Last week I unveiled my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Bust" List, this week, I am heading in a different direction. This is guys expected to go in the top few rounds that I see as the most solid prospects, some of them will be obvious, others may surprise you.....
1) Patrick Peterson-DB-LSU - Patrick is the "do everything" DB from LSU, a guy who was a starter on a National Championship contending team the moment he stepped on campus as a freshman 3 years ago. This is a guy who has prototypical safety size (6'1 1/4" - 219lbs) but cornerback speed, quickness, ball skills, and instincts. He will also be a Top 10 return threat in the NFL the moment he is drafted. I believe that Peterson is a once every 10 year type player, someone that can lock up 1-on-1 against a teams best receiver and shut him down, or shut down 1/2 of the field. He will have two distinct careers, one as a shutdown corner, and another as a ball hawking safety. What is the downside? I cannot find any....but I am not a scout that is paid to pick apart his game. He is the cleanest (on & off the field), safest, pick in this entire draft. Finally, he reminds me of a larger more physical Darrell Revis...yep I went there, and I am sticking to it.
2) Julio Jones-WR-Alabama - Not only do I feel that Julio Jones is far and away the best WR in the draft, I feel he is one of the best and even safest players in the draft! He has the body type of Terrell Owens, but he has better hands, will willingly go across the middle, out jump 95% of DB's, and will be a good teammate on and off the field. Jones should be (and very well may) a Top 10 pick off of his measurables alone, which were far superior to the "consensus" #1 WR in the draft A.J. Green. Listed below are a sample of Jones's athletic freakishness:
Height: 6'2 3/4"
Weight: 220lbs
40 Yard Dash: 4.39 seconds (freakishly fast for 220lbs)
Vertical Jump: 38.5"
Broad Jump: 11'3" Broad Jump (2" shy of the Combine record)
What really stands out for me about Julio Jones is that he will never be a liability at any point during the game. He is a threat no matter what the situation is, a threat to burn a defender deep, turn a short catch and run into a big gain, take the ball on a reverse, or break open a running lane for a running back to take one to the house...Yes I know you should not draft a WR because of his blocking skills, and I agree with that, but when you have a WR that blocked for one of the NCAA's best running games, and was a willing blocker in that offense who is also the most athletically gifted and skilled WR, then you have an unselfish player, willing to do anything.
3) Ryan Mallett-QB-Arkansas - Ryan Mallett is the #1 QB in this draft, hands down. He is more NFL ready right now than Gabbertt, Newton, Tebow, & McCoy (and for the last two I mean he is more ready now than they are RIGHT NOW, even after 1 year in the NFL). There I said it. I am not buying into all the "rumors" (and that is all they are) of Mallett and drug use/addiction and not being mature enough for the next level.
Here is what we do now about Ryan Mallett; he has the size, arm strength, and accuracy to compete right now with the best in the NFL. He ran Bobby Petrino's complex offense at the University of Arkansas, where he had the opportunity to audible between 3 different plays on most snaps, and he ran it to near perfection. He can read defenses, go through progressions, and finally developed "touch" on his short and intermediate passes. His pocket awareness is that of a seasoned NFL vet, and his on field competitiveness is second to none. He also has shown great leadership throughout his career (at both Michigan and Arkansas), which culminated at the Combine when the word on the street was that Mallett quickly became the leader of not only his group of QB's, but in every other setting he was in. Some people say that he was "overly emotional on the field and the sidelines", to me, it was no different than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or any other NFL QB getting on his teammates or themselves for mistakes and getting them fired up (no I am not comparing Mallett to those guys, just his demeanor). Just read David Hyde's "Draft Winds" and my first piece on Ryan Mallett and I promise that you will be begging your team to draft him.
