow played in (last 4) as proof that he can make it.  Come on guys, he played against the Houston Texans (worst pass defense in the league), Oakland Raiders (enough said), Arizona Cardinals (really?), and one decent team the San Diego Chargers (58.2 QB rating).  Do I think Tebow is going to be a star player in the league (he will always sell jersey's though)?  No, but I think his work ethic and character could lead him to be an average QB in the league, and a guy that has more value as a leader and good locker room example than anything else.  He will show flashes of turning the corner here and there, but I do not think he will ever make it to elite (top 10).  The other QB on the roster that could be the starter if Tebow struggles or the labor stoppage cancels training camps is the NFL's new Doug Flutie, the QB that no team wants to be their starting QB, but the one that keeps beating out the guy they want.  I think they need to keep Orton around as a guy that can spell Tebow when he struggles (or inevitably gets hurt if he keeps running) and if/when Tebow flames out he should continue to keep the offense respectable while they search for the QB of the future.  They also have Brady Quinn on the roster, a QB that I was very high on until he got drafted by Cleveland.  He had all the tools to be successful, but I think playing for the Browns ruined him (and most every other player that goes there, especially QB's).  Quinn's only hope to redeem himself is if the QB position is decimated by injuries.

Running Back - Knowshon Moreno is the Broncos feature back, and while he has struggled with some injuries at times he has been able to average a very good 4 yards per carry in his 2 years and it appears he will only get better.  Moreno's strengths are that he does not dance around in the hole, he is a 1-cut runner who gets upfield fast, though he could stand to be a little more patient to let his blocks develop.  Another strong off-season in the weight room should allow Knowshon to add some bulk to his lower body allowing him to finish off runs.  Knowshon's backup, Correll Buckhalter will probably be released after a new CBA is reached, while he was a good mentor and teacher to Moreno his 2.5 yard per carry average, his 32 years of age, and $2 million salary will probably be the end of him as the team will surely look to get younger across the entire roster.  Lance Ball has a chance to make the team only if he contributes on special teams and possibly as a change of pace back, but with his size (5'9") I do not see him as being anything more than a 3rd back, and quite possibly not making the team.  The other back on the roster is Laurence Maroney who was acquired in a mid season trade with the Patriots, after landing on the other side of the law (marijuana arrest) and carrying the ball for an embarrassing 2.1 yards per carry, the Broncos chose not to extend a tender offer to him.  Look for the Broncos to host free agent backs and also check the middle rounds for a compliment back to Knowshon.  I think Cal's Shane Vereen would be a great back to team with Knowshon, he is a great route runner, can work out of the slot, and has shown exceptional ability in pass protection.  Shane would be a great pick in the 3rd or 4th round for Denver as that perfect 3rd down back or could take over the job if Moreno went down.


Wide Receiver - This is the deepest position for the Broncos on paper.  They have the NFL leader in yards returning in Brandon Lloyd who after 8 years in the league finally had his breakout season and looked like the 1st round draft pick he was supposed to be.  They have him under contract for 1 more year which should give last years #1 pick Demaryius Thomas time to recover from his injuries and become a factor.  Unfortunately Thomas is close to being labeled "injury prone" as he came into the NFL with a foot injury, spent most of his rookie year dealing with foot/ankle injuries, and then just last month tore his Achilles and had to have surgery.  His recovery is expected to take 6-8 months, and if he cannot return to the form that made him Denver's #1 pick, look for Denver to try and extend Brandon Lloyd instead (if he shows similar production again).  Eddie Royal is locked in as the slot receiver for Denver, while he needs to improve his route running/coverage reading, he gives the team a dangerous slot option that can take the ball all the way every time he touches it.  He also provides value on special teams as the Bronco's primary punt and kick returner.  Jabar Gaffney who is a free agent should be retained by Denver as an insurance policy against another injury by Demaryius Thomas.  While Gaffney lacks the speed to run by defenses, he is a smart wideout that runs good routes and is effective as long as he is not expected to be the #1 option.  They also spent a 3rd pick last year on Eric Decker out of Minnesota, he is a large WR (6'2") that is a great character guy who can be used in the red zone (great body control) and is not afraid to go across the middle, he is a long term project for the team that should develop into a solid contributor.

Tight End - After Denver cut former starting TE Daniel Graham this off-season, it became an area of need in the draft and free agency (if there is FA).  They need to not only find a TE to make an instant impact and be a safety valve for the QB (especially if Tebow is starting), but they need to get some added depth.  Right now they have 2nd year guy Richard Quinn, who is an above average blocker, but is just that, a 2nd string TE.  Their other TE on the roster is Daniel Coats who is more of a fullback/H-back than he is a TE, and while he has good hands, is not a threat to gain many yards.  With all the holes on defense I do not know how big a priority the TE will be Denver in the draft, but I believe they need to grab somebody in 3rd-4th round.  Some guys that would work well for them are:
- Luke Stocker - Tennessee - This is the best all around TE in the draft in my opinion.  He is a guy that was cut from the cloth of Jason Witten, solid all the way around.  He will not wow you with athleticism, but will do a good job finding holes in zone coverage, catching the ball, or blocking to open up running lanes.  Unfortunately for Denver he will go in the 2nd round most likely.
- Weslye Saunders - South Carolina - Here is a guy who has all the physical tools in the world to succeed.  He will go up and get the ball and bring it in every time, has the speed to run by anybody, and the size (6'5 1/2") to outjump any defender.  He brings some character concerns as he was suspended in college, and will need to show the dedication to becoming a better blocker.


Offensive Line - The analysis of the offensive line can begin with LT Ryan Clady.  As early as 2 years ago Clady was one of the best young tackles in the league, but after suffering a knee injury he has struggled to regain his previous form.  This year he took a positive step back and next year should be 100%, there is no need to address this position.  At LG was a Ben Hamilton and Russ Hochstein combination, neither was that good and this is an area that will be addressed late in the draft or free agency, with the majority of their draft picks destined to help the defense look for them to find a "stop gap" guard to just keep the seat warm.  That stop gap player could be Hochstein if they can get him at a decent price.  Center is a position that is completely open, Casey Weigmann was released last month after he struggled in 2010, and I think current 2nd year player Jeff Byers from USC has the size (6'1 301lbs) to man the center position.  Chris Kuper the RG had an average year and with his height (6'4) he may not be suited to the power running game that the Broncos are looking to employ, but if he can add some bulk to his frame I could see him being a fit as a swing tackle/guard and being a valuable backup.  RT is manned by Ryan Harris, and he is one of the elite RT's in the game, the only thing he needs to improve his game is to get more power in his legs and develop that "nasty streak" that the best O-linemen in the game have.

While the offensive line needs some help, it will only get it this year if they happen to find a late round "gem" as this team has so many holes that this year it appears the draft is being used to shore up that dismal defense.

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