NFL Draft Quick Hits - Dontari Poe - Biggest Bust Potential

By:  Bobby Shores

We all know by now that the first round of the NFL draft is a crapshoot at best with about a 55% success rate, meaning that about 14 players from this year's first round will be a bust and fans from about 13 teams will ultimately be unhappy about who their team selected (remember the Browns, Patriots & Bengals each have 2 picks).

So how do you determine which players are most likely to "bust", well it's an inexact science at worst, and a random guessing game at best. Me, I tend to look at guys who have shot up draft boards after less than stellar college careers (Blaine Gabbert who I didn't even know until after the college season), or ones who make huge jumps because of what they did at the Combine (Vernon Gholston), there is also looking at historical data like this site I had never heard of did (their research looks sound, just something I don't have time to do) and looking at the success rate by position which shows that wide receivers, quarterbacks and defensive tackles have the highest bust rate.

I did a couple pieces like this last year, and this will be part of my "2012 NFL Draft All-Bust List" to be published soon. My 2011 version is still the most popular article that I have ever had, and while it is still to early to tell how accurate I was, there are a few players on there that have already largely dissapointed

So who are some potential first round prospects that seem prime to be bust candidates? Well the number one on my board right now is Dontari Poe

When Poe first declared for the draft he was valued as a second round pick who could potentially work his way up into late first round consideration, but after a combine where he put up amazing numbers he has rocketed into Top 10-15 consideration. I mean, it isn't every day that a 6'4 350lb guy can run a sub 5.0 second 40-yard dash, bench 225lbs 44 times and an amazing 1.7 second 10-yard split (shows his explosiveness off the snap, much better indication of skill than 40 time, seriously when will a defensive tackle EVER run 40 yards in a straight line?).

So now we have this amazing athlete who is rocketing up draft boards after everyone now knows how great he is in the weight room and running in tights with no blockers, must have just gone unnoticed because he played at a Conference-USA school and wasn't on national TV every weekend, right? Wrong!

I hate doing reports on players I haven't watched a bunch, but I have YouTube'd video on him, and found some film on him, I also looked at his numbers because I figure a guy this athletically superior to his compeition had to have put up some strong numbers.....

Of the film I watched, he rarely "explodes" off the line which his combine numbers would seem to show he should do on every snap. Yes, he seems to be the first lineman moving at the snap of the ball, but because he seems to stand straight up, he gets pushed around to much by smaller and weaker linemen. I keep hearing people question his motor and effort on plays, in the very limited film I watched I did not see this, but if guys like Mike Mayock say its true, then I believe it. How can a guy this physically superior to everybody he plays against not dominate on nearly every snap?

With limited film work, I had to really look at his stats, which can be difficult for an interior defensive lineman because they are not usually big stat generators in the first place. But since Poe played for such a small school, in such a weak football conference and against such inferior competition then he should have generated solid stats, right? Wrong!

In 2011, his final college season, Poe registered a whopping 21 tackles and 1 sack. Yes, 1 SACK?!?!?! How do you not manage more than 1 sack against Arkansas State, Marshall, Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee, Rice and I could go on. I mean was Poe so good that teams just went away from him every single snap? No because even then the coaches would have moved him around pre-snap so that he would be involved. I mean the guy was only second team All-Conference USA??

I have also heard that Poe just needs "coaching", and that he has not had somebody show him how to properly use his hands, and with those two ingredients that he will receive in the NFL game then he will be a superstar. It's not like his coach at Memphis doesn't have some cred, Mike DuBose did coach the 1999 Alabama Crimson Tide to an SEC Championship. I think he knows how to coach some defensive linemen.

I am not saying that Poe will never make it in the NFL, I just don't think the potential reward is worth the risk of a high first round prospect.

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