4) Nick Fairley-DT-Auburn - During the run up to and in the first couple of weeks after the National Championship game, Nick Fairley was the near consensus #1 pick in the draft and without a doubt the #1 defensive linemen. So how could he fall to the bottom half of the Top 10 and not even the best at his position (he is way better than Marcell Dareus, trust me) even though no more games have been played? I can't figure it out either, but here is what I do know. I do know that he was the most dominant defender in the NCAA last year (dominated like Ndamukong Suh did in 2009), he did it against the best competition in the NCAA (SEC), and he made impact plays when they mattered most. While he is probably best suited as a 4-3 DT, I could see him excelling as a "Jay Ratliff" type DT in the 3-4(they are very similar sized even though Fairley would need to add about 10 lbs. to hold the point) and they are both amazingly quick off the snap. His mean streak and emotion he plays with has been viewed as a negative by some scouts, but I view it as a positive for an interior defensive lineman. The only holes in his game? it seems to take him a little bit of time to adjust to new levels of competition, so I do not expect to see him dominate as quickly as Suh did. The other hold in his game is that he has not played a game in a couple of months, so scouts have obviously forgotten how dominant he was at the highest level of amateur competition (if we are still calling the NCAA and especially Auburn "amateur")
**UPDATE - I have already gone to press with this, but with the news coming out today that JaMarcus Russell is a close friend, and that Fairley is missing meetings with potential employers I am going to reevaluate my stance on him, so stay tuned****
5) Mike Pouncey-OL-Florida - I could take the "normal" route here and compare him to his brother, but these are two different guys, just with similar body's. The reason why I am putting him on this list is because I do not think that we rate interior offensive linemen high enough, and if there were a rookie wage scale (heck even without) I think you would see many more interior O-linemen going in the top half of the first round. With hindsight being 20/20 would anybody say that Logan Mankins, Maurkice Pouncey, Alan Faneca, Nick Mangold, etc. weren't worth Top 10-15 picks? Exactly, and if you said no its because you are lying to yourself and not willing to think outside the box. Heck, if all of those guys I just named were available in this draft right now, and knowing what we know about them, I guarantee they would all be worth a Top 10 pick (except maybe Faneca because of his age). Saying all that, Mike Pouncey is just as good as those guys (except Mangold and his brother because Mike is horrible at snapping the ball), so I am not going to "break down his game", just know that in 5 years when everybody is "redoing the 2011 draft" that Mike Pouncey will be in the top half of the 1st round, and not in the bottom half.
6) Derek Sherrod-OT-Mississippi St. - Sherrod is a guy that I was not initially high on because for some unknown reason I did not think he had "it", that was until someone mocked him to the Colts and I said to myself that I had to go back and look again. Now that I look at some videos I found online, and get to know the kid some more (well I read a lot about him) did I discover a "diamond in the rough". Derek is a mature, intelligent kid that appears to only need some work on confidence in his ability. The guy is ideal for today's NFL, excellent in pass blocking, using his quick feet to get into position and his exceptionally long arms to push speed rushers to the outside and form a nice pocket for a QB to step into; and I think his balance is good enough to handle power rushers. Unlike most scouts I think he has the frame to add some lower body bulk and become a force in the running game. I don't know what it is about this guy, but I see a lot of Michael Oher in him (who's struggles I believe were caused due to some minor knee injuries and all the offensive line shuffling and not just him).
7) Andy Dalton-QB-TCU - Christian Ponder-QB-Florida St. - The reason I have these guys listed together is simple, they both have all the tools to be a very good NFL Quarterback, but both have 1 piece of the puzzle that could break them.
Dalton has everything it takes, came from a winning program, is smart, a leader, knows how to manage a game, but he lacks in arm strength a little. What he needs is to get drafted by a team that has a solid run game and a good defense, he will not go out there and sling it for 300 yards a game and get carried off the field Rudy style, but given the right system, and not asked to do to much early on in his career and you could see the next Super Bowl Winning QB (who plays second fiddle to his defense). Personally I think he will get drafted by a team that he does not need to carry (Titans, Dolphins, Vikings, Panthers but they seem intent on setting their franchise back 5 years by picking Cam Newton).
Christian Ponder on the other hand has everything it takes to be an NFL QB, he has the arm, accuracy, leadership...he has it all, but we do not know if his body can handle it. Were all the college injuries legit, or a sign that his body is just not built for the violence of football. If everything works out and the injuries are not indicative of his long term health, then you are looking at the next Drew Brees (not quite as accurate) or Matt Schaub (except he is more NFL ready).
8) Prince Amukamara-CB-Nebraska - The only thing that keeps me from putting Prince at or above Peterson's level is his lack of experience, he only started 2 years compared to the 3 for Peterson. What keeps me high on him is that he played mostly man coverage in college, but I think his skills will ultimately make him better in zone coverage (good read and reaction skills, has the speed to cover a lot of ground i.e. good range). And with the talent to excel in zone coverage and his other skills I think we will be comparing him to Champ Bailey in 5 years, which is the ultimate compliment for cornerbacks right now.
Well there is my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Pro" List. Keep checking back for my 2011 NFL Pre-Draft "All-Sleeper/Underrated" List which will be coming soon
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